Tottenham and Leicester meet on Sunday afternoon and Paul Robinson believes that the visitors can boost their Champions League hopes...
"If Rodgers’ men can play anywhere near their best, I make them the value at the prices."
Tottenham v Leicester
Sunday 19 July, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports
Don't believe the stats
As Jose Mourinho would have you know, Spurs have won 12 of 24 league matches since he arrived, which is significantly better than the three out of 12 that Mauricio Pochettino won at the start of this season.
That doesn't quite tell the tale though, as Tottenham had some great times under Poch, and perhaps just as important, they played some good football too.
That hasn't been the case under Mourinho, and even though he's had the likes of Son and Kane back since the league resumed, the football hasn't been that much easier on the eye.
Securing a place in next season's Europa League is the priority in their final two games, and that's not a given with Sheffield United and Arsenal just one and two points behind them, respectively.
Champions League so close for Leicester
The Foxes have bigger aspirations than the Europa, as they are in a three-way battle with Chelsea and Manchester United for the final two Champions League places.
Brendan Rodgers' men were in pole position prior to lockdown, but their results have suffered since, however they did beat Sheffield United on Thursday.
Their final match of the season is at home to Manchester United, and while they hold the advantage on goal difference at present, if they lose here and United beat West Ham, that almost certainly won't be the case afterwards.
Mourinho to be denied a 13th win
There are no odds-on shots here, as the hosts are [2.38], the visitors [3.25] and the draw is available to back at [3.6].
Tottenham have only been beaten once since they returned to action - a 3-1 loss at Bramall Lane. They have won four of their last six, and that includes victories over Arsenal and Newcastle, most recently.
Leicester, meanwhile, have been beaten three times in all competitions - twice in the league and once in the FA Cup. They have won just two of eight, but they both did come within their four latest outings.
If Rodgers' men can play anywhere near their best, I make them the value at the prices. That is a big 'if' at present however, and I think the safer option is to back them draw no bet at [2.34].
I much prefer the Leicester midfield against the Tottenham one, so I am hoping that they can dominate the game in the middle of the park and get Jamie Vardy into some good positions behind the Spurs defence.
Don't expect a classic in North London
It is a bit of a pick'em when it comes to Over/Under 2.5 Goals. The former is trading at around the [1.93] mark, while the latter is [2.02].
Both of Tottenham's two latest victories have had at least three goals, with no clean sheet kept in them. Prior to that though, they had four out of five go Under.
Leicester have also had more matches end with two goals or fewer than not since the season resumed, and I expect a relatively cautious approach from both teams on Sunday afternoon.
Key Opta Stat
Leicester are looking to complete their first league double over Tottenham since 1998-99 following their 2-1 victory at the King Power Stadium earlier this season.
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2019/20 P/L (1pt each bet)
Back Leicester Draw no Bet @ [2.34]
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [2.02]