The Big Saturday Multiple: Hamburg to rise to the occasion

Can Hamburg turn the clock back to 1983 for one season saving performance?
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It's that time of the weekend where Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

- Back Hamburg @ 2.5 (6/4)
- Back Alaves @ 3.5 (5/2)
- Back Over 2.5 Goals in Marseille v Bastia @ 1.5 (1/2)
- Back Under 2.5 Goals in Bradford v Millwall @ 1.57 (4/7)

The Multiple pays approximately 20.61 (20/1)

Bet 1: Hamburg (HOME) @ 2.5 (6/4)

We begin in the Bundesliga for a huge match at Volksparkstadion.

It's all about avoiding the relegation play-off place in the Bundesliga - a spot which Hamburg currently occupy. They can end their season in safety with a victory over Wolfsburg though - a result which would probably see the Wolves replace them in that position.

The hosts haven't won any of their last five outings, but three of them have been on the road. At home it's seven victories from their last 10 matches and just the one defeat.

Markus Gisdol's side will be roared on by the home support and while the visitors won their latest away fixture - their record on their travels isn't exactly great. They had lost four of their previous seven, and they could well be caught between two stools as they know that they only have to avoid defeat to be safe.

Bet 2: Alaves (AWAY) @ 3.5 (5/2)

To Spain now for our away victory as Alaves seem a bit overpriced to win at Leganes.

These two clubs were both promoted from the second tier last season and while they have both retained their La Liga status for next year, it's Alaves who have performed much better.

The visitors are up in ninth place and they come into the game on a run of six unbeaten - their last three of which were all victories. They beat Celta Vigo 3-1 last time out and prior to that it was a 1-0 win over Athletic Club and an away success at Real Betis - by four goals to one.

Mauricio Pellegrino's side have already taken maximum points away from home on seven occasions in this campaign and that includes a wins at Barcelona and Villarreal.

Leganes have narrowly avoided relegation and although they have lost just one of their last four, I expect a drop off in performance in their final game. They aren't in the same class as Alaves and while an away win is far from guaranteed, it's definitely a value selection.

Bet 3: Marseille v Bastia (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.5 (1/2)

It's all about goals at Stade Vélodrome for Marseille's final match of the season against Bastia.

The hosts have been racking them up in front of their own fans and half a dozen of their last nine there have seen this selection land. They will be aiming to end their campaign in style and they face a Bastia team who were thrashed 5-0 at PSG in their latest away fixture.

The visitors have plenty to play for as they are in the relegation places. An unlikely victory would probably see them safe - or at least up into the relegation play-off place - but a draw would see them needing Lorient lost at home to Bordeaux.

Given that, Rui Almeida's men surely have to go for it and that could well leave them exposed at the back. They have already conceded five goals on three occasions in away matches this term and six of their last eight on their travels have all gone over 2.5.

Bet 4: Bradford v Millwall (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.57 (4/7)

It's north versus south at Wembley in the League One Play-off final and while I'm not sure who will triumph, I definitely think that it will be a low-scoring affair.

Bradford finished fifth in the table but they came second when it came to goals conceded. They kept two clean sheets in the play-off semi against Fleetwood and during the regular campaign their matches averaged 2.28 goals each time, as 28 of their 46 ended with two goals or fewer scored.

Millwall had a higher average at the 2.67 mark but they still had 21 games go under 2.5 and five of their last six meetings with Bradford all followed suit.

With so much at stake I imagine we'll get a pretty cagey opening and Stuart McCall's side definitely know how to defend. It's just a fixture that screams unders.

Recommended Multiple

Back Hamburg @ 2.5 (6/4)
Back Alaves @ 3.5 (5/2)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Marseille v Bastia @ 1.5 (1/2)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Bradford v Millwall @ 1.57 (4/7)
The Multiple pays approximately 20.61 (20/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2017 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 19pts
Returned: 12.97pts
P/L: -6.03pts

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