Saturday Football Tips: Best bets for Premier League, Championship and more

Lens v Lille: Ferocious Friday night derby

Lens vs Lille (5th vs 1st)
Fri, 20:00 BST
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video

This is one of France's biggest derbies but there's a lot more than local pride at stake this time.

Lens are chasing a Europa League place while league leaders Lille are 2.447/5 for the title with a one-point advantage over nearest challengers PSG 1.748/11.

Key Stat: Lille are W12-D4-L1 away from home for the season and W10-D1-L0 from their last 11 away games.

James Eastham says: "Every ball will be fiercely contested but Lille should have the edge and are a good bet to collect the three points. Christophe Galtier's title challengers have been magnificent on the road - indeed, over the past four months, they have played better football away from home than in their own stadium.

"Their defensive solidity has been remarkable - they've kept eight clean sheets in those 11 away matches - and they have almost always had the attacking quality to nick the goals they need at some point.

"Lens will be pumped up but Lille have shown over a number of months they know how to win games like this, making the visitors the smart selection."

James' bet: Back Lille to win at Lens @ 2.0421/20

Leeds v Tottenham: Goals not a given at Elland Road

Leeds v Tottenham
Saturday May 8, 12:30
BT Sport

Tottenham are outsiders at 9.417/2 for a top four finish and at 1.774/5 bettors think top six the more realistic target. Opponents Leeds, meanwhile, would love to finish in the top 10 and are around even money to do so in their first season back in the big time. So there's plenty at stake at Elland Road on Saturday lunchtime.

Key Stat: Leeds are looking for their first Premier League win over Tottenham since 2001 with the Whites beaten 3-0 in the duos reverse fixture in January.

Mark O'Haire says: "Eight of Leeds' last 13 Premier League fixtures have featured Under 2.5 Goals 2.427/5 and opposing goals appeals considering the high prices offered. In those aforementioned 13 fixtures, the average Expected Goals (xG) output was 2.55, suggesting the Whites matches haven't been quite as chaotic as they were earlier on in the campaign.

"Under 2.5 Goals has paid out in 10 of Leeds' 17 Elland Road outings since promotion, including six of nine when welcoming top-half opposition.

"If Tottenham opt to field a similar set-up, an entertaining game could certainly unfold, and with 10 of Spurs' last 12 league dates crossing the Over 2.5 Goals 1.635/8 whitewash, it's easy to see why the market anticipates a goal-filled game. But taking the Under 3 Goals line at 1.834/5 gives us a degree of protection with exactly three goals returning a push.

"This wager has paid out in all five of Leeds' home matches with Big Six opposition, and has lost on only three occasions at Elland Road all season."

Mark's bet: Back Under 3 Goals at 1.834/5

Derby v Sheffield Wednesday: Slow-burner for Survival Saturday

Derby v Sheffield Wednesday
Saturday May 8, 12:30
Sky Sports

Relegation battles weren't something Wayne Rooney experienced as a player but he's right in the midst of one in his first managerial job. Only victory will assure his Derby County team's survival while their opponents Sheffield Wednesday's fate is now out of their hands with the Owls requiring a victory at Pride Park to stand any chance of staying up. Ahuge match to get Saturday started.

Key Stat: Derby have lost six matches in a row.

Mark O'Haire says: "Derby have delivered three clean sheets in 19 league outings since the end of the January with 11 of those tussles producing Over 2.5 Goals 2.1011/10 profit. However, the hosts have found goalscoring a particular problem in 2020/21, managing a measly 33 goals - a divisional-low - and scoring multiple goals just twice in their past 14 fixtures.

"Sheffield Wednesday's wretched goals return on the road - averaging 0.68 goals per-game - has proven a major concern for Owls supporters, and the visitors arrive here having plundered multiple goals in just three of their past 17 encounters across all venues, highlighting their struggles in the final-third.

"Considering the bleak attacking efforts from both sides, plus the magnitude of the match, it's difficult to foresee an open and entertaining clash. With Championship survival on the line, a tight and cagey contest looks most likely."

Mark's bet: Back Half With Most Goals: Second Half at 2.1011/10

Spezia v Napoli: Gattuso's men to stay in top four hunt

Spezia v Napoli
Saturday, 14:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video

The race to finish in Italy's top four is very tight indeed. With Atalanta, Juventus and AC Milan all on 69 points and fifth-placed Napoli on 67. Juve play Milan on Sunday so somebody will be dropping points this weekend. All the more important then that Napoli take maximum points on their trip to relegation-threatened Spezia on Saturday.

Key Stat: Napoli have won seven of their last 10 matches in Serie A (D2L1)

Tom Victor says: "Napoli lost ground on their rivals last week after failing to take their chances against Cagliari, but can keep up the pressure on Atalanta, Juventus and Milan by taking the points at Alberto Picco."

"Spezia are by no means safe, sitting just three points ahead of the bottom three, but Infogol's model still expects the visitors to claim victory given Vincenzo Italiano's side's struggles at home."

Tom's bet: Back the 1-2 @ 8.007/1

Barcelona v Atletico Madrid: Hosts to win pivotal top-of-the-table clash

Barcelona v Atlético Madrid
Saturday, 15:15
Watch on Betfair Live Video

At the time of writing Barcelona are 2.526/4 favourites to win La Liga even though Ronald Koeman's men are two points behind leaders Atleti 2.915/8 in what is - mathematically, at least - still a four way battle with Real Madrid 3.814/5 and Sevilla 65.064/1 who play each other on Sunday.

Key Stat: Barcelona have kept just one clean sheet in their last six matches.

Both of the sides in action at Camp Nou on Saturday know the title could end up in their hands, with Atléti holding a two point lead over their hosts.

Ronald Koeman's side are averaging 2.43 xGF at home this season, with an actual goals tally to match, and Infogol gives them a 57% chance of securing a victory which would see them go top for the first time this season - at least until Real Madrid play on Sunday.

Tom's bet: Back the 2-1 @ 8.6015/2

Manchester City v Chelsea: Back visitors to temporarily topple champions-elect

Man City v Chelsea
17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Sky Sports Main Event

Who would have thought, when the schedule was drawn up, that this would be a rehearsal for the Champions League final? Thomas Tuchel's men beat Guardiola's table toppers 1-0 in last month's FA Cup semi-final. City can wrap up the Premier League title if they win this.

Key Stat: None of the last 11 Premier League meetings between Manchester City and Chelsea have finished level, with the Citizens winning seven to Chelsea's four.

Stephen Tudor says: "In the FA Cup semi, that took place a matter of days after both teams competed in a Champions League quarter-final, Tuchel made just two changes while Guardiola made eight.

"If the same heavy rotation happens here in similar circumstances then there are concerns for the home side because their peripheral talent have been under-performing of late. Raheem Sterling is struggling to make an impact - though he has stepped things up in the past couple of weeks - while Gabby Jesus continues to have an unhealthy relationship with the offside flag.

"Chelsea need to win here. A Champions League spot is at stake. City, by comparison, are in no urgent rush to dot the Is and cross the Ts on their title success and should key personnel be fatigued from their continental endeavours they might well be rested.

"That ultimately will be the difference in this contest that can be deemed a rehearsal for greater, bigger clashes to come."

Stephen's bet: Use Bet Builder to combine a Chelsea win and under 2.5 goals at 8.207/1