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Serie A Betting: Favour Inter in Florence

Antonio Candreva might get his pecs out again after Inter face a weakened Fiorentina
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Dave Farrar predicts the Nerazzurri will make the most of Fiorentina absentees, not so easy for Napoli and goals galore in Udine...


"The biggest surprise in the prices available is that Fiorentina and Inter are trading as joint favourites for the win. Inter should be shorter, and Inter should win the game."

Fiorentina v Inter
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport Extra 2


After their resurgence under Stefano Pioli and all the talk of them being the coming force in Italian football, Inter have stumbled badly, and there's now serious talk of Pioli's job being on the line when they travel to the Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina on Saturday night.

Fiorentina have been a strange proposition this season, curiously lacking in direction and leadership, and with Paulo Sousa guaranteed to be on his way in the summer, the 2017-18 season will be a fresh start for them.

Their loss against Empoli last time was just staggering, and Inter will travel with confidence. They may have failed to beat Milan, but they controlled large parts of the game and looked somewhere near their best.

There are two pieces of key personnel news as well for La Viola: they'll be without Gonzalo Rodriguez and Nikola Kalinic, which weakens them significantly, and also means that Inter's terrible defence (the fifth worst over the last seven League games) may not be tested as much as it might have been.

Rodriguez's absence means that Fiorentina will probably play a back three, with midfielder Carlos Sanchez deployed as a centre-half: that spells trouble against Mauro Icardi, Ivan Perisic and Antonio Candreva.

There'll likely be goals on Saturday night, it's hard to see them NOT being, but the biggest surprise in the prices available is that Fiorentina and Inter are trading as joint favourites for the win. Inter should be shorter, and Inter should win the game.

Recommended Bet
Back Inter to beat Fiorentina @ [2.7]


Sassuolo v Napoli
Sunday, 11:30
Live on BT Sport 3


Napoli will almost certainly beat Sassuolo on Sunday morning, and are priced at [1.42] to do so, but of more interest is the way that they're likely to do it.

Maurizio Sarri's side are famously free scoring, and when on song they're the best team to watch in the division, and one of the most thrilling in Europe.

And they seem to be in a good place at the moment, winning 32 points in the last 13 rounds, a mark that only Juventus can match, and brushing aside Udinese last weekend.

They travel to play a Sassuolo side who put an end to a run of five consecutive home defeats last time, and who are one of those teams fortunate that the standard at the bottom of the table has been so execrable this season. In a stronger year, they could so easily be fighting relegation right now.

Napoli, though, don't do things the easy way, and have conceded in six of their last seven away games, including against the likes of Chievo and Empoli (twice) and even when they scored seven in Bologna.

Even though Sassuolo will be missing Gregoire Defrel, they have enough about them to take advantage of Napoli's concentration lapses, and they have scored in each of their last four Serie A matches (and Defrel has only one of those).

It's a pretty poor weekend in Serie A, and so one where some of my more ambitious ideas go out of the window. Backing Both Teams to Score in this may not be the most thrilling recommendation, but I think that it's a relatively safe one.

Recommended Bet
"Yes" to Both Teams to Score in Sassuolo v Napoli @ [1.8]


Udinese v Cagliari
Sunday, 14:00


As I mentioned previously, this isn't a Serie A weekend to stir the senses, and we'll have much better opportunities going forward, but I think there's a good chance of goals in Udine this Sunday afternoon.

Udinese lost in Naples last week, but that's excusable, and they'd been in a terrific patch of form before that. Cagliari have won three games from losing positions away from home this season, more than any other team in the League, and that gives you an idea of the way that Massimo Rastelli's side has started to play on their travels.

All of Cagliari's last three games have gone Over 3.5 Goals, while the make-up of Udinese's last five games reads: 4, 5, 4, 3, 3 - those statistics are backed up with playing logic. These are two teams who've decided to play a certain way, and now that there isn't a great deal other than table position to play for, this could be wide open.

Over 3.5 Goals is available at [2.7] which seems more than fair.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Udinese v Cagliari @ [2.7]


2016-17 P/L

Staked: 96 points
Returned: 111.19 points
P/L: + 15.19 points

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