Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions from Serie A ahead of the Rome Derby...
"Lazio's recent mini-boost has come at the ideal time, with the first Rome derby of the season approaching, but opponents Roma have been similarly strong."
Roma to emerge victorious from hard-fought derby
Lazio's recent mini-boost has come at the ideal time, with the first Rome derby of the season approaching, but opponents Roma have been similarly strong. A draw with high-flying Inter represented the only time in four games that Paulo Fonseca's side have failed to win, and the team with Serie A's best xGF record - more than 2.2 per game - should have too much for their neighbours in a tight game.
Back the 1-2 @ 10.50
Bologna to end frustrating winless streak
A run of no wins in eight doesn't paint the full picture for Bologna, whose performances have arguably deserved at least one victory over that spell, but a return to Renato Dall'Ara can help them get over an increasingly concerning hurdle. Opponents Verona have seven points from their last three outings, but all three games were against teams in the bottom seven, and Infogol gives the hosts the edge here while anticipating fewer than 2.5 goals.
Back the 2-0 @ 13.50
Torino to win vital game in relegation fight
Torino will need to make a quick recovery from their midweek Coppa Italia exit as they welcome Spezia for a game which could play a big part in both sides' battles against the drop. An away win could take Vincenzo Italiano's side eight points clear of the bottom three, but the home victory supported by Infogol's model would reduce the gap between the sides to just two points.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Sampdoria and Udinese to cancel each other out
While Sampdoria currently sit four points above Udinese, the xG table tells a different story, with a win against Inter earlier this month just the latest example of Claudio Ranieri's men riding their luck. Opponents Udinese should be in the top half, based on their xG performances this term, and Infogol's model has nothing to choose between two teams who were level at Luigi Ferraris last season until Gastón Ramirez's second-half penalty decided things.
Back the 1-1 @ 6.205/1
Napoli to pick up an 11th win of the season
Fiorentina's dismal away record has kept them in trouble, with just five points from eight games compared to 13 from nine at Artemio Franchi, and a trip to Napoli is expected to bring more pain. Rino Gattuso's side were unfortunate to lose their last home league game, but a late cup win over Empoli can give them the boost they need to take all three points and keep their Champions League charge alive.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.207/1
Crotone to cling to faint survival hopes
Crotone handed Benevento one of just four league defeats last season as both teams came up from Serie B, and the hosts will be praying for another victory at Ezio Scida to stay in touch with relegation rivals. Despite finding themselves in mid-table, Benevento are expected to lose this one, with Infogol's model anticipating a home win in a low-scoring affair.
Back the 2-0 @ 14/1
Sassuolo to play themselves back into European contention
An inconsistent recent run has dented Sassuolo's top four hopes, but a home meeting with struggling Parma can set them back on track. Roberto D'Aversa's reappointment hasn't brought an immediate uptick for the visitors, who have averaged 2 xGA across their last five home and away games, and Infogol gives Roberto De Zerbi's hosts a 56% chance of success on Sunday afternoon.
Back the 2-1 @ 8.007/1
Atalanta to remain lethal in front of goal
After averaging nearly 3 xGF per game in their last three matches, scoring 12 in the process, Atalanta are looking back to their best. A fourth straight league win against Genoa could be enough to return Gian Piero Gasperini's men to the top four by the end of the weekend, and Infogol expects them to dominate against a team against whom they took four points last season.
Back the 3-0 @ 9.4017/2
Inter to stick a pin in Juve's forward momentum
Antonio Conte takes on his former charge Andrea Pirlo on Sunday night, and the experience of the former Italy coach could give the Nerazzurri the upper hand. Infogol gives Inter a narrow edge in a fixture which pits the league's best attack against its best defence, though its model offers a 59% chance of both sides finding the back of the net.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Milan to stay top with away victory
After surviving a midweek scare in the cup to beat Torino on penalties, Milan will hope a return to Serie A action is enough to reenergise them. Two second-half goals handed the Rossoneri victory in Sardinia last season, and Stefano Pioli will be confident his team has the firepower to damage a home defence averaging 2.2 xGA per game at Sardegna Arena this term.
Back the 1-2 @ 8.007/1
Lazio v Roma: Back the 1-2 @ 10.50
Bologna v Verona: Back the 2-0 @ 13.50
Torino v Spezia: Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Sampdoria v Udinese: Back the 1-1 @ 6.205/1
Napoli v Fiorentina: Back the 2-1 @ 8.207/1
Crotone v Benevento: Back the 2-0 @ 14/1
Sassuolo v Parma: Back the 2-1 @ 8.007/1
Atalanta v Genoa: Back the 3-0 @ 9.4017/2
Inter Milan v Genoa: Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Cagliari v AC Milan: Back the 1-2 @ 8.007/1