Crystal Palace 2.68/5 v Southampton 3.02/1; The Draw 3.55/2
I was happy to forgive some of Southampton's recent reversals and made them a strong bet to beat hapless Aston Villa last Saturday, and although the Saints dominated much of the game (63% possession, 23 shots) they could manage only a draw, and quite easily could have ended up losing such was their eagerness to try and pinch all three points once they'd equalised.
So the worry is that confidence might just be starting to ebb away amongst Ronald Koeman's men - it's very easy to fall into a poor run of form but it can be extremely difficult to play your way out of it.
Southampton have slipped to 12th in the table after taking just one point from the last nine available, and sandwiched between those league games was a shuddering 1-6 home defeat in the Capital One Cup.
But dare we give the Saints one more chance?
The reason I ask that is because Southampton's away from isn't at all bad. In fact Koeman's men have lost just once on the road domestically all season, and that was in their last away game at Man City, so no disgrace there. Prior to that they'd won at Chelsea and drew at Liverpool, before beating struggling Sunderland at the Stadium of Light.
Add in the fact that Crystal Palace have won just one of their last four home league games, and that this season's Premier League is witnessing a record high number of away wins, then I'm certainly in no rush to dismiss the Saints in this fixture.
Admittedly Palace's last home game was a resounding 5-1 victory over Newcastle, but before that they lost at home to Sunderland, drew 0-0 with Manchester United, and lost again when hosting West Ham, so there's definitely some vulnerability attached to Alan Pardew's men at Selhurst Park.
All that said, on current form it's difficult to put up Southampton as a confident selection to win, even though they have a fantastic recent record at the home of the Eagles, winning their last three visits to Selhurst Park and conceding just one goal in the process.
Taking slightly less odds about an away win in the Draw No Bet market makes sense, meaning we'll profit handsomely if Southampton win, but our stake will be returned should the match end all square.
Back Southampton Draw No Bet @ 5/4 (Sportsbook)
Man City 1.341/3 v Swansea 11.010/1; The Draw 6.25/1
The problem we have when assessing Man City currently is that we just don't know what team is going to turn up; and we're not just talking good or bad City, but we're also talking about 'team' as in the starting XI.
Vincent Kompany seems to be just one game away from a return every week, the latest news is that he'll miss... you guessed it... just one more game! And when Sergio Aguero was taken off 'as a precaution' against Southampton a few weeks ago his ankle injury wasn't thought to be serious. He's missed Man City's next three games!
Without Kompany, City look extremely vulnerable at the back. They look like a side that can be 'got at' quite easily when faced against a decent team in a bit of form (Liverpool, Stoke, and for 45 minutes against Borussia Monchengladbach for example), but when they take the bull by the horns and just play to their strengths - like they did in the second half in midweek - they can be a devastating unit.
So with Aguero hopefully back in the side, David Silva back to full fitness, and Kevin de Bruyne and Raheem Sterling amongst the goals recently, you have to fear for a Swansea side devoid of any confidence.
The manager-less Swans aren't a 'decent team in a bit of form' at present, they are a team completely out of form - just one win in 11 - staring down the barrel of a long relegation fight.
True, Swansea have some flair and pacey players in their side who might be able to trouble a Man City defence without Kompany, but a more likely outcome is that the home side score three or four and win comfortably. That's exactly how I'll be wagering on this one.
Back Man City -1 to Win @ 2.01/1
Sunderland 2.962/1 v Watford 2.767/4; The Draw 3.39/4
I was slightly surprised last weekend when Watford weren't odds-on to beat Norwich, and making them a confident selection paid dividends when they ran out comfortable 2-0 winners. And I'm a little surprised that the Hornets aren't a tad shorter here too.
Okay, odds of around 2.767/4 for newly-promoted Watford to win a Premier League game away from home might already be short enough for some, but not for me.
And the main reason I like Quique Flores' side in this fixture is simply down to one main factor - Watford have guaranteed goals in them. Consider also their impressive away record and the Hornets are once again a confident choice to win.
Troy Deeney and strike partner Odion Ighalo made it nine goals between them in their last five games with one each against the Canaries last week, while away from home the Hornets have already won at Newcastle, Stoke, and Aston Villa - in fact their only defeat away from home since August was by a single-goal margin at top-of-the-table Leicester.
Sunderland recorded back-to-back wins against Crystal Palace and Stoke the week before last, but one of those wins was a smash and grab, while the other was helped massively when the opposition had their best defender dismissed.
Sam Allardyce's men enjoyed just 27% in last Saturday's defeat at depleted Arsenal, and likely to be without Jermain Defoe again this weekend I expect them to suffer another reversal.
Back Watford to Win @ 2.767/4
West Ham 2.6213/8 v Stoke 3.185/40; The Draw 3.412/5
I really like Stoke here, and if I'm being honest I'm very surprised they're not a similar price to West Ham. Purely on that basis, Mark Hughes' men are my best bet of the day.
On current form alone we can make a great case for the Potters - 10 points taken from the last 15 available compared to just two points in the same period for West Ham - but it's Stoke's away form that really stands out.
Hughes' men went a very impressive five games in all competitions without conceding a single goal, winning four of those matches, while they were 82 minutes into their sixth away game without conceding until Sunderland found the back of the net in a 2-0 win - thanks in large to Stoke having inspirational defender Ryan Shawcross sent off.
Since that reversal in the north-east the Potters have got their act together at the Britannia Stadium too, winning back-to-back games without conceding, the latter victory coming in impressive fashion against Man City last weekend.
West Ham on the other hand haven't won in five outings, most of their best form has come away from home, and they've been dealt some huge blows by losing Manuel Lanzini, Diafra Sakho, and Dimitri Payet to long-term injuries. That's a big percentage of their assists/goals this season now missing from Slaven Bilic's side.
In fact the more I analyse this game the more surprised I am that Stoke aren't actually favourites to win. Home advantage is seemingly having a big influence in these Match Odds markets, but in a season witnessing an unusually high amount of away wins then the Potters simply have to be he call at the prices.
Back Stoke to Win @ 3.185/40 (best bet)
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