Premier League Tactical Preview: Arsenal to drop points against Palace and other battles

Alex Keble
18 April 2019

Guardiola's Man City should collect three points this weekend.

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Alex Keble looks ahead to the 35th round of Premier League games, predicting a big win for Manchester City over Spurs...

"This Saturday’s crucial Premier League game will probably be decided by the midfield battle as an exhausted and depleted Spurs side face a City side hell bent on revenge."

Spurs' weakened midfield to succumb to De Bruyne

Man City v Spurs
Saturday, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

To isolate tactical elements of Wednesday's remarkable game would be a mistake, the 4-3 was an erratic, frenzied contest that seemed to defy every footballing convention - or at least it did for the first 20 minutes or so. After that, and specifically once Moussa Sissoko left the field with an injury, things settled somewhat in Manchester City's favour. This Saturday's crucial Premier League game will probably be decided by the midfield battle as an exhausted and depleted Spurs face a City side hell bent on revenge.

City held 70% possession across the 50 minutes after Sissoko was subbed off, with Dele Alli showing why he is not quite up to manning central midfield from a defensive point of view. Oliver Skipp may get the nod to play alongside Victor Wanyama, but either way the Tottenham midfield looks too weak to cope with Kevin de Bruyne and a refreshed Fernandinho - particular not after the adrenaline rush of their midweek victory.

De Bruyne's hat-trick of assists highlighted Tottenham's inability to adequately shut him down, and this situation is only going to get worse. Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling will probably be picked to run straight at Tottenham's struggling full-backs, too, and with De Bruyne feeding them Saturday should be a more comfortable result for the hosts.

Anderson versus Barnes could define an open game at West Ham

West Ham v Leicester
Saturday, 15:00

Premier League matches are increasingly won by those who hold the minority of possession, such is the modern desire to play on the counter-attack; last weekend, the team that held most of the ball in all five games not involving a Big Six side were defeated. On Saturday, West Ham will undoubtedly be on the back foot - in a hunched formation and ready to pounce - while Leicester look to play an expansive passing game.

The pattern of this match is easy to predict, then, and it should make for an end-to-end contest. West Ham are quick on the flanks, with Manuel Lanzini and Felipe Anderson causing lots of problems for Man Utd's full-backs last weekend, and Leicester's desire to funnel play through the middle could leave too much space out wide for the hosts.

However, one problem with Manuel Pellegrini's system is that Anderson rarely tracks back, and so West Ham could be a little lopsided. Right-back Pablo Zabaleta won't get a lot of support, which makes him vulnerable to the direct play of Harvey Barnes. Which of Anderson and Barnes performs better on that flank - and which player tracks back more diligently - could make the difference in an open game.

Manuel Pellegrini puzzled 1280.jpg

Everton full-backs to expose United's lack of cover on the wings

Everton v Man Utd
Sunday, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

The humbling defeat at Barcelona in midweek has continued a poor run of away form for Man Utd, who look timid and directionless on their travels in recent weeks (four games without a win), whereas Everton are looking stronger and stronger at Goodison Park, winning consecutive games against Chelsea and Arsenal. That psychological difference will drive the tactical patterns on Sunday, with Marco Silva's use of advanced full-backs potentially hurting United.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer rarely expects his wingers to provide cover for the full-backs, which is why they keep conceding down the flanks; whether in a diamond 4-4-2 or a 4-3-3, Solskjaer leaves his weakest areas of the pitch under-stocked. Given that United will push forward in an attempt to salvage their season, this could be a huge problem against Everton's overlapping wingers.

Silva sides try to narrow the pitch with short passing football between the midfielders and inverted wingers, which creates space on the outside for marauding full-backs. Lucas Digne and Seamus Coleman were excellent in their two most recent home wins, notably against Chelsea - who likewise don't support their full-backs out wide. Coleman versus Marcus Rojo and Digne versus Diogo Dalot should worry Man Utd fans.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer claps 1280.jpg

Ramsey & Ozil the key against stubborn Palace

Arsenal v Crystal Palace
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Roy Hodgson's Crystal Palace have been significantly stronger on the road this season than at Selhurst Park, partly because they are more comfortable holding a very deep line and playing counter-attacking football when away from their own fans. Using frustration tactics like these have hurt Arsenal throughout the season; Unai Emery's tactical philosophy requires teams to press them, which in turn allows them to pass through the lines and get in behind.

Palace's two lines of four will likely make Arsenal look pedestrian for long periods, their 3-4-3 formation meaning Matteo Guendouzi and Lucas Torreira will play aimless sideways passes as they wait for an opening that might not come. For Palace to be broken down, it will probably be on the counter-counter - when a Wilfried Zaha, Michy Batshuayi, and Andros Townsend sprint suddenly breaks down.

This is when Mesut Ozil (who won't find gaps in the number ten space very often) and Aaron Ramsey (making late runs through the Palace midfield) can come to life. They are the key players at the Emirates, and much depends on the performances of James McArthur, Luka Milivojevic, and Cheikhou Kouyate. They won't have the agility to handle Ramsey or Ozil should the game become in any way stretched - which it really shouldn't. Palace can get something on Sunday.

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