Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions from Serie A as the top four race gets serious...
"Napoli's hot-and-cold away form harmed them again in midweek, but a trip to Luigi Ferraris can see them keep Juventus and Atalanta on their toes in the race for the top four."
Spezia to give selves some breathing room
Spezia are seven points clear of the drop, and opportunities to pick up the extra points they need don't come much more inviting than a home meeting with bottom side Crotone. Serse Cosmi's arrival has improved the visitors' performances, especially in an attacking sense, but Infogol backs the hosts against opponents still awaiting a first away win of the season.
Milan to dash Parma's survival hopes
Parma earned an eleventh draw of the season last weekend, and a failure to turn draws into wins could doom Roberto D'Aversa's men. Milan are this week's visitors, and the team with Serie A's best away record is expected to overcome the side with the lowest points total at home, sustaining or improving on a 1.91 xGF away average in the process.
Torino to remain in trouble with away loss
Udinese still have the best home xGA record in Serie A, averaging just 0.86 xGA per game, and visitors Torino will need to hope a fortunate derby draw last weekend is enough to buoy them at Friuli. Il Toro lost the reverse fixture under Marco Giampaolo, and his successor Davide Nicola is not expected to earn his side a different result as they continue to battle against the drop.
Inter to close in on making title win official
With an 11 point lead and nine games remaining, Inter look like champions in all but name, and Antonio Conte's men can move one step closer by beating a Cagliari side averaging 1.77 xGA on the road. The Nerazzurri were made to work for their victory at Sardegna Arena before the turn of the year, but Infogol expects this to be more straightforward.
Juve to keep control in top four race
Juventus' place in the Champions League spots remains under threat despite a midweek victory over Napoli, but Andrea Pirlo's side still have their fate in their own hands. They welcome a Genoa side with a league-worst 0.84 xGF per game away from home, and will fancy themselves to complete a double over their opponents after Cristiano Ronaldo eased victory late on in the reverse game.
Napoli to stay in touch in European battle
Napoli's hot-and-cold away form harmed them again in midweek, but a trip to Luigi Ferraris can see them keep Juventus and Atalanta on their toes in the race for the top four. Andrea Petagna's winner made the difference when the teams met back in December, and Infogol gives Rino Gattuso's visitors a 50% chance of victory to make it five wins from six.
Lazio to maintain Champions League hopes with narrow win
Lazio are among the outsiders in the top four chase, but a game in hand means they can't be ruled out entirely. A trip to Verona won't be easy, with the hosts averaging just 1.27 xGA per game on home soil, but Infogol's model makes Simone Inzaghi's side narrow favourites to earn a fourth straight league win and avenge their home defeat to Ivan Jurić's men.
Roma to complete double over Bologna
Roma's trip to Renato Dall'Ara was one of the highlights of their season, with five first-half goals setting them on the way to victory, but a run of one point from three games has come at the worst possible time for Paulo Fonseca's men. They'll be confident of turning things around against the Rossoblù, though, even if another five-goal haul seems unlikely.
Atalanta to hold onto fourth spot
Atalanta have responded well to their European exit, winning their last two in the league to make it seven wins from eight. An away return of 1.01 xGA per game is one of the league's best, and Gian Piero Gasperini's team have the attacking prowess needed to complete a league double over a Fiorentina side not yet mathematically safe from the drop.
Sassuolo to move closer to top half finish
Benevento's home form has been a problem this season, with just two wins and 1.81 xGA per game, so the visit of an erratic Sassuolo side could go either way. Infogol favours the visitors, though, despite Roberto De Zerbi's side winning just once on the road in 2021, meaning Pippo Inzaghi's hosts may have to wait a little longer to secure their Serie A spot for another year.