Against All Odds: Roma's Champions League aspirations to take another hit

There's trouble in paradise between Totti and his beloved Roma
There's trouble in paradise between Totti and his beloved Roma

Paul Robinson is treating us to a warm spring's evening in Rome today as he thinks that Udinese can avoid defeat at Stadio Olimpico.

"Also, quite remarkably, the 2001 Serie A champions have won just two of their last 10 fixtures in front of their own fans."

Lay Roma v Udinese @ 1.341/3

Roma v Udinese
Sunday May 17, 19:45 BST
Live on BT Sport 1

It's been a disappointing campaign for Roma as while they can still finish second in Serie A, they are 19 points adrift of Juventus and exited the Champions League at the group stage.

Rudi García's side could really do with a win tonight as that would lift them ahead of Lazio with just two games to go. The difference between second and third is huge as the runners-up spot would see them avoid the Champions League qualifiers next term.

Udinese on the other hand don't really need to win today at all, in fact, they don't even need to draw. The White-blacks can't be relegated and they can't qualify for Europe. They are currently in 14th place but with three points spreading 11th to 16th, there is still a little something to play for.

We also have to consider recent form and AS Roma were beaten by the mediocre AC Milan last week. Also, quite remarkably, the 2001 Serie A champions have won just two of their last 10 fixtures in front of their own fans.

Andrea Stramaccioni's men were also beaten last weekend as they fell to a very disappointing home defeat to Sampdoria. The manager will no doubt demand a reaction from his players and it's worth remembering that Udinese have picked up positive results in four of their last five on the road.

With just seven losses from 17 away from Stadio Friuli for Udinese this season, I am not overly swayed by Roma's need to win this evening. That's why, with their price ridiculously short at around the 1.341/3 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Roma v Udinese @ 1.341/3

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 134 pts
Returned: 106.8 pts
P/L: - 27.20 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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