Serie A Betting: Fiorentina run to come to an end & expect goals in Rome

Ciro Immobile and Alisson Becker in Roma v Lazio
Expect more goals and dramatic celebrations when Lazio and Roma face off in the derby
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Dave Farrar predicts excitement in the Rome Derby, Napoli's Scudetto ambitions to hit a Milan wall and SPAL to stop the record Fiorentina run...

“Lazio have scored more Serie A goals than anyone this season, and no team has attempted more shots than Roma. Both teams are capable of defending, but their natural instinct is to attack.”

Expect fireworks in Rome Derby

Lazio v Roma
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

After one miracle at the Olimpico, Roma must focus on a massive Rome derby at the same venue. I'm still not sure HOW they did it, but am delighted that they did, and Serie A can celebrate at least one representative in the semi-finals of the Champions League.

Eusebio Di Francesco would have loved a little time to reflect on what his team achieved in midweek, but he doesn't have it, and with these two locked on 60 points in the battle for a place in the Champions League next season, it's a game that neither can afford to lose.

In Serie A, that naturally points you towards a draw, but I'm keen to look at the goals markets for this one. Lazio have scored more Serie A goals than anyone this season, and no team has attempted more shots than Roma. Both teams are capable of defending, but their natural instinct is to attack, and Lazio's last four Serie A games have produced 17 goals.

Roma showed their vulnerability last weekend, when they conceded twice against Fiorentina, and they'll almost certainly concede against Simone Inzaghi's team, but the wave that they're surfing right now means that they're likely to score as well.

The last time that Roma failed to score in two consecutive Serie A games was three years ago, and with both teams going for the win here, I think this is one of those fixtures in which one goal will lead to a few more.

There is a temptation to back Lazio to win given the week that Roma have had, but those kind of bets are a little too simplistic for me, and so I'm happy to back there to be at least four goals.

Viola run has to end sometime

Fiorentina v SPAL
Sunday, 11:30
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video

Fiorentina's remarkable run of form continued last weekend against Roma, and they are now looking for their seventh consecutive win as they face SPAL in Florence in the early game on Sunday.

You can't knock the Viola story: a sense of togetherness after the death of Davide Astori, a seemingly unstoppable will that has seen them surge up the table. It has been extraordinary and heartening, but I think that the run might come to an end this weekend.

Why should SPAL succeed where Roma failed? Well, Roma were hugely (and, as it turned out, relevantly) distracted by their Champions League game against Barcelona, and things didn't go their way at the Olimpico. And SPAL are fighting like demons to keep their place in the top flight, a quality that you can't underestimate at this point of the season.

Leonardo Semplici's team are now unbeaten in their last six Serie A fixtures, a run that includes draws against Juventus and Atalanta, and indeed away to Genoa. They are made of stern stuff, and know that every single point matters for them as they fight against the drop.

And Roma are the only team of note that Fiorentina have beaten on their run. They scrambled a win against both Benevento and Chievo, before beating Torino with a last-minute penalty. This is a team which is solid defensively, but is not blowing anyone away. SPAL's recent form shows just how hard they are to beat, and I think that they're too big getting a half a goal start on the Asian Handicap.

If Fiorentina do make it seven, they'll have fought for every single second of the 90 minutes.

Milan tough nut for Napoli

AC Milan v Napoli
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport ESPN and Betfair Live Video

Napoli just about kept their title hopes on track last week in that astonishing climax against Chievo, but they'll be made to work at San Siro, and yet are being priced up as if it was November.

Milan are stronger than they were then, Napoli significantly less so, and there's no way that Maurizio Sarri's team should be as short as they are to win in Milan this weekend.

Milan HAVE lost three of their last four here against Napoli, and their stellar run of form has stalled somewhat. They pushed Juve all the way, though, looked tired against Inter, and then lost focus against Sassuolo last time. Now that Gennaro Gattuso is permanently confirmed in the Rossoneri job, I think that we'll see Milan push until the end of the season.

And as for Napoli, their recent form doesn't read well. A draw against Sassuolo and a near defeat against Chievo would indicate that they are starting to feel a long season, feel the pressure, and they just don't look like a team that is ready to head to San Siro and win.

Milan will be missing both centre-halves, Leo Bonucci and Alessio Romagnoli, which means that Cristian Zapata and Mateo Musacchio will have to play. They're not the worst replacements, and I'd be concerned by the suspension of Mario Rui for Napoli and how it limits their threat from full-back.

Napoli simply have to win, with Juve likely to beat Samp, and I think that they'll fall short. Milan are certainly worth supporting.

2017/18 P/L

Staked: 92 points
Returned: 106.12 points
P/L: + 14.12 points

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