Serie A Betting: Inter's goal machine back in gear, but Genoa and Samp have broken down

Mauro Icardi
Dave expects Mauro Icardi and Inter to sweep Hellas Verona aside
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Dave Farrar predicts Mauro Icardi and his Nerazzurri teammates will tear Verona to pieces, while SPAL and Chievo can cause surprises as they fight relegation...

“We can back Inter with a 2 and a 2.5 goal start at around the even money mark, and that seems like a price worth taking, given their recent resurgence and Verona’s troubles at the back.”

Icardi and Co can't stop scoring

Inter v Verona
Saturday, 14:00 BST
Live on Betfair Live Video

The "Inter are back" headlines are being dusted off again, after Luciano Spalletti's team blew Sampdoria away last week and made another convincing case for the argument that they can finish the season powerfully and even have a chance of nicking third place from Roma.

Having destroyed Samp with a superb display of Mauro Icardi finishing, they'll be eager to do something similar to Verona, and when you consider that this weekend's visitors lost 5-0 themselves last week against Atalanta, you can see the logic for a heavy home win at San Siro this week.

I know that Verona kept the score down in their trips to Napoli and Lazio, but Inter have scored an average of 2.3 goals per game in their last 15 meetings with them, and they are very strong defensively at San Siro. They've kept a clean sheet there in their last three Serie A games, and are likely to do so again, which means that they're worth supporting on the Asian Handicap.

We can back Inter with a 2 and a 2.5 goal start at around the even money mark, and that seems like a price worth taking, given their recent resurgence and Verona's troubles at the back. Icardi is gunning for that Capocannoniere crown, and Inter will remain at full throttle as he goes for glory, and they aim for third place.

Another SPAL upset possible

Genoa v SPAL
Saturday, 14:00 BST
Live on Betfair Live Video

Genoa are trading at around even money for the visit of SPAL, and that seems like too short a price for a team who have been fading fast in recent weeks. Davide Ballardini did a wonderful job to steady the Genoa ship and lead them to safety, but now that the task has seemingly been done, his side seem to be feeling the effects.

The Grifone still aren't safe, but a lot of teams will need to improve rapidly for them to fall into the bottom three, while SPAL are just a point from the relegation zone after they battled to a draw against Juventus last time.

That will have given SPAL serious confidence, and they're now unbeaten in their last four Serie A games. When you consider both teams' recent records, SPAL really shouldn't be trading at 4.57/2 to win at Marassi.

Genoa have struggled desperately for goals, and everything that they have achieved since Ballardini took over has been based on a solid defence. That has started to crack of late, and SPAL showed at Crotone that they are more than capable of going away from home and scoring.

This is a case of two evenly matched teams, one in poor form, and the other full of belief and spirit. I think that we should support the latter, and with the draw firmly on our side, we should lay Genoa at even money.

Beware of Flying Donkeys

Chievo v Sampdoria
Saturday, 17:00 BST
Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video

With Juventus playing Real Madrid in the Champions League next week, and with Milan's form potentially on the brink of tailing away after a tired performance against Chievo last time, I'll steer clear of tipping anything in Serie A's game of the weekend, and focus instead on the team that so nearly caused an upset at San Siro last time.

Chievo have been the worst team in Serie A since Christmas, winning five points fewer than any other side, and yet there were signs last time against Milan that they might be coming back to some kind of form. They led Milan, only to be beaten late on, but will surely bring the momentum from that performance into a home game against a dispirited Sampdoria.

Marco Giampaolo's team have been dreadful in recent weeks, having lost 4-1 at Crotone and then 5-0 at home against Inter, and they'll run into a Chievo team that is desperate for every point as they look to avoid the slide towards relegation, which has suddenly become a real possibility.

Chievo have won only one game since November 25, and have been pitifully short of goals, but their performance last time was encouraging, and they may be fighting this weekend to keep their popular Coach Rolando Maran in a job.

Chievo have won three of their last five Serie A games against Samp, and I think that they'll find another big performance here to move themselves away from the relegation zone, as Samp's excellent season continues to head back towards mediocrity.

2017-18 P/L

Staked: 83 points
Returned: 98.34 points
P/L: + 15.34 points

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