The goals are set to flow in Serie A this evening according to Paul Robinson as he thinks that the Genoa derby will be a high-scoring affair.
"Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have now scored 35 goals this campaign – only one less than Roma – and they would be higher than their current position of sixth if they could defend just a bit better."
Sampdoria v Genoa
Saturday February 21, 19:45 GMT
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video
A 2-0 defeat to Inter in the Coppa Italia didn't seem too much of a setback at the time but the then in-form, Sampdoria, went on to pick up just two points from a possible 12 in the league. That has caused them to drop to seventh and while they are still in the mix for the European places, their recent results have to be cause for concern given that they didn't come against sides who are above them in the table.
Siniša Mihajlović's men did at least to score in each of those matches but they haven't kept a clean sheet for over a month now. Their overall goal-stats this term make promising reading for this selection as their fixtures are averaging 2.39 goals each time, with two of their last three rewarding under 2.5 layers.
The main reason for this bet is the stats of their opponents though. Genoa are flying at the moment as they come into this game having won their last two. A 1-0 win away at Lazio was hugely impressive and they followed that up with a 5-2 demolition of Hellas Verona on Sunday.
Gian Piero Gasperini's side have now scored 35 goals this campaign - only one less than Roma - and they would be higher than their current position of sixth if they could defend just a bit better. A total of 28 goals against leaves their matches averaging 2.74 goals per 90 minutes, with over half featuring at least three being scored.
Those figures shoot up if we concentrate on their results away from home as eight of their 11 on the road have gone over 2.5 goals, giving an average of 2.91 goals each time. Obviously I appreciate that this match is being played on their own ground, but it is still technically an away fixture and the quoted numbers are relevant.
I can definitely see both teams scoring in this one and I quite fancy there to be more. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.794/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Sampdoria v Genoa @ 1.794/5
2015 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 50 pts
Returned: 42.13 pts
P/L: - 7.87 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)