Saturday Premier League Tipsheet: Back Goals at Vicarage Road

Will Jermain Defoe help Sunderland to their first league win of the season?
Will Jermain Defoe help Sunderland to their first league win of the season?

We have just four Premier League matches kicking-off at the traditional time of 3pm on Saturday afternoon, and here with his recommended bets on each is Mike Norman...


"I believe there's a great chance of both sides getting amongst the goals in this encounter and 2.0811/10 about witnessing the net bulge at least three times really appeals."

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0811/10 in Watford v Bournemouth

Hull 7.87/1 v Chelsea 1.51/2; The Draw 4.67/2

One of the hardest parts of football betting, any betting in fact, is deciding what to do when the selection you fancy to win is too short to back. You're instantly presented with a dilemma.

Do you back what you think will win at a shorter price than you'd like, do you look for an alternative in the same market, or do you just forget about having a bet altogether and move on? It's a tough one, and I dare say we've all been in this position and done each of the three options at some stage.

The reason I mention this of course is because I believe Chelsea will bounce back from last Saturday's hugely disappointing display at Arsenal and win this game, but I have to admit to being surprised at their odds of 1.51/2 in the Match Odds market.

How can you back a team that was totally outplayed last week, that hasn't won any of their last three leagues games, and are playing away from home, at 1.51/2?

You can't is the simple answer, even if the opposition is a Hull side that were also thrashed seven days ago.

As I've already said, Chelsea should win, the odds tell you that, but there has been enough evidence in Hull's early season form to suggest that they can cause Antonio Conte's men some problems on Saturday afternoon. Liverpool are in blistering form at present so it's easy to forgive the Tigers' mauling at Anfield. Prior to that they'd taken seven points from their first five games and only lost to Manchester United with virtually the last kick of the game.

But I just can't get away from how poor Chelsea have been recently and the fact that I really want to take them on at their current odds. So I will.

Recommended Bet
Lay Chelsea to Win @ 1.511/2


Sunderland 2.56/4 v West Brom 3.39/4; The Draw 3.39/4

I'm probably the only person, but I'm still of the opinion that Sunderland aren't a bad side. They're certainly not the worst team in the division that's for sure, and I'm confident that they're not amongst the worst three.

Admittedly they capitulated against Everton once the Toffees got their noses in front recently but they were very much in the game up until the point Romelu Lukaku opened the scoring. And last week at home they led 2-0 and looked certain to secure all three points before caving in once again.

Perhaps it's just a confidence issue, or even just a lack of concentration - how else can you explain Christian Benteke being left un-marked in the last seconds of a game to nod home a winner - but I believe the Black Cats will start winning much sooner rather than later, hopefully starting this weekend.

West Brom are the visitors to the Stadium of Light on Saturday afternoon and they aren't exactly my favourite team after I opposed them against West Ham a fortnight ago, only to see them go 4-0 up in no time at all. Four goals in one hour! The Baggies haven't scored that many since Jeff Astle was terrorising defences.

Tony Pulis' men can often be well organised and tough to break down, but generally they're very much a low scoring side and I can't see them going goal crazy at Sunderland.

David Moyes knows this is a great opportunity to stop the rot, and he may set his side up defensively with an emphasis on not conceding. But with Jermain Defoe in such fine form I fancy they'll get a goal at the other end and that might just be enough to take the points.

Recommended Bet
Back Sunderland to Win @ 2.56/4


Watford 2.47/5 v Bournemouth 3.412/5; The Draw 3.412/5

I was very surprised with Watford's performance at Burnley on Monday night and feel sure that they'll be back on their 'A' game this weekend.

Maybe a bit of complacency crept it, after all, when you've just scored four at West Ham and comfortably beat Manchester United the Hornets must have been on a real high and fully confident of beating one of the relegation favourites.

But it just didn't happen on the night and I'm happy to ignore that result and performance.

So what I'm suggesting is that if Walter Mazzarri's men can bounce back then that will inevitably mean Watford getting amongst the goals. You have to go back to the beginning of March to find the last time Watford failed to score at Vicarage Road, and their six games in all competitions prior to the Burnley defeat all witnessed at least three goals being scored.

As I repeatedly say, with Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo in attack this side is always capable of getting on the scoresheet.

Bournemouth defended superbly against Everton last Saturday to record their second consecutive 1-0 home win, but away from home their performances have been like chalk and cheese. They were thrashed 4-0 at Man City, were totally outplayed at Crystal Palace but somehow clung on for a 1-1 draw, and they even lost to West Ham at the London Stadium - and every team wins there apart from West Ham!

Based on what I've said Watford make some appeal in the Match Odds market at 2.47/5 but what I like about Bournemouth if they go a goal behind is that they usually never give up and Eddie Howe isn't scared to change things up.

I believe there's a great chance of both sides getting amongst the goals in this encounter and 2.0811/10 about witnessing the net bulge at least three times really appeals.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0811/10
(best bet)


West Ham 2.26/5 v Middlesbrough 3.7511/4; The Draw 3.55/2

There's a theme to Saturday's 3pm kick-offs - nearly all of the teams involved are on recovery missions, trying to end a poor run of form.

Six of the eight sides lost last week, while West Brom drew and only Bournemouth recorded a win. Both West Ham and Middlesbrough are on losing runs - the Hammers four and Boro three. Something has to give here.

It's not a match I'd normally get involved in for the simple fact that I'm a Middlesbrough fan, and as we all know, if you back your own team it's usually a heart ruling the head wager, and no-one wants to back the team they support to lose.

But I just can't get away from how poor West Ham have been, and how uncomfortable they look playing at the London Stadium. Slaven Bilic's men have conceded seven times in back-to-back league defeats in front of their own fans, they struggled to see of League Two side Accrington in the EFL Cup, and they've also lost at home in the Europa League.

The Hammers look all at sea defensively which convinces me that Boro can get on the scoresheet. I've always felt Aitor Karanka's men could be a good counter-attacking side away from home and they proved that at Sunderland before performing well for half an hour at Everton.

The problem however is that Middlesbrough can't stop conceding goals either, and that's a big surprise for the club that had the best defensive record in the whole of England last season. They've really found this step up in level tough and not keeping clean sheets is putting huge pressure on the attackers to get amongst the goals.

I can see both sides scoring in this game, but ultimately I think both managers will be pleased if they can avoid defeat and end their losing runs. So for that reason I'll have a small play on the draw.

Recommended Bet
Back The Draw @ 3.55/2


***


You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73


For individual match previews of every single Premier League game visit our dedicated Premier League section here on Betting.Betfair.


Premier League 2016/17 Season P/L

Staked: 27 pts
Returned: 20.90 pts
P/L: -6.10 pts

*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet

- 2014/15 P/L = +35.30 pts from 215 pts staked
- 2015/16 P/L = +14.99 pts from 234 pts staked

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