The Goalscorer Gamble: Make it Mata

Dan Fitch
13 April 2013

Juan Mata is bound to be involved in any goal that Chelsea score, but will it be him that hits the target?

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Dan Fitch is putting his money on Chelsea's main man Juan Mata when he goes up against Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley.

"Cavani has hit 22 goals during this campaign and with four goals in his last three games, I’m backing him at likely odds of around 2.56/4 to add to his tally."

Meatloaf once sang that two out of three ain't bad. I've no idea what he'd make out of two out of five, which is how many correct predictions this column delivered last week.

To be fair, it was actually two out of four, because I managed to tip one scorer who didn't even feature in the squad. So with getting your stake back on that, along with Christian Benteke at 3.211/5 and Alvaro Negredo at 1.910/11, you would have actually made a small profit on backing all five selections.

It's not small profits were after though. We want big ones and we start our quest in the familiar waters of the FA Cup.

Manchester City are the favourites for this weekend's second semi-final, but I somehow fancy that it will be Chelsea that progress. I'll be the first to admit that this might just be the wishful thinking of a Spurs fan who wants Chelsea to play as many matches as possible.

Regardless of my self-interest, Juan Mata stands out at odds of 3.8514/5 to find the net. The Spaniard has been Chelsea's most important player this season, excelling at a time of turbulence at the club.

Mata has scored 18 goals this season and assisted an amazing 32. As Chelsea's second top scorer this season (after some bloke called Fernando Torres), his price of 3.8514/5 to find the net looks far too big.

From the FA Cup we make the short journey to the Premier League, where I like the chances of Southampton knocking a few past a charitable West Ham defence.

It is a testament to the progress made under Mauricio Pochettino that not only have the goals continued to flow from Rickie Lambert, but that Jay Rodriguez has also started to deliver.

Rodriguez has now scored in each of his last three games. I was tempted by his price of 2.8415/8 to score at any time, but four goals in a row might be too much to ask. Instead I'm going with Lambert to score the first goal at 6.05/1, having failed to net in Southampton's last game against Wigan.

Next to Italy and an interesting fixture between AC Milan and Napoli at the San Siro. Third-placed Milan trail second-placed Napoli by four points, so a home victory would reign them right in.

Yet Milan will be without Mario Balotelli, who is suspended for three games after typical shenanigans that saw him mouthing off at an assistant referee.

Had Balotelli been at Milan all season, he may well now be troubling Edison Cavani at the top of the Serie A scoring charts. The Uruguayan has hit 22 goals during this campaign and with four goals in his last three games, I'm backing him at likely odds of around 2.56/4 to add to his tally.

Next we go to Spain for the game between Espanyol and Valencia. It is Roberto Soldado of Valencia who leads the betting, but the man in form at the moment is clearly his team-mate Jonas Oliveira, who has scored six goals in his last six league games.

Jonas was also on target against PSG in the Champions League during this period. In total he has scored 16 goals this season. Let's have a punt on the Brazilian scoring the last goal at a price of 7.06/1.

Last but not least we take a look at the Scottish Cup semi-final between Dundee United and Celtic.

Had he been fit, I would have been tipping Dundee United's Johnny Russell, who was in excellent form before succumbing to injury. Kris Commons is another who might miss out with a knock, having been scoring goals for fun over the past couple of weeks.

With those options out, I'm going for a player who's struggled in 2013. It seems to me that Celtic's Gary Hooper has been unsettled by the speculation in January regarding his potential transfer. I'm backing him to rise to the big occasion today, at likely odds of around 2.26/5 to find the net.

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