Dave Farrar predicts goals aplenty as Juventus try to avenge their Super Cup defeat to Lazio, Roma to emphatically end the Napoli perfect start and the Milan Derby going Inter's way...
“Lazio have already beaten Juventus in the Super Cup and the 20 goals that they've scored in their last five Serie A games give you an idea of why they've had such a stunning start to the season”
Lazio haven't beaten Juventus in Serie A for 14 years, but given the form that Simone Inzaghi's team have shown so far this season, and the way that Juve lost a two-goal lead against Atalanta, there'll be many who feel that Lazio represent a little bit of value in Turin at around the [6.4] mark.
I get the argument, but I don't agree with it, as Juve have shown repeatedly in recent seasons that they're the masters of bouncing back. Yes, they've blinked first in the battle between the top two, but Max Allegri's team know that Napoli will make mistakes as well, and they'll be determined to get three points against Lazio to get momentum going again.
It won't be easy: Lazio have already beaten Juventus in the Super Cup and the 20 goals that they've scored in their last five Serie A games give you an idea of why they've had such a stunning start to the season. Ciro Immobile's current goal-scoring form is eclipsed in Europe only by that of Lionel Messi, and with nine goals in his seven League appearances, he's the likeliest threat.
I know that Juve will provide a stern defensive test, but Lazio have already shown that they can trouble them, and I wouldn't be surprised to see goals in this, so will recommend betting on at least four of them, at [3.2].
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Juventus-Lazio @ [3.2]
Despite the lip-smacking offerings which are available elsewhere, this Saturday night clash at the Olimpico is the game of this wonderful Serie A weekend, and I think that Roma are too big to win it.
Napoli are, of course, wonderful to watch and hugely effective, and I will never tire in my admiration for Maurizio Sarri and the way that he insists on playing, but I don't think that his team will win Serie A this season, and I don't think that they should be as short as [2.46] to win in Rome.
The only real misstep from Roma this season so far was their home defeat by Inter. That was early in the reign of Eusebio Di Francesco, and Roma were the better side until they let the game go late on. Since their 0-0 draw with Atletico Madrid, they've won five in a row, including that calm demolition of Milan last time.
This Roma does not play in that traditionally flamboyant Giallorossi style: they'll be more cautious, will look to close down space, and I think that they have a good chance of stopping Sarri's team, who will ultimately miss the injured Arek Milik.
In the end, the decision comes down to probable outcomes and to price. Roma are being severely undervalued here, and so I want to take advantage of that. They're the bet.
Back Roma to beat Napoli @ [3.15]
We round off the weekend with a Milan derby that will tell us plenty about where these two great clubs are: Inter are on the up, Milan should be. One team looks settled, the other still disorganised.
Luciano Spalletti's Inter have now won six of their seven games this season and are unburdened by European football. They are the team that is most likely to lay down a challenge to the big two and they haven't done much wrong so far.
Milan have now lost consecutive League games against Samp and Roma, and the Vincenzo Montella project is lacking coherence right now. They need a win against their biggest rival to show that progress is being made, but I don't think that they'll get it.
There are those who feel that Inter's results have flattered them so far, but I believe that, even without Marcelo Brozovic, they'll be too good for Milan, and are also too big at [2.22] for the win. Spalletti has won his last three meetings with Montella, and he's likely to make it four in a row.
Back Inter to beat Milan @ [2.22]
Staked: 20 points
Returned: 44.60 points
P/L: + 24.60 points