Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW37

Ciro Immobile Lazio hat-trick
Lazio's Ciro Immobile can move closer to finishing the season as Serie A's top scorer

Using expected goals (xG) data from Infogol as his guide, Tom Victor looks for the likely Serie A winners and scorelines in the penultimate week of the season...

"With the two sides above them facing off on the final day, a big win over Brescia can keep Simone Inzaghi's side primed to capitalise on any dropped points and return to the second spot they occupied for so long."

Atalanta to keep the pressure on at the top

Parma v Atalanta
Tuesday, 18:30
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Atalanta can no longer win Serie A this season, thanks to Juventus' win on Sunday, but Gian Piero Gasperini's side can still keep up the pressure on second-placed Inter. They're favourites to do so at Parma, despite their opponents' back-to-back wins, though it's unlikely to be as one-sided as the 5-0 triumph in Bergamo back in January. The visitors are 71% to win, with both sides given a decent chance of finding the net.

Back the 1-2 @ [9.80]

Inter to seal big win in race for second

Inter Milan v Napoli
Tuesday, 20:45
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With a trip to Atalanta awaiting them on the final day, Inter will likely need all three points against a tough-to-beat Napoli in order to retain the upper hand in the race for a runner-up spot behind Juve. Rino Gattuso's visitors recently saw a healthy unbeaten run ended by Parma, suggesting an on-song Inter should have enough to claim victory, with an average of 2.01 xGF across their last six - home and away - pointing to where their strengths lie.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.80]

Lazio to remain in contention for a top-two spot

Lazio v Brescia
Wednesday, 18:30
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Back to back wins over Cagliari and Verona, the latter via a rather flattering 5-1 scoreline, have thrown Lazio back in the mix for second. With the two sides above them facing off on the final day, a big win over Brescia can keep Simone Inzaghi's side primed to capitalise on any dropped points and return to the second spot they occupied for so long. Infogol's model gives them a 69% chance of victory over relegated opponents with just one away point in 2020.

Back the 3-1 @ [11.00]

Milan to stay unbeaten after Sampdoria trip

Sampdoria v AC Milan
Wednesday, 18:30
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After clinging on to a point at home to Atalanta, a game in which the visitors missed a penalty, Milan will be confident of returning to winning ways away to a Sampdoria side whose last home defeat came against stadium-sharers Genoa. The home side have lost more than they've won at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris, and a Milan side averaging 1.59 xGF on the road should have too much for them, according to Infogol.

Back the 1-2 @ [9.20]

Sassuolo to prolong Genoa uncertainty

Sassuolo v Genoa
Wednesday, 18:30
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With a four-point advantage over 18th-place Lecce, Genoa should be fine. However, they may have to wait to make sure thanks to a tough trip to free-scoring Sassuolo. Roberto de Zerbi's men have scored in all but one of their home games this season, averaging 1.55 xGF per game at Mapei Stadium and more than two actual goals, meaning they have a slight edge based on Infogol's model as they aim to cling on to eighth spot.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.50]

goran-pandev-genoa.jpg

Udinese to end Lecce's survival dream

Udinese v Lecce
Wednesday, 18:30
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Lecce's task is clear. Only two wins will suffice, thanks to their inferior head-to-head record against Genoa, and a trip to take on an Udinese side which beat Juventus in the last game at Friuli isn't the first thing they'd have asked for and they'll need to upset the odds to emerge with three points. The hosts have been stingy at home, conceding just 1.15 xGA per game, but against a visiting side with no choice but to go for a win we may see more goalmouth action.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.50]

SPAL to feel Verona's wrath as hosts rebound from Lazio setback

Verona v SPAL
Wednesday, 18:30
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Verona were better than their 5-1 home defeat against Lazio implies, and they'll want to bounce back and show their quality when relegated SPAL come to town. The visitors have recorded more than 1 xGF in just one of their last six games, averaging just 1.08 xGF and 1.92 xGA on the road all season long, and that doesn't make good reading for them,

Back the 2-1 @ [8.80]

Juve to begin victory lap with win at Cagliari

Cagliari v Juventus
Wednesday, 20:45
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After making hard work of their run-in, Juventus clinched the title after squeaking a 2-0 victory over a Sampdoria side which finished with 10 men. The next step is picking up the points needed to surpass the 84-point total of Antonio Conte's unbeaten 2011/12 champions, and they can do that with a victory in Sardinia. Infogol gives the Bianconeri a 56% chance of victory against a team with more defeats than wins on home soil.

Back the 1-2 @ [9.40]

Fiorentina to keep alive hopes of a top-half finish

Fiorentina v Bologna
Wednesday, 20:45
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Defeat at Roma last time out damaged Fiorentina's hopes of a top-10 finish, but the Viola can climb above Wednesday's opponents Bologna on head-to-head with a victory at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. Giuseppe Iachini's men are unbeaten in three at home, allowing just 1.11 xGA per game at home this season, and Infogol expects them to have too much for a Bologna side with a healthy - but perhaps not quite healthy enough - away record.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.80]

Roma to clinch fifth with win at Torino

Torino v Roma
Wednesday, 20:45
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Five wins from six have put Roma back in pole position for fifth spot, and Infogol gives them a 59% chance of victory away to a Torino side now mathematically assured of their Serie A status for another year. An average of 2.30 xGF across the last six games points to where the game will be won - Paulo Fonseca's side have the goods to overpower opponents who allow 1.67 xGA on average on home turf and almost as many actual goals.

Back the 1-3 @ [13.50]

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Just in time for the return of Serie A action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, More prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net

Tom Victor,

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