Saturday Premier League Tipsheet: Swansea to heap more misery on toothless Newcastle

Mike fancies Francesco Guidolin's Swansea to heap more misery on Newcastle on Saturday afternoon
Mike fancies Francesco Guidolin's Swansea to heap more misery on Newcastle on Saturday afternoon

More profit for Mike Norman last week as he correctly predicted the 1-1 draw between Watford and Everton, and wins for Bournemouth and Crystal Palace. Here is our man's recommended bets for Saturday's four 3pm Premier League kick-offs...

"Francesco Guidolin's men - in huge danger of relegation themselves as recently as just last month - are one of the form sides in the Premier League having won four and drawn one of their last six games."

Back Swansea @ 3.412/5 to beat Newcastle

Everton 2.546/4 v Southampton 3.185/40; The Draw 3.55/2

Everton recorded their second consecutive draw when held 0-0 at Crystal Palace in midweek and I believe backing the draw here has every chance of paying out.

It's difficult to split the two sides, both can be very good on their day and both occasionally go through spells where they look like they can't buy a win. In other words, Everton and Southampton can be very inconsistent at times and the 10 point gap between the clubs is largely down to the fact that the Saints have been that little bit less inconsistent than the Toffees.

Ronald Koeman's men have struggled for goals on the road recently, averaging just 0.6 goals scored in their last 10 away games, recording five blanks in that time, so it's hard to see them going to Goodison Park and scoring two or three.

Roberto Martinez's men on the other hand have struggled in front of their own fans, losing four of their last five league games on Merseyside, and I'm sure given some of the recent criticism aimed at the Everton boss he'll be desperate to avoid defeat in this one.

Of course, there's every chance that either side could win this by a narrow margin, but given that I really can't split them, I believe backing the stalemate is the way to play.

Recommended Bet
Back The Draw @ 3.55/2

Man Utd 1.232/9 v Aston Villa 18.017/1; The Draw 7.06/1

Even a poor Manchester United side - and they are poor - ought to be too good for a dreadful Aston Villa side, but then you don't need me to tell you that, the Match Odds are a good indicator of exactly what is expected here - a comfortable home win.

United desperately need a resounding win too, not only to heap pressure on Man City as they chase their neighbours down for a top four finish, but to instil some much needed confidence for the final five Premier League games.

A stuttering win against Villa, or dare I say a failure to beat the Premier League's bottom club, will do nothing for confidence and only increase the pressure on manager Louis van Gaal. Having said that, I'd be amazed if the Dutchman is still at Old Trafford next season, regardless of Saturday's outcome.

Villa now know they'll be playing Championship football next season, and while some may argue that they can now play a relaxed game without much pressure, I would argue that they've been playing like that all season, and they've still been dreadful. They all seem relaxed, too relaxed, no intensity or fight whatsoever. They are easily one of the worst Premier League sides I've ever seen.

United have at least won their last four home league games, so they're doing something right at least, and they really should be good enough to record at least a two-goal winning margin against Villa.

Recommended Bet
Back Man Utd -1 to Win @ 1.75/7

Newcastle 2.3811/8 v Swansea 3.412/5; The Draw 3.412/5

You'll read and hear the words 'last chance saloon' many times over the coming weeks but the first shout of that tired old cliche from myself is for Newcastle given their dreadful away form.

At Southampton last Saturday the Magpies were awful, showing a distinct lack of fight and desire that matched their lack of ability, with the 3-1 outcome meaning they've now lost 10 consecutive away games. So either matters have to dramatically improve on the road, or Rafa Benitez's men need to make their four remaining games at St James' Park really count.

But then Newcastle have hardly been in great form in front of their own fans either, losing 1-3 to Bournemouth thanks to a dire display, before scrambling a late 1-1 draw with north-east rivals and fellow relegation candidate Sunderland.

So it's virtually impossible to put any faith in this Newcastle side right now, and I'm not going to. If they don't beat Swansea then I don't see how they can survive, so this almost is their last chance to start of run of good form.

The pressure might just tell, and given that Swansea have been in very good form of late I give the Welsh side an excellent chance of winning this.

Francesco Guidolin's men - in huge danger of relegation themselves as recently as just last month - are one of the form sides in the Premier League having won four and drawn one of their last six games. Last week they beat a Chelsea side that were undefeated under Guus Hiddink, and that sort of form makes them the clear favourites in my eyes to take all three points.

Recommended Bet
Back Swansea to Win @ 3.412/5
(best bet)

West Brom 2.56/4 v Watford 3.412/5; The Draw 3.259/4

Watford are safe, there's no doubt about that in my eyes. Even if they were to lose every single game from now on then Sunderland would need to win four of their last six to overhaul them. I really can't see that happening.

So while everyone associated with the Hornets will say that one more win is needed, I think deep down they all know that they are safe, and that pretty much renders this game a dead rubber.

West Brom are in no man's land in mid-table, very unlikely to climb into the top 10 either giving that Chelsea occupy 10th at present and probably won't go backwards from here, while Stoke in ninth are seven points ahead of the Baggies.

What I'm trying to say is that I really find games like this hard to call. There's no reason why they both shouldn't perform at their best but such games can usually throw up unexpected scorelines which are often impossible to predict.

I suppose Quique Flores' men still have one eye very much on their FA Cup semi-final with Crystal Palace, and their league form has suffered perhaps of a consequence (just two points taken from the last 15 available), while Tony Pulis' men are usually tough to beat at the Hawthorns (just one defeat in nine in all competitions).

A home win is therefore my tentative selection, but I certainly won't be getting involved heavily.

Recommended Bet
Back West Brom to Win @ 2.56/4


*You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

**For individual match previews of every single Premier League game visit our dedicated Premier League section here on Betting.Betfair.

Premier League 2015/16 Season P/L

Staked: 205 pts
Returned: 224.59 pts
P/L: +19.59 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

**2014/15 P/L = +35.3 pts from 215 staked (ROI = 16.42%)

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