Serie A correct score predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW29

Simone Inzaghi Lazio
Lazio manager Simone Inzaghi will want his team to keep the pressure on Juventus
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Using expected goals (xG) data from Infogol as his guide, Tom Victor looks for the likely winners and scorelines from a Serie A round in which the top two face challenges away from home.

"Lazio left things late in their last home game, striking twice in the final 25 minutes to pip Fiorentina. However they dominated on the xG front, with 1.73 to their rivals' 0.37, and only a Franck Ribéry stunner put the visitors on the scoreboard."

Lazio to follow dramatic Fiorentina win with victory in Turin

Torino v Lazio
Tuesday, 18:00
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Lazio left things late in their last home game, striking twice in the final 25 minutes to pip Fiorentina. However they dominated on the xG front, with 1.73 to their rivals' 0.37, and only a Franck Ribéry stunner put the visitors on the scoreboard. Simone Inzaghi's side have an opportunity to pile pressure on league leaders Juventus, and Infogol gives them a 56% chance of doing so against a Torino side who have averaged just 1.05 xGF per game on home soil.

Back the 1-2 @ [9.4]

Juventus to make it three in a row in goal-filled Genoa game

Genoa v Juventus
Tuesday, 20:45
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Juventus have been pretty flawless in the league of late, cruising past Lecce and Bologna without conceding, but Genoa could well be the first team to find a way past Wojciech Szczesny since Serie A's resumption. Their home goal tally of 15 is a fair bit lower than their 19.8 xGF, while a single point from games at Brescia and at home to Parma doesn't tell the full story xG-wise. Juve should still edge this, despite the 63% chance of BTTS, unless a win for Lazio in the earlier game causes Maurizio Sarri's side to panic.

Back the 1-2 @ [9.8]

Bologna to deny Cagliari's three in a row

Bologna v Cagliari
Wednesday, 18:30
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Cagliari go into their trip to Bologna chasing a third successive victory, but the base-level steadiness of their away form is built on Walter Zenga's side outperforming their xG in both directions with 18 scored from 14.9 xGF and 19 conceded from 23.5 xGA. Bologna have a 58% chance of following their impressive win at Sampdoria with another victory here, while goals look likely (63% O2.5, 60% BTTS) according to the Infogol model.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.8]

Goals galore for Inter against bottom-three Brescia

Inter v Brescia
Wednesday, 18:30
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Brescia missed a huge chance to push towards safety at the weekend when they threw away a two-goal lead at home to Genoa, and that kind of defensive frailty won't play well away to an Inter side with eight goals scored from 7.7 xGF in their last three games. Infogol gives Antonio Conte's men a 77% chance of victory, while there's a 51% chance of more than 3.5 goals, suggesting this could be one of the higher-scoring midweek games.

Back the 3-1 @ [13.00]

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Visit of Sassuolo gives Fiorentina a chance to improve poor home form

Fiorentina v Sassuolo
Wednesday, 20:45
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Fiorentina are one of only a handful of teams with more points away than at home, but Infogol gives the Viola a 52% chance of picking up just their fourth win at the Stadio Artemio Franchi when they host a defensively generous Sassuolo side. Roberto di Zerbi's side have shipped seven goals in their last two away games, allowing 2.0 xGA per game on the road over the course of the season, though Infogol suggests a 61% chance of both teams finding the net.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.6]

Sampdoria to find rare away win against struggling Lecce

Lecce v Sampdoria
Wednesday, 20:45
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After three straight defeats, Sampdoria couldn't have asked for a better opponent than Lecce as they bid to snap their losing streak. Fabio Liverani's hosts have shipped 19 goals in their last four games, and aren't any better at home, allowing an average of 2.4 xGA per game at Via Del Mare. Samp have a 58% chance of winning, and two less than stellar defences provides a 51% chance of BTTS.

Back the 1-3 @ [19.5]

Away strength can help Milan keep momentum against SPAL

SPAL v AC Milan
Wednesday, 20:45
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Milan picked up a valuable three points in their European push at the weekend, keeping Roma quiet in a surprisingly comfortable 2-0 win, but a failure to follow that with a win at bottom-of-the-table SPAL will mean it's all for nothing. Milan are better away (22 points) than at home (20), but Luigi di Biagio's men are at their best at home, averaging 1.4 xGF and 1.6 xGA per game, so will make Milan fight for their points.

Back the 1-2 @ [9.00]

Verona to edge tight Parma battle

Verona v Parma
Wednesday, 20:45
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Both Verona and Parma have four points from three games since the restart, but the visitors have done so by riding their luck - not least in a trip to Genoa in which the teams were almost even on xG but Roberto d'Aversa's team ran out 4-1 winners. Verona lost their last home game when hosting Napoli, but had been unbeaten in five at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi before that and have a 50% chance of victory against a Parma side massively outperforming its xG on the road, scoring with 20 goals from chances equating to just 11.5 xGF.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.00]

Atalanta to keep the momentum going against in-form Napoli

Atalanta v Napoli
Thursday, 18:30
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The goals continue to flow in Atalanta games, with Udinese the latest to feel their wrath in a five-goal thriller last time out, but things won't be a walk in the park against a Napoli team unbeaten in nine. Infogol's model gives Gian Piero Gasperini's men a 58% chance of victory, but a goal-filled game is more of a certainty (62% BTTS, 66% O2.5) and understandably so, given Atalanta's 40 goals at home and Napoli's 26 on the road, including two from 1.37 xGF in their last road game at Verona.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.40]

Roma to bounce back from Milan defeat by edging out Udinese

Roma v Udinese
Thursday, 20:45
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Roma need a big response after a dismal defeat at the San Siro hit their Champions League ambitions, but a return to the Olimpico - where they racked up just shy of 6.0 xGF in their last two games - should be just the tonic. Udinese have been more of an attacking force in their two games back, at least compared to just before the break, but their 3.5 xGF and 1.7 xGA have translated into 0 points. Roma are unlikely to draw a blank twice in a row, with Infogol giving Paulo Fonseca's team a 70% chance of victory and putting BTTS at 59%.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.00]

***

Just in time for the return of Serie A action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, More prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net

Serie A 19/20 Correct Score P+L

Staked: 10pts
Returned: 17.4pts
P+L: +7.4pts

Tom Victor,

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