The Big Wednesday Multiple: Milan to do it the Italian way

Massimiliano Allegri will look to stifle the Dutch
Massimiliano Allegri will look to stifle the Dutch

It's that time of the week where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

"Back Nottingham Forest @ 1.7 (7/10);

Back Newcastle @ 1.5 (1/2);

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Aston Villa v Rotherham @ 1.47 (40/85);

Back Under 2.5 Goals in AC Milan v PSV @ 2.15 (23/20);

The Multiple pays approximately 8.06 (7/1)"


Bet 1: Nottingham Forest (HOME) @ 1.7 (7/10)

We begin in the Midlands as Nottingham Forest look to continue their impressive start to the season by dispensing the out of form Millwall out of the Capital One Cup.

Billy Davies' men have made a flying start to their year as not only are they through to this round of the cup, they're currently top of the Championship with 10 points from a possible 12. Forest must be considered real promotion candidates even at this early stage as Davies looks to achieve what he couldn't manage to do in his first spell at the club.

Despite the fact that they will likely make a few changes ahead of their big match against Wigan on Saturday, Forest have a pretty deep squad to choose from and the winning culture that is developing throughout the team will have no doubt had an effect on the fringe players as well.

Millwall are going to be up against it this season as they don't score enough goals. The Lions have netted just twice in the league this term and while they did beat AFC Wimbledon in the previous round - they had home advantage and are in a higher division.

Even worse for Millwall is that strikers Steve Morison and Jermaine Easter are both likely to miss out through injury and it's hard to see them even scoring a goal this evening let alone getting a result.


Bet 2: Newcastle (AWAY) @ 1.5 (1/2) - Live on Sky Sports 4 at 19:45 BST

Newcastle have made a somewhat miserable start to their campaign but I don't expect any slip-ups from Alan Pardew's men at League Two's Morecambe in the Capital One Cup this evening.

Even if we excuse the 4-0 defeat at the Etihad in their opening game, the 0-0 draw with West Ham on Saturday was a miserable performance. The hosts lacked cutting edge and with Yohan Cabaye on strike, the onus is now going to be on Hatem Ben Arfa to step up and show what he's capable of.

Loic Remy is still injured for The Magpies so one or both of Papiss Cisse and Shola Ameobi will likely lead the line as it's difficult to see Pardew playing too much of a second string XI given the pressure he's currently under.

Morecambe have also made a poor start to their season as after four fixtures they are down in 19th place in League Two with just four points. The Shrimps did win at the weekend and they did knock out Wolves in the previous round, but it's really difficult to see them overcoming Premier League opposition - even on home soil.

Class should tell here and while Jim Bentley's outfit should put up some resistance, an away win in 90 minutes looks by far the most likely outcome.


Bet 3: Aston Villa v Rotherham (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.47 (40/85)

We stay in the Capital One Cup for our goal-fest of the week as Premier League Aston Villa host League One's Rotherham United.

The Villans have picked up three points from a possible nine in the league but considering they've had to face Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool, that isn't too bad a return. While they were poor against The Reds on Saturday, Paul Lambert's side were unlucky not to get at least a point at Stamford Bridge last Wednesday.

As Villa don't have a game scheduled this weekend it would seem likely that Lambert will field a strong XI as they look to go one better in this competition this year and make the final. That means the front three of Christian Benteke, Gabby Agbonlahor and  Andreas Weimann should all start and that usually means goals.

Rotherham have made a decent start in League One following their promotion last season and they are yet to be defeated this term. They also knocked out higher level opposition in the last round of the cup and a feature of their play is that they score plenty of goals.

The Millers have netted nine times in five matches so far this term - keeping just one clean sheet themselves. They won't be daunted by the trip to Villa Park and it's quite conceivable that they can score at least once against a Villa defence who rarely keep a clean sheet.


Bet 4: AC Milan v PSV (Under 2.5 goals) @ 2.15 (23/20) - Live on Sky Sports Interactive at 19:45 BST

Our final leg comes from Italy as AC Milan take on PSV with the tie poised delicately at 1-1. The winners will progress through to the knockout phase of the Champions League so there is a lot at stake for these two clubs.

While it's still very early on in their campaign, Massimiliano Allegri will likely be a touch disappointed with how things have gone so far. After taking a 1-0 lead in Holland last week, his side conceded a second half goal and then on Saturday they lost their opening Serie A match to the newly promoted Hellas Verona.

The Italians are still the favourites to progress though - quite rightly given the away goal they scored - so I'm expecting a typical cautious approach tonight. Milan's last five matches in the Champions League at the San Siro have all gone under 2.5 goals and that includes a pair of 0-0's. That exact scoreline would be good enough here and it's likely Allegri's chief objective will be to not concede rather than score.

PSV generally produce high scoring matches but then they do ply their trade in a very high scoring league. They could only manage a single strike at the Philips Stadion last week and with inexperienced manager Phillip Cocu at the helm, it's hard to see them outfoxing the wily Italians in their own backyard.


Recommended Multiple

Back Nottingham Forest @ 1.7 (7/10); Back Newcastle @ 1.5 (1/2); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Aston Villa v Rotherham @ 1.47 (40/85); Back Under 2.5 Goals in AC Milan v PSV @ 2.15 (23/20); The Multiple pays approximately 8.06 (7/1)


Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.


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