Serie A Correct Score Predictor With Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW31

Marco Mancosu of Lecce
Marco Mancosu was Lecce's hero against Lazio
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Using expected goals (xG) data from Infogol as his guide, Tom Victor looks for the likely winners and scorelines as Serie A's relegation battle heats up.

"Atalanta have been on a tear since the restart, picking up where they left off in March, and even a trip to league leaders Juve might not be enough to stop them."

Lazio to stop the rot against Sassuolo

Lazio v Sassuolo
Saturday, 16:15
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Back-to-back defeats have effectively ended Lazio's title charge, and now attention turns to clinging on to second place. They'll have a great chance to do just that at home to a Sassuolo side which has recently tightened up a previously leaky defence. Roberto De Zerbi's men have averaged 1.02 xGA across their last two away games, but their season-long average of 1.88 xGA - coupled with the seven goals conceded against Atalanta and Inter on their return to action in June, supports a Lazio win with infogol giving a 66% chance of both sides scoring.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.20]

Roma to keep up European charge with win at Brescia

Brescia v Roma
Saturday, 18:30
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Roma made hard work of Parma last time out, dominating on xG but handing their opponents an early lead from the spot. However, now that they've ended a concerning losing streak, they have a chance to pull away from the chasing pack and lock up a Europa League spot. Roma are 67% to win at Brescia, who failed to hold on to an early lead of their own at Torino and ended the evening seven points from safety.

Back the 1-3 @ [12.50]

Relentless Atalanta to keep going against champions-elect Juve

Juventus v Atalanta
Saturday, 20:45
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Atalanta have been on a tear since the restart, picking up where they left off in March, and even a trip to league leaders Juve might not be enough to stop them. Maurizio Sarri's hosts are still seven points clear despite throwing away a 2-0 lead to lose to Milan on Tuesday, but their opponents have been averaging a frightening 2.46 xGF per game on their travels and could leave Juve looking over their shoulders in the run-in.

Back the 1-2 @ [13.00]

Genoa to pick up crucial three points against SPAL

Genoa v SPAL
Sunday, 16:15
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SPAL's midweek capitulation against Udinese has left them deep in the mire, and fellow relegation contenders Genoa have the chance to all but send them down. Davide Nicola's hosts are just a point from safety, and victory in arguably their easiest remaining game will require them to improve on a season-long return of 1.36 xGF per game at Stadio Luigi Ferraris after losing their last four at home.

Back the 2-1 @ [8.60]

Lecce to struggle in Cagliari as relegation battle intensifies

Cagliari v Lecce
Sunday, 18:30
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Few saw Lecce's victory over Lazio coming, but Fabio Liverani's team created plenty of chances and were good value for the victory that lifted them out of the bottom three. Riding that momentum to victory in Cagliari will be tough, though, with Liverani's men averaging 2.55 xGA on the road and shipping four actual goals in each of their last three away games. Cagliari might have fallen to in-form Atalanta in their last home game but this is a different proposition, and Infogol gives them a 57% chance of prevailing in a game likely to deliver goals.

Back the 3-1 @ [13.00]

Nainggolan-Cagliari-2020.jpg

Fiorentina to nudge past Verona after arresting recent slide

Fiorentina v Verona
Sunday, 18:30
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Fiorentina have steadied the ship with four points from their last two games, and can benefit from extra rest against a Verona team which left it late to claim a point against Inter on Thursday night. The visitors have averaged a goal a game on the road (from 1.38 xGF), while the hosts' -6 goal difference at Stadio Artemio Franchi is out of sync with xG and can be used to explain a struggle for wins which they can set right on Sunday.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.20]

Bologna's away form to see them home at Parma

Parma v Bologna
Sunday, 18:30
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Siniša Mihajlović's Bologna have more points away than at home this season, and a trip to out-of-form Parma can help them pick up a third straight win on the road after seeing off Inter and Sampdoria. The visitors have a 50% chance of victory based on Infogol's model, and Parma's recent home defeats against Inter and Fiorentina, with more than 2.3 xGA allowed in each, suggest it won't be a low-scoring affair.

Back the 1-2 @ [10.00]

In-form Lasagna can help Udinese extend unbeaten run

Udinese v Sampdoria
Sunday, 18:30
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Top-scorer Kevin Lasagna has helped Udinese put together an impressive recent run, with the striker netting five in the last four games including the clincher in a 3-0 win at SPAL. Infogol gives his team a 38% chance of victory at Friuli against a Sampdoria side which made Atalanta work for its victory in midweek, but expect both teams to get on the scoresheet in this clash between two teams who aren't quite mathematically safe yet.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.8]

Gattuso to stop resurgent former club Milan

Napoli v AC Milan
Sunday, 20:45
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AC Milan come into this game after wins against the top two, but their former midfielder (and former manager) Rino Gattuso has the tools to end their run of form and make it five wins from six for his Napoli side. The hosts have averaged 1.98 xGF and 1.13 xGA at home, suggesting far more dominance than their +2 goal difference at the San Paolo indicates, and have goals running through the team with six different scorers in their last four games - enough to convert their 46% chance of victory into a narrow win.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.2]

Inter to end recent struggles against inviting Torino defence

Inter v Torino
Monday, 20:45
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Inter will be frustrated after dominating their last two games against Bologna and Verona but emerging with just one point. However, they can set that right at home to a Torino side which shipped four goals in each of its last two away games and has averaged 1.78 xGA on the road. Infogol's model gives Antonio Conte's hosts a 73% chance of victory, as they look to net at home for the ninth straight game.

Back the 2-1 @ 13/2

***

Just in time for the return of Serie A action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, More prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net

Tom Victor,

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