Against All Odds: Goals to flow in Sao Paulo

Paul Robinson
18 October 2014

Bahia should get on the scoresheet tonight

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Paul Robinson thinks that Betfair Live Video viewers are in for a treat tonight as Sao Paulo against Bahia is set to be high-scoring.

"Exactly half have finished with three or more, including two of their last three on home soil."

Lay Under 2.5 goals in Sao Paulo v Bahia @ 1.9720/21

Sao Paulo v Bahia
Saturday October 18, 22:30 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video

Sao Paulo are enjoying a decent campaign as they are third in the league and through to the last eight of the Copa Sudamericana. Although leaders, Cruzeiro, are probably too far ahead to catch, their aim will be to finish in the top three and qualify for next year's Copa Libertadores.

It's the goal-side of things we're interested in here and with 45 scored and 34 conceded, their fixtures this term are averaging 2.82 goals each time - the second highest in the entire division. Exactly half have finished with three or more, including two of their last three on home soil. It is also worth noting that their midweek Copa Sudamericana fixture finished 3-2 to Muricy Ramalho's men.

Bahia are battling relegation as with just 10 games to go, they are in 17th place with 30 points. It's a very tight league though as only five points covers the bottom nine, but the worrying thing is that they've lost their last two matches.

As far as the goals go, Gilson Kleina's side don't have as good statistics as Sao Paulo as their fixtures are only averaging 1.79 goals per 90 minutes. Three of their last five on the road have gone over 2.5 though and they only failed to score once during that period.

The hosts can be quite unpredictable and I quite fancy Bahia to score. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.9720/21 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Sao Paulo v Bahia @ 1.9720/21

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 280 pts
Returned: 291.75 pts
P/L: + 11.75 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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