Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW35

Sarri Ronaldo Juventus
Cristiano Ronaldo's goals have helped Maurizio Sarri's Juve close in on the title

Using expected goals (xG) data from Infogol as his guide, Tom Victor looks for the likely Serie A winners and scorelines...

"Lazio's loss at Juve was their fourth from five games, but the long-time title challengers can get back to winning ways as they welcome a Cagliari side yet to win in July."

Atalanta to get back to winning ways against Bologna

Atalanta v Bologna
Tuesday, 18:30
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Atalanta hit a bump in the road against Verona last time out, setting them back in the chase for second, but can get back to winning ways back in Bergamo. Visitors Bologna were extremely porous last time out away to Milan, allowing more than double their season-long average of 1.45 xGA away from the Renato Dall'Ara, while the home side's 2.32 xGF per game at home still feels preposterous to even write down. Atalanta are 73% to win, based on Infogol's model, as they chase down the 100-goal mark.

Back the 3-1 @ [11.50]

Milan to break Sassuolo's resolve after a fight

Sassuolo v AC Milan
Tuesday, 20:45
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Sassuolo kept up their unbeaten streak over the weekend, but an in-form Milan will be a tougher challenge than a Cagliari side playing more than half-an-hour with 10 men. It won't be straightforward for Milan against opponents averaging 1.57 xGF per game at home, and scoring substantially more actual goals, but the demolition of Bologna points to a team creating more than enough chances to worry even the most confident opponents.

Back the 1-2 @ [10.00]

Napoli to send Parma spiralling further

Parma v Napoli
Wednesday, 18:30
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If you're only 19% to win at home, as is the case for Parma according to Infogol, something isn't right. In the case of Roberto D'Aversa's side, you just need to look at the collapse from 2-0 up against Sampdoria at the weekend, or the broader defensive weakness in recent weeks. They welcome a Napoli team unbeaten in five, and conceding just 1.16 xGA per game away from home, and the visitors should turn that five into six.

Back the 1-2 @ [8.40]

Inter to pass Viola test thanks to strength at home

Inter v Fiorentina
Wednesday, 20:45
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A draw with Roma last time out was enough to keep Inter second, but they'll want to strengthen their grip on the position on a home ground where they've averaged more than 2 xGF all season long. Visitors Fiorentina have made other high-flyers work for results, taking the lead at Lazio a few weeks back, and ought to run Antonio Conte's side close. However, with Infogol giving the Nerazzurri a 56% chance of victory, a home win still looks most likely.

Back the 2-1 @ [8.40]

Lecce to just about keep kicking with win over Brescia

Lecce v Brescia
Wednesday, 20:45
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A late defeat at Genoa has put a real dent in Lecce's survival chances, but Fabio Liverani's side can keep their slim hopes alive with a win over Brescia which would effectively relegate their visitors. Two leaky defences - Brescia averaging 1.96 xGA on the road and Lecce up to 2.33 xGA at home - means we can expect goals, but Liverani's men will be confident of victory if they can repeat the performance which saw them beat Lazio at the start of the month.

Back the 3-1 @ [13.00]


Samp to push for unlikely top-half finish

Sampdoria v Genoa
Wednesday, 20:45
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Sampdoria's recent form has ended any lingering fears of relegation, with a superior head-to-head record over Lecce meaning they're mathematically safe with four games to go, and now they can look at crashing the top half - something which looked a long way off when Serie A resumed. Infogol gives Claudio Ranieri's men a 45% chance to make it six wins from seven against a Genoa side which now has a four-point buffer over the bottom three.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.00]

Roma to pile more misery on relegated SPAL

SPAL v Roma
Wednesday, 20:45
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An early advantage at Brescia gave SPAL some hope of prolonging their Serie A stay, only for Jaromir Zrmhal's second-half brace to condemn them to relegation with four games left. Things are unlikely to improve against Roma, who can confirm Europa League qualification with a win, and Paulo Fonseca's side are 63% to win what looks set to be a high-scoring game (54% O3.5, 68% BTTS).

Back the 1-3 @ [11.00]

Torino to pip Verona in battle of hot-and-cold sides

Torino v Verona
Wednesday, 20:45
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You have to go back to 12 January for the last time either Torino or Verona recorded successive wins (both made it two in a row that day), and that's a big part of why neither side will be in Europe next season. Moreno Longo's hosts still need one more win to avoid any relegation panic, and they're 42% with Infogol to get it against a Verona team winless in five. Verona have averaged 1.81 xGA and just 0.78 xGF in their last three away games, and the hosts should be able to take advantage.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.60]

Away win to put Juventus within touching distance of title

Udinese v Juventus
Thursday, 18:30
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Maurizio Sarri's Juve got back to winning ways thanks to a familiar source, Cristiano Ronaldo finding the net twice in a victory over Lazio, and if other results go their way they'll know they can clinch the title by beating Udinese on Thursday night. Infogol's model gives them a 52% chance of winning, ignoring what happens in Milan and Bergamo, with Juve having averaged more than 1.5 xGF across their last three away games and the same all season long.

Back the 1-2 @ [8.40]

Lazio to finally make certain of top-four finish after slump

Lazio v Cagliari
Thursday, 20:45
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Lazio's loss at Juve was their fourth from five games, but the long-time title challengers can get back to winning ways as they welcome a Cagliari side yet to win in July. Walter Zenga's visitors have averaged less than one xGF per game across those six winless matches, but even a goal at the Olimpico is unlikely to be enough against opponents averaging 2.05 xGF per home game and with a 56% chance of notching another victory on Thursday, according to Infogol's model.

Back the 2-1 @ [8.40]


Just in time for the return of Serie A action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, More prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at

Tom Victor,

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