Serie A Betting: Expect goals and entertainment when Juve host Milan

Giorgio Chiellini and Alessio Cerci could be key figures at the Juventus Stadium
Giorgio Chiellini and Alessio Cerci could be key figures at the Juventus Stadium
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Dave Farrar predicts a Juventus-Milan thriller, Roma to end the Bologna resurgence and a tight game between Verona and Napoli...

“With the home team likely to find a way through as well, this looks set to be good Saturday night entertainment, and Over 2.5 Goals at 2.28 looks too good to ignore.”

Juventus v Milan
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Having won two successive Serie A matches, and finding some previously elusive home form, Juventus are starting to loom large in the Scudetto picture. They're nine points behind the joint leaders and don't be surprised if they still have a part to play at the end of the season.

Juve will be disappointed not to have made absolutely sure of Champions League progress after a double dose of Borussia Mönchengladbach, and they'll have one eye on next week's game here against Manchester City. That may give improving Milan a chance, and with Alessio Cerci and Carlos Bacca starting to find some real form, I expect Juve's shaky rearguard to be tested here.

Max Allegri's team have conceded in each of their last three, and Gigi Buffon's muscular problem means that there's a possible start for the error prone Norberto Neto.

Giorgio Chiellini hasn't looked like the force of old, and with Stephan Lichtsteiner also in doubt the temptation could be to side with Milan at a gigantic looking 7.26/1.

A team which has won three of its last four against decent opposition really shouldn't be that kind of price, but I'm struggling to oppose Juve here, and instead will focus on the likelihood of goals in the game.

Last season, this fixture finished 3-1 in Juve's favour, and with the Bianconeri's last two Serie A games both going Over 2.5 goals, that outcome looks likely here, and shouldn't be available at odds against.

Milan drew 0-0 with Atalanta last time, but prior to that had won 3-1 in Rome against Lazio and laid down a template for the way that they want to play away from home: sharp and incisive on the counter attack, just the kind of approach which could seriously trouble Juve.

With the home team likely to find a way through as well, this looks set to be good Saturday night entertainment, and Over 2.5 Goals at 2.285/4 looks too good to ignore.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Juventus v Milan @ 2.285/4

Verona v Napoli
Sunday, 11:30
Live on BT Sport Europe

There should only be one winner in Sunday's early kick off between Verona and Napoli, with Maurizio Sarri's visitors in terrific form, unbeaten in all competition since their opening day defeat by Sassuolo.

Napoli are priced at 1.4740/85 and that seems fair, given that Verona have scored only eight times all season, are missing their key forward player Luca Toni, and are yet to win this campaign.

If Napoli have an Achilles heel, though, it would seem to be against smaller teams away from home. They drew 0-0 in Carpi, were held by the same scoreline in Genoa, and needed a moment of inspiration from Gonzalo Higuain to beat Chievo 1-0.

I can understand why Under 2.5 goals is trading at 2.47/5 in this, but I think that's a big price. Napoli have it in them to overwhelm Verona and dish out a beating, but they haven't been doing much of that lately. They were 1-0 victors against Udinese last time, and their last four Serie A games have all gone Under 2.5 goals.

Such is the nature of Napoli's current style: dominant in possession, capable of brilliant, flowing football, but also of strangling the opposition, that I feel it's worth taking a chance that they struggle to break down a defensive Hellas.

Verona's last three Serie A games have also gone Under 2.5, and while it's seductive to think of this as an old school Sunday morning thriller, there's every chance that it will be another job done for Napoli: no thrills, just ruthlessness. It's a style which may just win them the League, and us some Sunday money.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Verona v Napoli @ 2.47/5

Bologna v Roma
Saturday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 2

It's not a weekend that leads you to throw too much money at any of Serie A's other fixtures, but I can't resist a small stab at Roma to show their quality and win in Bologna.

Bologna have been resurgent under Roberto Donadoni and have now won three of their last four, but this will be a different matter entirely.

Roma may have a Champions League appointment against Barcelona to prepare for, but they won't take their eye off the League and this should be routine for Rudi Garcia. I'm surprised to see Roma as big as 1.84/5 to win this, and fully expect them to walk away with three points.

Rather like Napoli, Roma are becoming more cutthroat, and that has set them up for a tilt at the title. Games like this use to trouble them, but haven't been doing so this season, and depth of squad and a surge in confidence should see them through, even with Gervinho and Mohamed Salah injured.

Recommended Bet
Back Roma to beat Bologna @ 1.84/5

2015-16 P/L

Staked: 33 points
Returned: 32.29
P/L: -0.71

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