Against All Odds: Tigre to pounce on defensive mistakes

Paul Robinson
30 March 2015

Tigre can go fifth with a win tonight

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There's late night action from Argentina for Paul Robinson today as he thinks that those who stay up for the Tigre versus Defensa y Justica match will be rewarded with goals.

"In fact, if we look back to the previous season, four of their last five in front of their own fans have had at least three goals scored."

Lay Under 2.5 goals in Tigre v Defensa y Justica @ 1.68/13

Tigre v Defensa y Justica
Tuesday March 31, 01:10 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video

Hosts, Tigre, have made a decent start to their season as after half a dozen outings they are up in 11th place, and if they win their game in hand here they'll go fifth. I wouldn't put you off backing them at odds-against but the value has to be in the goal markets given the prices.

Gustavo Alfaro's side have played twice at home this year and while the first finished 1-0, the fixture last time against Atletico Rafaela saw under 2.5 goal layers paid out. In fact, if we look back to the previous season, four of their last five in front of their own fans have had at least three goals scored.

Defensa y Justica were promoted from the second tier and they are holding their own in the top flight thus far. A couple of wins and a draw from their initial half a dozen fixtures has them in mid-table and with a Copa Argentina win on Friday, confidence will be high.

As far as the goals go, three of their last six in all competitions have gone over 2.5 and while only one of their three on the road followed suit, it was their most recent. That was a 2-1 loss at Boca Juniors so if Dario Franco's men can score there, you certainly wouldn't rule them out of netting at Coloso de Victoria.

I would argue that there is a 50/50 chance of this bet landing, so with under 2.5 goals trading much shorter than evens at around the 1.68/13 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Tigre v Defensa y Justica @ 1.68/13

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 87 pts
Returned: 73.45 pts
P/L: - 13.55 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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