Dave Farrar predicts goals galore with the new leaders, an even game between Milan and Fiorentina, and Inter to rediscover their form in Bergamo...
"I’d be surprised to see Napoli keep a clean sheet, and so Both Teams to Score is worth a second look at 2.01/1, but on balance, Over 3.5 Goals looks to be the play."
Napoli v Sassuolo
Live on BT Sport 1
So Napoli are the Winter Champions of Serie A, and the statistics say that they should be overwhelming favourites to win the title. I sincerely hope that they do, but still feel that Juventus are the best bet at 2.1211/10. They are the more consistent, they have the easier fixtures coming at home, and I think that they will once again be Champions.
In the more immediate future Napoli host Sassuolo and, after they won 1-0 at Inter, Eusebio Di Francesco's team will believe that anything is possible. Sassuolo were excellent at San Siro, but the 1-0 scoreline in that game doesn't really tell the story of the match. It was wide open, and after they beat Napoli 2-1 on the opening day of the season, they'll go to the San Paolo with confidence. That remains one of only two defeats in all competition for Maurizio Sarri's men.
I went against goals in Napoli's trip to Frosinone last week, and was wrong, but I think that there will be goals in this one. Sassuolo's approach last week led to a thriller (it was beyond belief that there was only one goal) and there's no reason for them to change their style this week.
I'd be surprised to see Napoli keep a clean sheet, and so Both Teams to Score is worth a second look at 2.01/1, but on balance, Over 3.5 Goals looks to be the play. I expect Sassuolo to put up a solid fight, but Napoli look so destructive at the moment that they could end up winning comfortably.
It's a shame that hometown boy Paolo Cannavaro and star forward Domenico Berardi are suspended for the trip.
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Napoli v Sassuolo @ 2.47/5
Milan v Fiorentina
Live on BT Sport 1
Goals will be on the agenda at San Siro as well, with Fiorentina having scored in every game and showing enough vulnerability at the back to give Milan a chance here. La Viola were beaten by Lazio last time, while Milan drew with Roma, and Sinisa Mihajlovic's team have shown enough improvement to suggest that his methods are finally starting to work.
The Rossoneri Coach isn't known for being a great entertainer, but that reputation is a little undeserved, and Milan are one of those teams who are badly affected by chances not taken. They're creating plenty, but missing a high percentage of them, and it looks to be a simple matter of time before one of their big name strikers finds form.
Both teams have found the back of the net in three of Milan's last four games, and the same is true of Fiorentina's last two, and so a price just a shade of odds on seems fair.
Both Teams to Score in Milan v Fiorentina @ 1.910/11
Atalanta v Inter
After being beaten by Sassuolo, Inter have an ideal fixture in which to regain their equilibrium: Atalanta have lost their last four games in a row, and three of their last four at home, and they're sinking fast.
Inter didn't play badly against Sassuolo, and were a little unfortunate. I don't expect Roberto Mancini to change things dramatically, and Inter's cautiously controlling style should prove more than enough to see them continue the form that has earned them four away wins in their last five.
It's worth noting that Inter's counter attacking style seems to make them more vulnerable at home than away, and while their form at San Siro could cost them the title, they're a solid proposition on their travels.
Atalanta may well be buoyed by new loan signing Alessandro Diamanti, who arrived from Watford this week.
Back Inter to win against Atalanta @ 2.1211/10
Staked: 51 points
Returned: 43.82 points
P/L: -7.18 points