Saturday Premier League Tipsheet: Back Stoke to return to winning ways

Mike Norman
11 February 2016

Will Mark Hughes' guide his Stoke side back to winning ways at Bournemouth?

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Another profitable weekend for Mike Norman last time with a short-price lay of Liverpool at home to Sunderland being a particular highlight. Will our man carry on in fine form as he previews Saturday's five 3pm kick-offs...

"But I just sense that Stoke will have been working extremely hard this week and I'm fully expecting that well organised tough to beat side to show its true colours again."

Back Stoke to @ 4.1 to beat Bournemouth

Bournemouth 2.1411/10 v Stoke 4.1; The Draw 3.55/2

It's hard to explain what's happened to Stoke, a well-organised and tough to beat side normally, they've now lost three league games on the spin all by 3-0 scorelines, and they haven't scored a single goal in any of their last four Premier League outings.

Add in a 1-0 FA Cup defeat at Crystal Palace and there's no denying that Mark Hughes' men are really struggling, perhaps derailed by that heartbreaking penalty shoot-out defeat to Liverpool in the Capital One Cup given that they've suffered three straight defeats since that night.

It's always hard to break a losing streak, though at least Stoke have recognised they're in a bad run of form with goalkeeper Jack Butland admitting after the Everton defeat that, "words need to be had" in the dressing room in an attempt to improve results.

Bournemouth lost to Arsenal on Sunday but before that they'd been in decent form, though the worry is that their victories over Norwich and Crystal Palace came against two teams completely out of form, and they also failed to beat struggling Sunderland. Eddie Howe's men have now won just one of their last four at Dean Court and Saturday's game with Stoke promises to be a really tight affair.

True, Stoke can also be categorised in that 'completely out of form' bracket and there's an argument to suggest that the Cherries are meeting these teams at the perfect time. But I just sense that Stoke will have been working extremely hard this week and I'm fully expecting that well organised tough to beat side to show its true colours again.

I really can''t have Bournemouth to win this game at just above evens, and in the hope that Stoke can demonstrate some of the excellent away form they were in just a few months ago, I'll take a chance on Hughes' men taking all three points.

Recommended Bet
Back Stoke to Win @ 4.1

Crystal Palace 2.3211/8 v Watford 3.65; The Draw 3.412/5

Like Stoke, Crystal Palace are on a poor run of league form, but similar to the above game they face a side that aren't exactly firing on all cylinders either.

The Eagles are now on a run of eight games without a win in the Premier League but they have recorded two excellent victories in the FA Cup during that sequence, and they've now scored in each of their last four games having gone five league matches without a goal prior to that. So perhaps Alan Pardew's men are about to turn the corner; last week's draw at Swansea offering encouragement also.

Watford deserve huge credit for the campaign they've put together so far. They never go on a long run without a win and they grind out some excellent draws too, like the 0-0 with Chelsea in their last home game.

But Quique Flores' men really struggle for goals when Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney aren't firing, and that has to be the concert going into this game. The Hornets have failed to score in four of their last five league matches, and another low-scoring affair looks on the cards here.

I don't like taking really short odds about Under 2.5 Goals as you only need a fluke goal, a sending off, or a moment of magic to spoil matters, but I expected it to be trading at around 1.68/13 here so I'm happy on this occasion to wager we'll see two goals or less.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75/7

Everton 1.584/7 v West Brom 7.26/1; The Draw 4.216/5

Everton are up to eighth after securing their first league win since September over a side that wasn't in the bottom three. Last week's 3-0 victory over Stoke followed hot on the heels of same scoreline wins over Carlisle in the FA Cup and Newcastle in the league, so The Toffees have seemingly found a bit of form.

The common factor in all those wins - and perhaps more significantly, three straight clean sheets - was the absence of John Stones.

That might be a tad harsh, but despite Stones' undoubted ability and potential there is no denying that the youngster has been struggling of late and his absence appears to have done Everton good, and hopefully Stones too.

Also struggling of late have been West Brom. The Baggies haven't won in five league games and have scored just the solitary goal in their last four, while in the FA Cup they needed a replay to beat Championship strugglers Bristol City and were taken to extra-time and penalties on Wednesday night before edging past League One side Peterborough.

There are sure to be a few tired legs in the Baggies camp and given Everton's current form it's hard to see Roberto Martinez's men not taking all three points. The odds are cramped however, so let's take a chance on the Toffees making it four wins on the spin without conceding.

Recommended Bet
Back Everton Win to Nil @ 2.68/5

Norwich 2.568/5 v West Ham 3.185/40; The Draw 3.45

Like most people it seems, I'm very surprised that West Ham aren't - if not necessarily favourites - a bit shorter in the Match Odds to win this game.

I highlighted Norwich's dreadful form last Saturday before making Aston Villa my best bet of the day to beat the Canaries, and when you're making hapless Villa your best bet then it tells you all you need to know about Alex Neil's men.

For the record, Norwich have now lost six on the spin in all competitions and have conceded an alarming 19 goals in the process. Ignore the freak 4-5 scoreline against Liverpool and Neil's men have scored just two goals this year in all other games, another concern.

Perhaps the odds have been slightly influenced by West Ham having to play 120 minutes of FA Cup football the other night, a game in which they picked up a few injuries too. But I'm happy to ignore that; if you can't be just as fresh and motivated for a league game fully four days after a Tuesday night game then you shouldn't be playing football is my opinion on that!

The Hammers sit sixth in the table but they have lost their last two away matches in the Premier League, one against struggling Newcastle, so perhaps that's another reason we can back them at a generous price here.

But you don't get to sixth in the table without having some bits of away form and we only have to go back to earlier in the season to find West Ham's, which if we're being honest, was stunning away form.

But as much as anything, this is about Norwich for me, and their very poor form means we simply have to take them on with Slaven Bilic's buoyant men.

Recommended Bet
Back West Ham to Win @ 3.185/40

Swansea 3.39/4 v Southampton 2.56/4; The Draw 3.39/4

Even when Southampton were going through a sticky patch of form you felt that they'd turn it around sooner rather than later, and that's exactly what they've done.

Ronald Koeman's men have won four of their last five (drew the other) and they haven't conceded a single goal during that time (hence why Under 2.5 Goals is so short here, more on that later).

Saints are now up to seventh in the table but they face a Swansea side that have also found a bit of form of late, and I believe we're in for a very close match here.

The Swans are unbeaten in four under new boss Francesco Guidolin, giving them a bit of breathing space at the bottom of the table, and with a new found belief and a bit of momentum I can see them giving Southampton a good game on Saturday.

I honestly can't call the outcome but I believe Over 2.5 Goals is massively over-priced here. It's just a hunch, as recent games certainly suggest a low-scoring affair is on the cards, but when two sides playing with confidence go head-to-head there's always a chance we'll see a few goals and that's what I'm prepared to wager on here.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.546/4

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*You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

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