Paul Robinson makes a rare trip to Colombia tonight as he thinks the clash between Quindio and Cucuta Deportivo will be very low-scoring.
"Alberto Suárez’s side had a whopping 50% finish with one goal or less and they have kept four clean sheets in their last five on the road."
Quindio v Cucuta Deportivo
Tuesday November 4, 00:30 GMT
Deportes Quinido qualified for the semi-final stages of the Primera B Clausura thanks to a third place finish in the regular league season. They won exactly half of their matches and while they only finished one point behind the leaders, the division is that tight that they only made the top eight by three points.
It's the goal-side of things we're focusing on here though and with 28 scored and 17 conceded, their matches have averaged 2.5 goals each time. While that sounds quite high for this type of bet, it is worth noting that six of their 18 ended with one goal or fewer being scored and Miguel Augusto Prince's men will be desperate to keep it tight at the back tonight and avoid defeat.
Cucuta Deportivo claimed a sixth placed finish, and like their opponents, they too won exactly half of their fixtures. I can't imagine that they will earn promotion, but they have performed with credit all campaign and actually come into this game on the back of a five match unbeaten streak.
Four of those five outings would have rewarded over 1.5 goal layers and with 21 scored and 15 conceded, their matches are only averaging two goals per 90 minutes. Alberto Suárez's side had a whopping 50% finish with one goal or less and they have kept four clean sheets in their last five on the road.
This should be a relatively tight affair and I can see it ending 0-0 or 1-0. That's why, with over 1.5 goals trading at around the 1.454/9 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Lay Over 1.5 goals in Quindio v Cucuta Deportivo @ 1.454/9
2014 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 295 pts
Returned: 306.49 pts
P/L: + 11.49 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)