The Goalscorer Gamble: Back Berahino to bash Brum

Dan Fitch
24 January 2015

Can Saido Berahino add to his season's tally when West Brom face Birmingham?

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Dan Fitch returns with five more goalscorer tips and fancies Saido Berahino to grab more FA Cup goals...

"De Jong scored twice in the Dutch Cup last weekend."

Back De Jong to score the first goal at 6.05/1.

The gap between success and utter failure for the Goalscorer Gamble is paper thin. Danny Ings scored Burnley's second goal last weekend but had it come just a few minutes earlier then I would now be boasting of the profit I made.

Instead I stand before you waving a white flag, meekly offering an apologetic grin and promising that I will do better than last weekend's abject showing. The law of averages alone, at least suggests that I will struggle to not fare better.

We start in the FA Cup with a local derby between Birmingham City and West Brom. The Baggies qualified for the Fourth Round with a 7-0 win over non-league Gateshead.

Saido Berahino scored four goals that afternoon, forming part of his six goals in the last four games. In total he has 14 goals in 25 games and faces a Birmingham defence that have conceded in each of their last five games, including two in the last round against non-league Blyth Spartans. Let's back Berahino at a likely price of 2.56/4 to find the net.

We stay in the FA Cup for Sunderland's match with Fulham. The home side's chief goal threat these days is new signing Jermain Defoe.

Defoe had scored on his debut for West Ham, Bournemouth, Spurs, Portsmouth and Toronto, before failing to do so for Sunderland last weekend. We can expect then that a striker as goal-hungry as Defoe will be busting a gut to at least manage a goal on his home debut against a Fulham side that have let in six goals in their last three games. Defoe should be priced at around 5.59/2 to score the opening goal.

To Spain next, where we're interested in a mismatch between struggling Cordoba and league leaders Real Madrid. Gareth Bale has received criticism of late, despite the fact that he has done extremely well in Spain by any normal standards.

He scored 22 in 44 games last season and is maintaining this ratio with 13 in 27 this time out. Nine of these goals have come in 15 La Liga outings, including his last two appearances. He faces a Cordoba team that conceded five in a recent match with Barcelona, so back Bale at a likely price of 2.111/10 to add to his tally.

PSV are another example of league leaders taking on an unfashionable side this weekend, though their opponents Cambuur are faring better than expected this season. Nonetheless PSV are expected to sweep them aside, having won their last five league games.

Luuk de Jong is PSV's main man in attack and his ten league goals this season puts him in second place amongst Holland's top scorers. De Jong scored twice in the Dutch Cup last weekend and should be available at around 6.05/1 to score the first goal.

Finally we head to Italy for the Monday night game between Napoli and Genoa. The two sides are in contrasting form. Napoli have only lost two of their last 17 games, while Genoa are without a win in five.

Key to Napoli's recent form has been the goals of Gonzalo Higuain, who has five in his last five games. Let's back him to continue his scoring run at a probable price of 2.111/10.

Best Bets
Recommended Bet: Back Berahino to score at 2.56/4
Back Defoe to score first at 5.59/2
Back Bale to score at 2.111/10
Back De Jong to score first at 6.05/1
Back Higuain to score at 2.111/10

Bet £10 On ACCAS or Bet Builders and Get a £2 Free Bet

Bet £10 on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders, at minimum combined odds of 2.0 (evens) and once the qualifying bet(s) have settled, you'll get a £2 free bet. Free bet valid 48 hours on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders. T&Cs apply.