We're spending Friday night in Germany, where Kev doesn't want us to be entertained.
"There have only been two goals scored across Stuttgart's three home games, while Koln have struggled to score all season."
Stuttgart v FC Koln
Friday October 13, 19:30
Live on BT Sport ESPN
We stopped the rot in Brazil last night, but didn't quite get the winner we wanted. Santos drew 1-1 at Ponte Preta, and couldn't quite take advantage of the hosts going down to ten men in the closing stages.
We're off to southern Germany now, as struggling FC Koln make the trip to face newly-promoted Stuttgart.
Koln's fall from grace has been swift and shocking. A good squad of players that finished fifth in the Bundesliga last season has collectively lost confidence, and the loss of star striker Anthony Modeste to China has inflated the bank balance but done huge damage to the team. Although veteran Claudio Pizarro has experience and penalty-box nous to offer, it'll take a while for him to get match sharpness, and his fellow striker Jhon Cordoba will miss the next few weeks because of injury.
With very little going on in attack, Koln are trying to tighten up at the back. They ground out a goalless draw in the last away game at Hannover, and in their last four matches in all competitions, they have only conceded four goals. At the other end, however, they have only scored three goals in their last nine outings.
Stuttgart are yet to concede a goal at home this season, having secured 1-0 wins over Mainz and Wolfsburg, and played out a goalless draw with Augsburg. By and large they have been defensively sound, but they are struggling at the other end. Last season's top scorer Simon Terodde has only netted once this season in the league, and although the younger and quicker Chadrac Akolo has a couple of goals, he isn't proven at this level either.
I think both of these sides will see this as a winnable game, but that may actually make them quite cautious, as they don't want to blow a good opportunity. All of Stuttgart's home matches have seen an Under 2.5 Goals bet land, and that's true of five of their seven league games. Koln have seen three of their last four matches feature fewer than three goals, so that's the way I'm heading tonight.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at [1.87]
Points Staked: 150
Points Returned: 148.07
P/L: -1.93 points