Saturday Premier League Tipsheet: United to come unstuck at in-form Toffees

In-form strikers Steven Naismith and Romelu Lukaku can help fire Everton to another win over United
In-form strikers Steven Naismith and Romelu Lukaku can help fire Everton to another win over United

The Premier League returns after the international break with Chelsea, Man City, and Man Utd all in action amongst the six 3pm kick-offs, and here our man Mike Norman provides a tip sheet for Saturday afternoon's action...

"Everton have lost just one of the last seven league home games to United and they've won the last three without conceding..."

Back Everton to Win @ 3.412/5

Crystal Palace 2.01/1 v West Ham 4.216/5; The Draw 3.711/4

I doubt many people would have imagined that a top six clash more than two months into the new season would see Crystal Palace hosting the best away side in the division, West Ham. But that's exactly what we have here and the match outcome is pretty much impossible to call.

Do we make a judgement on Palace's consistent form - five wins with their only defeats coming against sides they were expected to lose to, Arsenal, Man City, and Tottenham - or do we stick with West Ham's ridiculously inconsistent form?

You won't need me to remind you that so far this season the Hammers have won at Arsenal, Liverpool, and Man City when huge outsiders, yet they've failed as favourites to beat the likes of Bournemouth, Leicester, Norwich, and Sunderland. I vowed last time never to back in the Match Odds again (until their form settles down) in games featuring Slaven Bilic's men so that's what I'm going to do.

But I do think there's some value in backing Over 2.5 Goals in this game, and that's purely an opinion based on how the season has gone so far. I just think that West Ham are so in and out at the moment that they are just as likely to score a few as they are to concede a few.

Recent results certainly back me up - 2-2 with Sunderland, 2-2 with Norwich, 3-4 with Bournemouth for example - and we can also point to the fact that Alan Pardew's men had four consecutive games at the start of the season that went over 2.5 goals.

The flip side of course is that the Eagles' last four league games all witnessed two goals or fewer so we're back to my earlier question - do we base a wager on Palace's consistency, or do we base it on West Ham's inconsistency. It's virtually a coin toss as the market suggests but in such instances I prefer to go for overs rather than unders, so I'll stick with that strategy here.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.981/1

Chelsea 1.351/3 v Aston Villa 11.010/1; The Draw 5.79/2

Surely now is the time for a response from Chelsea. After their 1-3 drubbing at home to Southampton and Jose Mourinho's bizarre subsequent post-match interview, a few high profile players and club owner Roman Abramovich have come out in support of the Blues boss.

Eden Hazard - who scored for Belgium in midweek - is the latest player to admit his club form has been poor and you sense that finally everyone at the club might be ready to start pulling in the right direction and realise that you actually have to perform on the pitch to defend a title, not just turn up and expect teams to roll over and admire you.

Aston Villa are a poor side in poor form and even allowing for some apprehension around Stamford Bridge on Saturday afternoon I still can't see Tim Sherwood's men getting a result.

Quite the opposite in fact. I'm fully expecting a backlash from Chelsea here and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the home side scored two or three without reply. Although Sherwood's men have scored freely on the road recent defeats without scoring at home to West Brom and Stoke doesn't bode well. I'm happy to back Chelsea -1 here, meaning they have to win by at least two clear goals to collect.

Recommended Bet
Back Chelsea -1 to Win @ 2.0421/20

Everton 3.412/5 v Man Utd 2.47/5; The Draw 3.55/2

Everton look a great price to inflict another defeat on Manchester United and I rate the Toffees my best bet of the day to collect all three points.

I've been quite critical of Manchester United so far this season but only in the way that they've performed on the pitch. So credit to Louis van Gaal's men for collecting the amount of points they have because apart from 45 minutes against Liverpool and 60 minutes against Southampton I don't think they've played well at all.

The Red Devils were torn apart at Arsenal just before the international break and a trip to Goodison Park - where they have a poor recent record - is a tough ask to bounce back.

The Toffees have started the season well and showed how good they can be when easily beating Chelsea last month - Ross Barkley and Romalu Lukaku have been particularly impressive and if those two are on form then United will have a difficult afternoon. The return of high class defender John Stones is also a big plus for the home side.

Everton have lost just one of the last seven league home games to United and they've won the last three without conceding, and Michael Lintorn's article telling us that Roberto Martinez's men have the best record in the Premier League in games following an international break is also good news for our recommended wager.

Recommended Bet
Back Everton to Win @ 3.412/5
(best bet)

Man City 1.251/4 v Bournemouth 15.014/1; The Draw 7.413/2

I'm expecting this game to be a lot tighter than the odds suggest although it's almost impossible to suggest that anything other than a home win is on the cards.

The loss of both Sergio Aguero and David Silva to injuries they sustained while on international duty is a huge kick in the teeth for Manuel Pellegrini, and while both shouldn't be absent for too long we all know that City are far less potent without both of those star players on the pitch.

So yes, they should still dominate Bournemouth in terms of possession and territorial advantage but the likes of Wilfried Bony and Jesus Navas just don't carry the same goalscoring threat as Aguero and Silva.

So step forward Kevin de Bruyne who I've said since the day he arrived at City has the potential to be one of the Premier League's star players. So he should be at a cost in excess of £50m, but I'm talking about a potential Player of the Year candidate, I rate him that highly and he certainly hasn't let anyone down since his arrival.

I'm expecting Eddie Howe's men to keep this game tight for long periods, but if Vincent Kompany is back for the Citizens then the Cherries will find it tough to get on the scoresheet. Under 2.5 Goals is definitely worth considering at around 2.6613/8 but my recommended bet for the second Man City game in a row is that man KDB to get on the scoresheet.

Recommended Bet
Back Kevin de Bruyne To Score (anytime) @ 2.6613/8

Southampton 1.845/6 v Leicester 4.94/1; The Draw 4.03/1

Southampton are starting to find their stride and they look to be the safest option against a Leicester side winning lots of admirers for the way they play.

But the Foxes' attacking style could be their undoing here. The Saints have won three of their last five and in each of those victories they scored three goals, so we know they can be rampant on their day. Against a Leicester side yet to keep a clean sheet they'll be confident of scoring two or three again, if not more.

Ronald Koeman's men play some excellent football on their day and if Leicester leave spaces at the back - as they normally do when they pour forward - then the likes of Sadio Mane, Dusan Tadic, and Graziano Pelle could have a field day here.

So it's all about how well Southampton defend for me. And as long as they can keep away from basic mistakes then I think they'll be fine.

It will be a fast and furious game and I fully expect the Saints to hit Leicester on the break a few times and record a comfortable win.

Recommended Bet
Back Southampton to Win @ 1.845/6

West Brom 2.111/10 v Sunderland 4.216/5; The Draw 3.55/2

A new manager in his first game in charge always throws a spanner in the works of a Match Odds selection and if this game wasn't hard enough to call as it was, it most certainly is a tough game to call now.

The Baggies sit just above the relegation zone having won just two of their opening eight league games, and while that is two more wins than Sunderland I would have just about made Tony Pulis' men the selection under normal circumstances.

But these aren't normal circumstances because 'new manager syndrome' could play a part. Sam Allardyce has always gotten off to a good start at his new clubs and he will be desperate to do the same with Sunderland - he can ill-afford to start slowly and extend the Black Cats' winless run.

So I think the Match Odds is a tough one, but catching my eye is the price of 2.47/5 about witnessing Over 2.5 Goals.

Every man and his dog had West Brom's last home game (against Everton) down as a low-scoring affair and it looked for all the world it would be a drab match with 0-0 written all over it after about 40 minutes. But as soon as the Baggies took the lead (thanks to a comedy of errors on Everton's part) the game opened up massively, eventually finishing 2-3, and I'm expecting something similar here.

There's no way Allardyce will instruct his men to sit back and take a 0-0, make no mistake he wants to start with a win. And with the onus being on the home side to go out and win the match against their 'inferior' opposition I can see this game surprising us, both in terms of entertainment and the number of goals scored.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.47/5

*You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

**For individual match previews of every single Premier League game visit our dedicated Premier League section here on Betting.Betfair.

Premier League 2015/16 Season P/L

Staked: 47 pts
Returned: 43.58 pts
P/L: -3.42 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

**2014/15 P/L = +35.3 pts from 215 staked (ROI = 16.42%)

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