The action comes from Portugal this evening as Paul Robinson thinks that Porto will fail to justify their odds-on quote at Rio Ave.
"Beaten finalists in this last year, ‘Big River’ have lost just twice on home soil this season and they come into the game unbeaten in nine in Vila do Conde, without conceding a goal in any of their last seven."
Rio Ave v Porto
Tuesday December 30, 19:15 GMT
This is a Taca da Liga fixture which is the Portuguese version of the League Cup. We are at the second group stage phase of the competition where the victors of the four groups then face off in the semi-finals.
Rio Ave have already come through one round so far and while they needed penalties to knock out, Chaves, their league form hasn't been too bad. Pedro Martins' side have drawn their last three Primeira Liga matches, keeping a clean sheet in all three.
A recent 5-0 defeat at tonight's opponents is an obvious blot on their copybook but that was away from home and they capitulated in the second half after going in at the break on level terms.
Beaten finalists in this last year, 'Big River' have lost just twice on home soil this season and they come into the game unbeaten in nine in Vila do Conde, without conceding a goal in any of their last seven.
We don't need to say much about Porto as it is obvious that they are a class above Rio Ave. It is worth noting though that they already trail Benfica by six points in the league, and with a trip to Gil Vicente coming up on Saturday, their focus may be elsewhere.
Porto are the worthy favourites, make no mistake. I don't see them as being as nailed on as the odds suggest though, so with their price trading at around the 1.618/13 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Lay Porto v Rio Ave @ 1.618/13
2014 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 348 pts
Returned: 366.34 pts
P/L: + 18.34 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)