Premier League Tactical Preview: Sigurdsson v Davies and other key battles

Alex Keble
04 May 2017

Mourinho knows exactly what system to use to heap further misery on Arsenal

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

Alex Keble returns with his regular analysis of four key tactical battles ahead of the weekend action in the Premier League, including how Manchester United will beat Arsenal...

"As Mourinho patiently concedes possession and draws Arsenal further forward, both Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (or Hector Bellerin) and Kieran Gibbs will pour forward, leaving pockets of space for Rashford and Martial to exploit on the counter."

Arsenal v Manchester United

Arsenal's new narrow formation v Rashford & Martial
Sunday, 16:00, Live on Sky Sports 1

Jose Mourinho will attempt to suffocate Arsenal with a deep-lying, counter-attacking system based around the pace of in-form Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial. The Gunners' poor form and meek fighting spirit should ensure the visitors successfully stifle Arsenal's attackers, and Arsene Wenger's new narrow 3-4-2-1 formation makes his side vulnerable on the flanks. It could be a long day for Arsenal fans.

In Wenger's new system, the majority of Arsenal's attacks come through the middle via inside-forwards Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez - which perfectly suits a congested, constrictive United team. As Mourinho patiently concedes possession and draws Arsenal further forward, both Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (or Hector Bellerin) and Kieran Gibbs will pour forward, leaving pockets of space for Rashford and Martial to exploit on the counter.

These two players will bunch up on one flank, causing havoc as the visitors launch long, testing balls over the top for Arsenal's shaky defence to deal with. Expect plenty of nervous clearances and wayward passes as the match progresses, with Mourinho's team ultimately stealing the crucial goal.

Recommended Bet
Back Man United to win at 29/10

Swansea City v Everton

Sigurdsson v Davies
Saturday, 17:30, Live on BT Sport 1

Everton's poor performance against Chelsea last weekend was the direct result of Morgan Schneiderlin's absence and its effect on 18-year-old Tom Davies, who - though talented - too often drifts away from central midfield and rashly chases the ball as Everton's opponents counter. Gylfi Sigurdsson, starting on the left but surreptitiously drifting into the number 10 space, will cause the Toffees plenty of problems in the evening kick-off.

Chelsea repeatedly stormed through the middle of the park last weekend thanks to Davies' poor positional play (and because Eden Hazard pulled Idrissa Gueye out of that zone). Eventually, the visitors made the breakthrough with a long-range Pedro strike - which was only made possible thanks to Gueye's absence and Davies being easily turned. Schneiderlin is still injured for this one, while Gueye will be preoccupied by Fernando Llorente (dropping off the back line to win headers) and Jordan Ayew, who completes a narrow 4-3-3 formation for the Swans.

Ashley Williams' aerial superiority should limit the effectiveness of Paul Clement's main tactic - overloading the left flank to create crossing situations for Tom Carroll, who invariably searches for Llorente in the box - and thus Sigurdsson's surging runs through the middle will be crucial. Expect the Iceland international, who has nine goals and 12 assists this season, to create plenty of chances on the counter and win himself freekicks around the edge of the box.

Recommended Bet
Back Swansea to win at 9/5

Manchester City v Crystal Palace

Jesus & Sane v Zaha & Townsend
Saturday, 12:30, Live on Sky Sports 1

Since Sam Allardyce's side all-but secured their top-flight status they have lost back-to-back Premier League matches, while Mamadou Sakho's injury has completely derailed their burgeoning defensive solidity. This should mean an easy home win, but Pep Guardiola has a habit of bizarre tactical experiments and over-indulging in attack. Consequently, the battle on the flanks could be more unpredictable than it first appears.

Gabriel Jesus makes superb runs both inside and outside the penalty area, making him a serious threat to Palace's Sakho-less defence; Burnley twice walked the ball into the net last weekend, something City should easily be able to copy. However, if Guardiola plays Jesus and Leroy Sane (or Raheem Sterling) on the wings then he will probably overcommit to attack - leaving Palace free to counter in classic Big Sam style.

Guardiola often seems to scrutinise the details so closely that he misses the blatantly obvious, such as playing a super-narrow 3-4-1-2 against Middlesbrough, a narrow team who comfortably dealt with City's attacking lines before Guardiola switched formation in the 50th minute. Allardyce always instructs his players to launch long balls towards Christian Benteke (who won 10 headers when the sides last met in the league), who looks to feed Wilfried Zaha and Andros Townsend, but Guardiola may not make specific plans to stunt this tactic.

These two will most likely be pinned back for long periods by Jesus and Sane, but when the opportunity to counter arises don't expect the City pair to track back. Guardiola's desire to constantly attack leaves him vulnerable on the wings, making the battle on the flanks more interesting than it should be.

Recommended Bet
Back both teams to score at 7/10

Hull City v Sunderland

Hernandez v Kone
Saturday, 15:00

Desperate for three points, Marco Silva's Hull will throw everything at this one, which should mean plenty of crosses into the box to test Sunderland's dreadful defence; both Kamil Grosicki and Lazar Markovic have been in excellent form from the flanks, and Abel Hernandez must be lethal in the penalty area.

Lamine Kone's return to the Sunderland team came too late for David Moyes. The Ivorian won seven headers and made seven clearances in a typically commanding performance against Bournemouth last weekend, making him the biggest obstacle in Silva's path at the KCOM on Saturday.

A home win is highly likely given Sunderland's relegation and Hull's superb record under their new manager (six wins, one draw from seven homes games). Not even Kone will be able to stop a comfortable win for the hosts.

Recommended Bet
Back Hull to win with a -1 handicap at 6/5

Bet 5 Get 5 on Bet Builders

You can get a £5 Free Bet when you place a £5 Bet Builder on selected Football matches this season. Keep an eye on the Betfair site for more info. T&Cs apply.