Serie A Betting: Napoli can take Inter down this time

Dries Mertens and Joao Miranda will throw everything at the Sunday night showdown
Dries Mertens and Joao Miranda will throw everything at the Sunday night showdown
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Dave Farrar predicts the Partenopei won't drop points at San Siro, Genoa will end the Milan unbeaten run and Bologna to trouble Atalanta.

“I doubt that it will be high scoring, but I think Genoa can do it again, and edge to a narrow win over Milan at a decent price.”

It's been a difficult week to be a Serie A fan, and the action returns this weekend with a layer of perspective. I think we all know deep down that it's only football, and it's only a bet, but if ever there was a time to stop and remember that, it's now.

Last Saturday was a pivotal one in the title race, but Juve's dramatic win at Lazio and Napoli's capitulation against Roma seem like they're from a different lifetime. We move forward with another fascinating weekend, with last Sunday never to be forgotten.

Napoli can extend unbeaten streak

Inter v Napoli
Sunday, 19:45 GMT
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

Inter will be fresh coming into this after the Milan derby was postponed last weekend, and Napoli will have to recover quickly from their desperate defeat at the hands of Roma.

The Nerazzurri have beaten Napoli only once in their last 10 Serie A meetings, and are the clear outsiders here. I mentioned last week when I opposed Napoli against Roma that they can struggle against well-organised teams who are prepared to take risks against them, and while that was true of Roma, I'm not sure that the same can be said for Inter.

Luciano Spalletti's side did a great job of stifling Maurizio Sarri's team at the San Paolo earlier in the campaign, but they'll have to be more positive here in front of a demanding home crowd, and that will leave them vulnerable to the best counter attacking team in Europe.

Mauro Icardi will be back, which both boosts Inter and adds to the pressure, and I fancy Napoli to come away with the win which will stop their season from crumbling. Win here and they are still very much in the title race. Draw or lose and it may well be over.

Napoli will most likely start the game in second place in the table (presuming that Juventus have beaten Udinese) and that could add to the pressure, but they are unbeaten in 26 away from home and I believe that Inter are tailor made for them.

Recommended Bet
Back Napoli to beat Inter @ 2.0811/10

Bologna more than capable of defying the odds

Bologna v Atalanta
Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Bologna play Atalanta on Sunday afternoon and I'm bemused as to why you can back the home team at 4.1 to beat an Atalanta side who aren't exactly in great form. They haven't won in their last five, and have gone out of both the Coppa Italia and the Europa League in that time.

Bologna may have lost six of their last seven meetings with Atalanta, but that won't count for anything on Sunday, and even though they're not necessarily a team to be relied upon, they have won their last two home games, and are certainly capable of performing.

Atalanta are only five points clear of Roberto Donadoni's team, are on a poor run, and yet they're 2.01/1 to win at the Renato Dall'Ara. Bologna may be without Giancarlo Gonzalez, but that doesn't disrupt them too much, and I'm a little baffled by the market.

We should always try to take advantage of perceived anomalies, and while I'm sorely tempted by the 4.1 on offer about a Bologna win, I always like to keep the draw on side, and so will support the home team on the Asian Handicap.

Recommended Bet
Back Bologna +0.5 on the Asian Handicap v Atalanta @ 1.9210/11

Milan unlikely to bounce back

Genoa v Milan
Sunday, 17:00 GMT
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

Milan take their excellent run of form to Marassi to face Genoa, and after a tough game in Europe on Thursday night, Milan will have to show excellent powers of recovery to come away with anything.

Genoa might have lost in Bologna last time, but prior to that they'd shown extraordinary durability to win at Lazio, and then beat Inter here. Milan will be a tougher assignment, but it's hard to ignore the fact that Genoa are trading at 3.211/5 for the win.

Genoa have confidence on their side too: they've won each of their last three Serie A games against Milan without conceding a goal, and their all-action style will be suited by the physical edge that they'll enjoy here. They've had two weeks rest, Milan just a few days.

I expect this to be a slow burner, but Genoa are strong enough to stay defensively strong against a team that can lack inspiration, and then find a way of breaking down Gattuso's much vaunted backline in the second half.

I doubt that it will be high scoring, but I think Genoa can do it again, and edge to a narrow win at a decent price.

Recommended Bet
Back Genoa to beat Milan @ 3.211/5

2017-18 P/L

Staked: 77 points
Returned: 96.26 points
P/L: +19.26 points

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