Serie A Correct Score Predictor With Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW31

Lorenzo Insigne of Napoli
Napoli's Lorenzo Insigne is looking to add to his winner against Roma

Using expected goals (xG) data from Infogol as his guide, Tom Victor looks for the likely winners and scorelines from a Serie A's 31st gameweek...

"Sampdoria have shown good character to win back-to-back games for the first time this season and move clear from danger, but perhaps they knew they needed to get points on the board with a trip to Bergamo looming large."

Lecce trip gives Lazio ideal chance to rebound from Milan reverse

Lecce v Lazio
Tuesday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Lazio's 3-0 loss at home to AC Milan all but ended their title challenge, but Simone Inzaghi's team can still get the results they need to lock up second place. They travel to Lecce, where Infogol's model gives them a 65% chance of rebounding against a team whose 4-2 reverse at Sassuolo left them in the bottom three. The hosts' leaky defence doesn't bode well (2.5 xGA per game), with BTTS at 68% and a 56% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Back the 1-3 @ [11.5]

Milan to briefly halt Juventus procession

AC Milan v Juventus
Tuesday, 20:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video

AC Milan have already done Juventus a huge favour with their win at the Olimpico, and Stefano Pioli's side have looked particularly sharp since the restart, dominating on the xG front in all four of their games. Infogol gives both sides a 37% chance of winning, and with Juve less desperate for all three points against a team with as many draws as wins at home, we could well wind up with a stalemate at the San Siro.

Back the 1-1 @ [7.20]

Fiorentina to close in on top half by beating Cagliari

Fiorentina v Cagliari
Wednesday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Victory at Parma was no less than Fiorentina deserved at the weekend, and Giuseppe Iachini's side now no longer need to look over their shoulders. Another win at home to Cagliari could leave them looking up not down, and they're 55% to sneak an elusive home win after failing to get the rub of the green in their last two matches at Stadio Artemio Franchi. An xGD of -9.6 on the road really ought to have brought Cagliari more losses on their travels, and Infogol envisages a home win reducing the gap between the two sides to just two points.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.20]

Napoli to make it four wins from five against struggling Genoa

Genoa v Napoli
Wednesday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Genoa's goals against column in recent weeks betrays their defence, which has actually been limiting opponents to tough chances but coming up against good finishing and poor luck. From 4.7 xGA since the restart, Davide Nicola's team have conceded a huge 11 goals, ensuring they remain in the relegation mix. They won't be delighted, then, to be faced with a Napoli side with three deserved wins from their last four outings. The visitors are 46% to pick up all three points once more, and we can expect goals from this one (60% BTTS, 59% O2.5).

Back the 1-2 @ [9.20]

Sampdoria resurgence to come to an end at Atalanta

Atalanta v Sampdoria
Wednesday, 20:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Sampdoria have shown good character to win back-to-back games for the first time this season and move clear from danger, but perhaps they knew they needed to get points on the board with a trip to Bergamo looming large. Atalanta have been perfect since the restart and have scored 17 goals more than any other Serie A team this term, so their 74% chance of victory with Infogol seems appropriate. Samp may get on the scoresheet (BTTS is at 58%) but back-to-back clean sheets seems extremely unlikely.

Back the 3-1 @ [11.50]

Claudio Ranieri Sampdoria 1280.jpg

Bologna to build on shock win at Inter

Bologna v Sassuolo
Wednesday, 20:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Few expected Bologna to get anything from Inter, let alone a 2-1 win, but Siniša Mihajlović's team now have a chance to make it 10 points from a possible 12 when they welcome Sassuolo to the Renato Dall'Arra. The visitors are coming off back-to-back wins themselves, but an xGA average of 2.0 per game on the road could be their undoing in a game where Infogol has BTTS at a huge 68%.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.50]

Roma's losing streak to end as they host Parma

Roma v Parma
Wednesday, 20:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Both Roma and Parma enter this game on a run of three straight defeats, and relatively deserved ones at that, but the Giallorossi's firepower should be enough to see them through in the capital. Roma have averaged 2.3 xGF per game at home this season, with their visitors allowing 1.9 xGA per game on their travels, so Paulo Fonseca's side can justify Infogol's model giving them a 73% chance of the three points they need to cling on to fifth place.

Back the 3-1 @ [14.00]

Bellotti to help Torino scrape three points against Brescia

Torino v Brescia
Wednesday, 20:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Torino's recent results have been punishing, but Andrea Belotti keeps scoring, netting from the penalty spot against Juventus for his 13th of the season from 12.7 xG. If he can keep things up, Il Toro should just about have enough against a Brescia team which kept its survival hopes alive with a win against Verona on the weekend. It should be a great deal closer than the Biancazzurri's last away game, though, when they shipped six at Inter.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.20]

SPAL to build on Milan point with first home win since October

SPAL v Udinese
Thursday, 18:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Luigi di Biagio's SPAL are in danger of being cast adrift at the bottom, but a 2-2 draw with AC Milan in their last home game will give them hope of picking up the three points they desperately need. If they can't beat a Udinese side with nine away defeats, that might be it for them, but Infogol's model has them down as narrow favourites in a game which is unlikely to bring a repeat of the goalless draw in the reverse fixture.

Back the 2-1 @ [13.00]

Inter to cement top-four spot with win in Verona

Verona v Inter
Thursday, 20:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Inter still have Champions League football in their sights despite a hiccup against Bologna last time out, and should be confident of victory against a Verona side who most recently drew a blank against struggling Brescia. Verona have been better at home, winning two of their last three at the Bentegodi, but their five goals in those two wins came from just 2.2 xGF. They'll have to be more productive if they want to take anything from Antonio Conte's free-scoring side.

Back the 1-2 @ [8.8]

***

Just in time for the return of Serie A action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, More prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net

Serie A 19/20 Correct Score P+L

Staked: 30pts
Returned: 45.8pts
P+L: +15.8pts

Tom Victor,

Read past articles