Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions in Serie A ahead of the Turin derby...
"Inter have a huge game in midweek, as they chase the win over Shakhtar Donetsk which can prolong their European involvement, but as long as that isn't playing on their mind over the weekend they should have too much for Bologna."
Lazio to claim important away win
Lazio haven't been themselves this season, winning just four of their first nine league games and losing focus against Udinese last weekend, but a trip to Spezia can help them kick-start an underwhelming campaign. The hosts have one of Serie A's worst home records, averaging less than one xGF per game, and Infogol anticipates their winless home run continuing on Saturday.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.008/1
Juventus to ease to derby success
Draws continue to plague Juventus, with Benevento the latest to get the measure of Andrea Pirlo's side, but a meeting with neighbours Torino can help the champions step up their title defence. The corresponding fixture last season brought a 4-1 home win, and the Bianconeri ought to be comfortable against Serie A's worst defence.
Back the 3-0 @ 11.0010/1
Inter to stay in touch at the top
Inter have a huge game in midweek, as they chase the win over Shakhtar Donetsk which can prolong their European involvement, but as long as that isn't playing on their mind over the weekend they should have too much for Bologna. A home defeat to the Rossoblù last term all but ended Antonio Conte's hopes of another Scudetto, and the Inter boss will be desperate to avoid a defeat in a game for which Infogol makes the hosts big favourites.
Back the 3-0 @ 14.0013/1
Verona to build on surprise win in Bergamo
Verona's victory away to Atalanta was a huge statement, and not just for the fact that it lifted Ivan Jurić's side above their opponents. The Gialloblu boast the division's best defensive record, even if they've ridden their luck a little in xG terms, and have a chance to keep the top six on their toes with another shutout against a Cagliari side whose last away clean sheet came nearly five months ago.
Back the 2-0 @ 11.5021/2
Parma to climb above opponents Benevento
Benevento earned a significant point against the champions last week, ending a worrying losing streak in the process, but Parma's win at Genoa showed they too shouldn't be written off. These two sides are among Serie A's worst in terms of xGF, but a pair of unconvincing defences could yet bring about a decent number of goalscoring chances at Ennio Tardini.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Roma to come out on top in top-six clash
Roma and Sassuolo both stayed towards the top of the table despite defeats last weekend against teams around them, but a second straight defeat would be concerning for either. Roma scored four first half goals against these opponents at the start of last season, and Infogol gives Paulo Fonseca's men a 63% chance of victory, but this is one where goals should be on the cards.
Back the 3-1 @ 12.50
Atalanta to claim victory ahead of European decider
Atalanta may have half an eye on their final Champions League group game, where defeat against Ajax will see them eliminated from the competition, but their squad has enough depth to navigate a trip to Udine before they fly out to Amsterdam. Luca Gotti's hosts are coming off back-to-back wins, and they're the kind of team you write off at your peril, but the visitors have an enviable away record in xG and real terms and have the goods to take all three points.
Back the 0-2 @ 12.50
Napoli to turn up the heat
Napoli's away xGA of just 1.9 from four games is comfortably the lowest in Serie A, and Infogol's model doesn't expect bottom side Crotone to change that. Giovanni Stroppa's men have just one home point this season, and the manager's worries about a fatigued squad are unlikely to put them in the best of shape to trouble the visitors' solid back-line.
Back the 0-2 @ 7.807/1
Milan to maintain their lead at the top
Even at this early stage of the season, AC Milan's five-point lead at the top of the table will have rivals concerned, and the Rossoneri's performances have brought the results they warrant. Sampdoria are the latest side aiming to stop Stefano Pioli's men, having fallen to a 4-1 loss at Luigi Ferraris the last time Milan were in town, and Infogol expects them to fall just short this time around.
Back the 1-2 @ 8.808/1
Fiorentina to pick up crucial win to pull away from relegation battle
Cesare Prandelli will be hopeful of picking up his first league win back at Artemio Franchi, with lowly Genoa coming into the game with four defeats from five. Prandelli's Viola are 53% favourites based on Infogol's model, and if results go their way they could end the weekend five points clear of the relegation zone and able to breathe a little easier.
Back the 2-0 @ 9.4017/2
Spezia v Lazio: Back the 1-2 @ 9.008/1
Juventus v Torino: Back the 3-0 @ 11.0010/1
Inter Milan v Bologna: Back the 3-0 @ 14.0013/1
Verona v Cagliari: Back the 2-0 @ 11.5021/2
Parma v Benevento: Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Roma v Sassuolo: Back the 3-1 @ 12.50
Udinese v Atalanta: Back the 0-2 @ 12.50
Crotone v Napoli: Back the 0-2 @ 7.807/1
Sampdoria v AC Milan: Back the 1-2 @ 8.808/1
Fiorentina v Genoa: Back the 2-0 @ 9.4017/2