Serie A Betting: Grudge match in Naples

Juventus striker Gonzalo Higuain will get a fiery reception at his old club Napoli
Juventus striker Gonzalo Higuain will get a fiery reception at his old club Napoli
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Dave Farrar predicts Gonzalo Higuain's Juventus will get the better of Napoli, plus a flood of goals in Turin and Milan...


“You don't get the chance to back Juve at odds against very often, and for all that Gonzalo Higuain is out of form and will be whistled and booed for as long as he lasts, I still think that the Champions have enough to finish off Napoli.”

Napoli v Juventus
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport


For anyone who still believes that the race for the Scudetto could yet be a contest, Napoli simply must beat Juventus on Sunday. And Maurizio Sarri's team are not without hope. The Napoli tactican won the Panchina D'Oro award this week, for Italy's Coach of the year, and his talented team is capable of giving Juve real problems.

Juve beat Napoli narrowly in Turin earlier in the season, and then they beat them again in the Coppa Italia amid controversy, and yet it's Napoli who start this game as favourites, so fearsome is their home record. They've lost only twice at the San Paolo this season, and both defeats were against top teams. Roma and Atalanta (whose form this season means they count as a top team) both proved too good, and there's a strong chance that Juve will fit into that category too.

Napoli have won six of their last nine home League games against Juventus, and that's why they're trading so short, but here they're coming up against a rock solid Juve, one that is primed to win the title again, and one which believes that the Champions League is also a real possibility.

That first leg against Barcelona isn't until a week on Tuesday, and so Juve shouldn't be distracted. Given that they have conceded only 19 goals this season, and given that Napoli have struggled here against two teams which defended stoutly and created problems on the counter attack, I tend to look at the 2.982/1 that's available about a Juve win and think that we should grab it.

You don't get the chance to back Juve at odds against very often, and for all that Gonzalo Higuain is out of form and will be whistled and booed for as long as he lasts, I still think that the Champions have enough about them to finish off Napoli, and ensure that they'll be lifting the title once again at the end of the season.

Paulo Dybala may well be rested after a muscular problem and Marko Pjaca is out for the rest of the season. Notably, these two sides will clash again at the San Paolo on Wednesday in the second leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final, so much will depend on which game they each consider to be more important.

Recommended Bet
Back Juventus to beat Napoli @ 2.982/1


Torino v Udinese
Sunday, 11:30
Live on BT Sport 3


Torino's last six Serie A games have now gone Over 3.5 Goals, and yet that outcome is priced up here at 2.915/8. That makes it a must bet, as Udinese are a long way from some of the long ball bores that Gigi Delneri has coached over the years.

Both of these teams have had seasons to forget: mired in mid table and fortunate that more of a relegation battle hasn't developed beneath them.

Andrea Belotti has of course been Torino's star, and he'll hope to mark his 100th Serie A appearance by extending his current mark of 22 goals: the race for that Capocannoniere crown remains fierce.

They've been let down defensively, though, with only Pescara and Palermo conceding more goals than them since the start of 2017, and with Udinese more than capable of taking advantage of any defensive errors, Torino could be in trouble in the early Sunday game.

Udinese have scored seven goals in their last two Serie A matches, and conceded in both, and when you add that current form to the good and bad of Torino, there's only really one conclusion to be drawn. There'll be more goals on Sunday, and that outcome is attractively priced.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Torino v Udinese @ 2.915/8


Inter v Sampdoria
Monday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 3


Inter saw their momentum halted last time out by Torino, but that game reaffirmed a notion which has been good to us in recent weeks: that games involving Inter tend to have goals. That's a bandwagon which it's worth staying on as the Nerazzurri face an in form Sampdoria.

It's no great surprise to see Marco Giampaolo linked with some of the very top jobs in Serie A after the work that he's done at Marassi, and after his team beat Inter earlier in the season, he'll be confident of emerging with something from San Siro.

This is a very different Inter team, though, one that has blended brilliantly under Stefano Pioli. They look like they'll continue to score goals, continue to struggle defensively, and therefore continue to entertain.

Inter's last four games have now produced 22 goals, and I don't see that trend ending against a Samp side with plenty going for them in forward areas. Fabio Quagliarella and Luis Muriel will revel in the wide open spaces afforded them by Inter, although I don't think that Samp will be quite good enough to make a lay of the home team a sensible play at a short price.

Recommended Bet
Over 3.5 Goals in Inter v Sampdoria @ 2.26/5


2016-17 P/L

Staked: 87 points
Returned: 100.89 points
P/L: + 13.89 points

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