Saturday Premier League Tipsheet: Eagles to be dealt a Hammers blow at the Boleyn

Slaven Bilic has had plenty to applaud during his first season as West Ham boss
Slaven Bilic has had plenty to applaud during his first season as West Ham boss

Mike Norman has been in hot recent form in the Premier League with 11 of his last 14 recommended bets winning, and here our man gives his thoughts on Saturday's six matches kicking off at the traditional time of 3pm...


"So the perception here is that because West Ham aren't a 'big-name' club then they don't deserve to be 1.42/5 shots like Man City were when they hosted Crystal Palace. Maybe not 1.42/5 granted, but on current form, 2.0421/20 about a home win is massive."

Back West Ham @ 2.0421/20 to beat Crystal Palace

Arsenal 1.384/11 v Watford 10.09/1; The Draw 5.49/2

The general feeling is that Arsenal will need to win their last eight games if they are to become Premier League champions, and with that comes a little added pressure, so a must-win game against Watford - a team that won at the Emirates in the FA Cup recently - perhaps isn't ideal.

Having said that, Arsenal at home to a newly-promoted club who are down in 14th in the table really should result in three points for Arsene Wenger's men.

The problem I have with backing the Gunners here is that they are ridiculously short to win the game at 1.384/11 given their recent form, which reads just two victories from their last nine matches in all competitions, including three straight home defeats.

Watford themselves are largely inconsistent but the stand out statistic from their recent results is that none of their last 14 matches have witnessed more than three goals, and only four of those 14 games witnessed more than two goals.

So with two teams not exactly at their best in opposition here, and Arsenal scoring just four goals in their last six home games, I'll take a chance on Under 2.5 Goals paying out at a fair price.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.245/4


Bournemouth 3.9 v Man City 2.0811/10; The Draw 3.711/4

It's easy to forget that Manchester City won their first five league games of this season's campaign and traded as low as 1.384/11 to win the title.

What that means is that in their next 25 league matches Manuel Pellegrini's men have taken just 36 points, and that's on a par with those clubs in and around mid-table - in fact, Saturday's opponents Bournemouth have taken just two points less (34) than the Citizens from their sixth game onwards.

So what we have here is two clubs that would be separated by just two points in a league table showing just their last 25 outings (26 for Bournemouth), and that arguably makes the Cherries the value call to win this game at the prices given they have home advantage.

Consider also that Man City have key injuries to the likes of Joe Hart, Vincent Kompany, Raheem Sterling, and Kevin de Bruyne, and that they face PSG in the Champions League in midweek, then Eddie Howe's men could be one of the bets of the day to take all three points.

Recommended Bet
Back Bournemouth to Win @ 3.9


Norwich 2.35/4 v Newcastle 3.613/5; The Draw 3.412/5

Undoubtedly the game of the day at the bottom end of the table and the biggest match of the season for the two clubs involved.

A win for Norwich will take them six points ahead of Newcastle with at least a six-goal better goal difference, and that is a huge margin with so few games to go. Of course, the Canaries still have Sunderland to worry about but for Newcastle, Norwich will be the side they'll need to chase down and making up six points - effectively seven with that goal difference - will be a big ask.

So this is huge for Rafa Benitez's men. The new boss failed to get a win at home to fierce rivals Sunderland a fortnight ago and failure to win this will leave the Magpies in deep trouble.

And unfortunately, Newcastle's away form suggests very much that they'll lose again. The north east outfit have lost eight on the spin on the road in all competitions and they've scored just two goals in the process. They'll need to dramatically improve to get anything from Carrow Road and I'm not sure they're capable of it.

True, Norwich have been in very poor form themselves but they've at least taken four points from their last two games and they've recorded back-to-back clean sheets.

It will be a very tense game and not one to get too heavily involved in financially, but I just fancy Alex Neil's men to take the points and leave Newcastle with a mountain to climb to avoid the drop.

Recommended Bet
Back Norwich to Win @ 2.35/4


Stoke 2.245/4 v Swansea 3.9; The Draw 3.412/5

A top six finish isn't completely out of the question yet for Stoke, a finishing position I thought was worth chancing at 34.033/1 before a ball was kicked this season. Happily though, my 'shoe-in' bet at 2.68/5 for a Top 10 Finish now looks relatively safe with the Potters seven points ahead of 11th-placed West Brom.

Mark Hughes' men can be a tad inconsistent at times, evidenced by recent home defeats to Everton and Southampton mixed in with an excellent draw at Chelsea and four league wins over bottom-half sides.

Stoke host another bottom-half side on Saturday and although Swansea have improved in recent months to virtually secure their Premier League safety, I rate a home win a decent wager here.

The Potters have an excellent record against clubs in the bottom half of the table, winning five of their last six such games, and personnel wise they just look to have a much better squad than the Welsh outfit.

Francesco Guidolin's men defeated Arsenal at a time when the Gunners perhaps took their eye off the ball having Manchester United and Tottenham to play either side of that game, and recent single-goal victories over Norwich and Aston Villa hardly make out the Swans to be world beaters.

Recommended Bet
Back Stoke to Win @ 2.245/4


Sunderland 2.26/5 v West Brom 4.03/1; The Draw 3.412/5

I found this by far the hardest match to call, so given that Sunderland are relatively strong favourites I have to recommend a lay bet on them at the prices.

Do the Black Cats, with just one win to their name from their last nine outings, deserve to be 2.26/5 to come out on top against a West Brom side sitting 11th in the table? I'm not so sure they do, especially when you consider that they've failed to keep a single clean sheet in any of their last 17 games in all competitions.

The Baggies enjoyed a run of three league wins and a draw - including victories over Everton and Man Utd and a draw at top of the table Leicester - in the four games prior to a disappointing home defeat to Norwich, and I'm confident they can go to the Stadium of Light and avoid defeat.

True, that home loss to the Canaries has to be of concern, but they'll be keen to bounce back on Saturday afternoon and the pressure is all on the home side. Can Sam Allardyce's men handle it and get the win? Not for me they can't.

Recommended Bet
Lay Sunderland to Win @ 2.226/5


West Ham 2.0421/20 v Crystal Palace 4.1; The Draw 3.65

Recommended Bet
Back West Ham to Win @ 2.0421/20
(best bet)


***


*You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73


**For individual match previews of every single Premier League game visit our dedicated Premier League section here on Betting.Betfair.


Premier League 2015/16 Season P/L

Staked: 192 pts
Returned: 211.73 pts
P/L: +19.73 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

**2014/15 P/L = +35.3 pts from 215 staked (ROI = 16.42%)

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