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Saturday Premier League Tipsheet: Villa to pass their last chance saloon examination

Mike Norman
04 February 2016

It's about time Remi Garde was smiling - he will be at 5pm on Saturday says Mike

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Another solid tipping performance from Mike Norman in midweek with four winners including a Leicester win and a draw at The Hawthorns, and now our man turns his attention to Saturday's six 3pm games in the Premier League with perhaps a surprising best bet wager...

"Aston Villa are now unbeaten in three Premier League home matches, holding top six sides Leicester and West Ham to draws as well as beating Crystal Palace."

Back Aston Villa @ 2.526/4 to beat Norwich

Aston Villa 2.526/4 v Norwich 3.39/4; The Draw 3.39/4

A meeting between two very poor sides, both of which could be playing Championship football next season.

Aston Villa will almost certainly be in England's second tier for the next campaign but if they are to retain any hope of survival after this weekend then they simply must beat Norwich at Villa Park on Saturday afternoon.

And if I'm being perfectly honest I'm finding it hard to determine which side is actually in the worse form. Norwich has lost five on the spin for example, and they've conceded at least three goals in each of those defeats and an alarming 17 in total.

As for Villa it's just one Premier League win in 23 games, and they go into this match on the back of a 0-4 defeat to Man City the last time they were on home soil. In fact Remi Garde's men now haven't scored a single goal in any of their last three matches.

It's perhaps a little surprising then that Villa are favourites to win this six-pointer, but I believe that's justifiable given that they've at least won a game recently and that they're now unbeaten in three Premier League home matches, holding top six sides Leicester and West Ham to draws as well as beating Crystal Palace.

It's a must win game for Villa and I think they might just manage it.

Recommended Bet
Back Aston Villa to Win @ 2.526/4 (best bet)

Liverpool 1.454/9 v Sunderland 9.28/1; The Draw 4.94/1

It's hard to make a convincing case for Liverpool being any sort of value at 1.454/9 to win this game given their recent form.

Yes, I know Saturday's opponents are Sunderland, but it's a Sunderland team who are scrapping for their lives at present, and one that was extremely unfortunate not to take at least a point against Manchester City in midweek.

The Black Cats also have an in-form striker in their ranks in Jermain Defoe, and quite surprisingly given that Liverpool scored five against Norwich and three against Arsenal, Sam Allardyce's men have actually scored more league goals (nine) in their last five matches than The Reds (eight).

It's also worth mentioning that Liverpool's only victory at Anfield in 2016 was against League Two outfit Exeter. Jurgen Klopp's men have had home draws with Arsenal and West Ham since the turn of the year as well as defeats to Manchester United and Stoke.

Liverpool's home form has been pretty uninspiring all season if truth be told, but under Klopp they've recorded just two league wins in front of their own fans, and on the two occasions that they scored more than once in a match (two v West Brom, three v Arsenal) they failed to win both times.

My gut feeling is that Sunderland can get on the scoresheet this weekend, and if that's the case then a lay of fragile Liverpool has to be the call.

Recommended Bet
Lay Liverpool to Win @ 1.4640/85

Newcastle 2.245/4 v West Brom 3.9; The Draw 3.412/5

Big spending Newcastle and their new look side hardly got off to the greatest start with a 3-0 defeat at Everton in midweek, a result that leaves them cemented in the bottom three of the table with only Norwich - two points above them - a realistic target at present.

But the defeat was perhaps more damaging that it first appears. Everton haven't been in great form themselves and have been conceding goals for fun, so for Newcastle - who have spent in excess of £80m this season, mostly on attack-minded players - to go there and get a hiding was a huge disappointment.

Only Swansea, Villa, and West Brom have scored fewer goals than Steve McClaren's men this term, and that has to be a worry, while at the back they've now got the third worse defensive record in the Premier League.

Thankfully for Newcastle their home form hasn't been too bad, and if they can repeat the performance they produced when they beat West Ham 2-1 the last time they were at St James' Park then they have an excellent chance of beating a West Brom side struggling to win games themselves.

It's just two wins in 11 league games for Tony Pulis' men and they haven't won on the road since beating a poor Norwich side 1-0 in October. Consider also that The Baggies failed to beat Bristol City and Peterborough on home soil in the FA Cup, they also failed to beat bottom-of-the-table Aston Villa a few weeks ago, and their last away game in the league was a 3-0 thrashing at Southampton.

In summary, this is a meeting between two out-of-form sides but I believe home advantage could be crucial here and I'm willing to give Newcastle a chance to repeat their latest victory in front of their own fans.

Recommended Bet
Back Newcastle to Win @ 2.245/4

Stoke 2.89/5 v Everton 2.89/5; The Draw 3.55/2

Stoke smashed their record transfer fee on Deadline Day when signing Giannelli Imbula from Porto for over £18m, and all eyes will be on the French holding midfielder here.

Mark Hughes is building a very good squad at the Britannia Stadium, one strong enough to challenge for a top six finish next term. I put Stoke up as a dark horse to challenge for the top six this season, and thought they were a great bet to finish in the top 10 at least, but boy are they making me sweat.

Hughes' men have now suffered back-to-back 3-0 defeats in the Premier League, and before that they were involved in a 0-0 draw, so it's three league games in succession now that the Potters have failed to find the back of the net.

In their defence, Stoke were away to Leicester and Manchester United in that time while their home game was against Arsenal, so perhaps there's now cause for alarm just yet.

I've banged on for weeks now about the fact that the only league wins Everton have recorded since September were against the bottom three clubs in the division. So when someone sent me a Tweet in midweek after The Toffees' 3-0 win over Newcastle to effectively say, "that's shut you up", I took a bit of pleasure in reminding him that the Magpies are actually in the bottom three!

But at least Roberto Martinez's men recorded a very impressive victory, and they kept a clean sheet too. But the fact remains, on the evidence of this season, they really struggle in the league against teams above them.

Stoke's last three league games at the Britannia Stadium saw them beat Norwich and Manchester United as well as holding title-chasing Arsenal, and I just favour Hughes' men to get back to winning ways here.

Recommended Bet
Back Stoke to Win @ 2.89/5

Swansea 2.47/5 v Crystal Palace 3.613/5; The Draw 3.412/5

Swansea conceded an injury-time equaliser at West Brom in midweek but the result, and the performance, was definitely another step in the right direction.

The Swans are starting to look like the team that commenced the season so well, so I'll reiterate the fact that some of the players are putting this down to the re-found positivity in the camp since Francesco Guidolin took over - midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson the latest to speak highly of the new boss.

Guidolin's men are unbeaten in three now and the seven points they've collected of late have brought them to within five points of Saturday's opponents Crystal Palace, who have from absolutely nowhere fallen into a desperate run of league form.

Alan Pardew's men have now lost five games on the spin in the Premier League, conceding 13 goals in the process while scoring just two. In fact, The Eagles have scored just two goals in their last seven league matches, taking only two of the 21 points available to them in that time.

I'm sure the Palace boss will turn his side's form around, and the one worry for Swansea followers here is that earlier in the campaign Pardew's men were actually better away from home than they were at Selhurst Park.

But on current form, with Swansea appearing to be back close to their best, a home win has to be the recommended bet at a generous looking price.

Recommended Bet
Back Swansea to Win @ 2.47/5

Tottenham 1.528/15 v Watford 8.07/1; The Draw 4.47/2

Tottenham have the best goal difference in the Premier League, a useful indication of just how good a team is I always think, and they're above Arsenal in the table. Life really couldn't be any sweeter at White Hart Lane at the moment.

Spurs' away form has been sensational but they're home form is fine also. True they had a blip against Newcastle and they lost a tight game to league leaders Leicester, but those are the only two reversals Mauricio Pochettino's men have suffered at the Lane in the league this season.

Either side of that Leicester defeat Tottenham were very impressive in recording three-goal winning margins over Norwich and Sunderland, and with Dele Alli and Harry Kane in such fine form it's easy to see another comfortable win being recorded here.

But Watford are in decent form again after going through a sticky patch just after Christmas. They held Chelsea to a goalless draw in midweek, and that followed a win over Newcastle in the league and an excellent away win at in-form Nottm Forest in the FA Cup.

I expect Spurs to win this one, but The Hornets should be able to make a game of it, especially with former Tottenham keeper Heurelho Gomes keen to impress on his return, so instead of taking the short odds about a home victory I'll go for that man Kane to get on the scoresheet once more. The England striker has now scored nine times in the last eight games in which Spurs have scored on home soil.

Recommended Bet
Back Harry Kane to Score @ 2.01/1 or better

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*You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

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