Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW36

Ilija Nestorovski celebrates his Udinese goal
After beating Juventus in midweek, Udinese are a step closer to safety

Using expected goals (xG) data from Infogol as his guide, Tom Victor looks for the likely Serie A winners and scorelines as the finale draws closer

"AC Milan have been flying since the restart, unbeaten in nine and beating both Juventus and Lazio, but Atalanta are the only team to pick up more points over the same period."

Atalanta to end Milan's unbeaten streak

AC Milan v Atalanta
Friday, 20:45
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AC Milan have been flying since the restart, unbeaten in nine and beating both Juventus and Lazio, but Atalanta are the only team to pick up more points over the same period. A run of 2.22 xGF per game in the last six will see Stefano Pioli stick around and Ralf Rangnick wait for a San Siro chance, but an Atalanta side with 2.32 xGF per game on the road can bring the Rossoneri back down to earth.

Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1

Parma to get points on the board against Brescia

Brescia v Parma
Saturday, 16:15
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Brescia will be playing in Serie B next season, so the final few gameweeks of the campaign will be about providing hope they can bounce straight back. However, they're up against a Parma side which arrested a recent slide by taking three points off Napoli with the help of two penalties. With both teams conceding heavily this season, we shouldn't expect either goalkeeper to end the game with a clean sheet.

Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

Inter to make Genoa wait longer for survival

Genoa v Inter Milan
Saturday, 18:30
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Lecce's midweek win means Genoa aren't safe just yet, but they're getting closer. However, the visit of an Inter side in fine recent form - despite a surprise blank against Fiorentina - means Davide Nicola's team may need to wait to make safety official. The visitors are 52% to win, according to Infogol's model, after racking up 1.7 xGF per away game this season and keeping up that record across their last three road games.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

Napoli to return to winning ways against Sassuolo

Napoli v Sassuolo
Saturday, 20:45
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Both Napoli and Sassuolo saw their unbeaten runs ended in midweek, but home advantage makes Rino Gattuso's side the more likely to avoid two defeats in a row. The hosts have been averaging 1.93 xGF per game at the San Paolo this team, while their opponents - who Infogol gives just a 19% chance of victory - have a negative away goal difference in both xG and actual goals.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Bologna to stop Lecce in their tracks

Bologna v Lecce
Sunday, 16:15
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Lecce manager Fabio Liverani has acknowledged the challenges facing their squad, even as they beat lowly Brescia in midweek, and this could be where their battle to avoid the drop hits a bump in the road. After two tough away defeats, Siniša Mihajlović's hosts will be pleased to return home to take on a team whose defensive record on the road explains their downfall. Bologna are 59% to win, based on Infogol's model, with a 55% chance of more than 3.5 goals.

Back the 3-1 @ 19.0018/1

bologna-atalanta-medel.jpg

Cagliari to keep Udinese looking over their shoulders

Cagliari v Udinese
Sunday, 18:30
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A midweek victory over Juventus leaves Udinese within touching distance of safety, and they'll likely be able to get away with dropping points at the Sardegna Arena. If they want to clinch their safety immediately, they'll need to find goals against a Cagliari side who have tightened up since an eye-opening defeat to Atalanta at the start of the month, giving away a stingy 1.09 xGA across their last four games. This one is unlikely to be goal-heavy, but Infogol's model gives the hosts a narrow edge.

Back the 2-0 @ 23.0022/1

Roma to march on with win over Fiorentina

Roma v Fiorentina
Sunday, 18:30
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Fiorentina rode their luck a little to escape the San Siro with a goalless draw, and will need similar fortune to keep their unbeaten run going against Roma. While the Giallorossi's 6-1 win at SPAL stands out, more frightening is their consistency across five games which have brought 13 points and 11 xGF. The hosts are favourites, thanks in no small part to them averaging more than two xGF per game at the Olimpico all season long, but the Viola can get themselves on the scoresheet against Chris Smalling and co.

Back the 2-1 @ 8.4015/2

SPAL to respond to home humbling at Torino pay them a visit

SPAL v Torino
Sunday, 18:30
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After starting the month with an impressive point against Milan, SPAL have had a miserable July, but we shouldn't be too quick to write off Luigi di Biagio's side against Torino. A 6-1 home defeat is the kind of result that demands a response, regardless of where you sit in the table, and Infogol gives the already relegated hosts a fair crack at providing one last hurrah.

Back the 2-1 @ 19.50

Lazio to go two for two with Verona win

Verona v Lazio
Sunday, 18:30
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Lazio finally found the win that had been eluding them for so long, coming from behind to beat Cagliari in the week, and can celebrate clinching Champions League football by beating a Verona side now unable to catch the top seven. Simone Inzaghi's side could go back up to second with a win if results elsewhere go their way, but three points in a game they're 42% to win should be satisfying enough on its own.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Juve to finally seal title after a rocky patch

Juventus v Sampdoria
Sunday, 20:45
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Juve have made hard work of their first league title under Maurizio Sarri, taking just five points from their last five games, but a win at 14th-place Sampdoria will be enough to seal the deal. The Old Lady have averaged 2.28 xGF per game at the Juventus Stadium, staying above that mark in recent games against challengers Lazio and Atalanta, and should be solid enough defensively to keep Claudio Raneri's visitors as quiet as they need to be.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

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Just in time for the return of Serie A action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, More prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net

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