Big price worth pursuing in the overs market
Pro Vercelli v Virtus Entella
Tuesday 19 March, 19:30
It wasn't quite the Bavarian borefest we anticipated, but Greuther Furth's 2-0 win at Jahn Regensburg last night kept us under the 2.5 goals line, and gave us an odds-against winner to kick off the week.
We're making a short hop to Italy, because there's a top-of-the-table clash in store in the third-tier Serie C, as the leaders Virtus Entella make the journey to fourth-placed Pro Vercelli.
Pro Vercelli were relegated from Serie B last season, continuing their recent yo-yo status between the second and third divisions. It's a far cry from the successes of the early 20th century, a time that saw Pro Vercelli named as Italian champions seven times between 1908 and 1922. Pro Vercelli are fourth in the Serie C standings
Virtus Entella has only existed in its current form since 2010, having been initially refounded in 2002. They are top of the table at present, but have had a recent wobble, especially on the road.
Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 2.8815/8, and whenever I see a price that big in that market, it makes sense to build a case for that outcome if possible. My suspicion is that the price has been inflated by the league leaders' recent troubles on the road (they have drawn a blank in their last three away games), but there are reasons to back overs here.
Firstly, the two teams played the reverse fixture last month and shared three goals in a 2-1 win for Virtus Entella. Secondly, three of Pro Vercelli's last four league matches have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land. Finally, Virtus have the second-best goalscoring record in the division with 46 goals in 27 games, and they have scored at least twice in an away game on six occasions this term.
I'll take a swing at backing overs here at 2.8815/8.