After two winners in GW15 (11.0 & 8.8), Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is back, using expected goals (xG) to predict all the correct scores of a busy midweek in the Premier League, so you don't have to...
"Sean Dyche’s side sit a place above Tottenham in Infogol’s xG table, with a process that is in fact better than Spurs’ (1.53 xGF, 1.31 xGA per game), so they will fancy their chances of getting something here."
Everton process strong enough for upset
Everton vs Chelsea
Everton parted ways with Marco Silva following a 5-2 derby defeat to Liverpool in midweek, but he has been very unfortunate this season according to expected goals, as they sit 18th but rank 7th on xG. Their process is strong (1.59 xGF, 1.37 xGA per game), and did create good chances against Liverpool, something I see them doing again here. Chelsea bounce back with a win against Aston Villa in midweek, rightly winning, but defensive issues remain. They create good chances (2.10 xGF per game), but have only kept three clean-sheets this season, so are a vulnerable unit. Everton have played pretty well at Goodison Park in matches against the best teams, and Infogol thinks they should be favourites to get a surprise win (37%) in a high-scoring game (54% BTTS, 51% O2.5) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ [13.5]
Yet another win for Liverpool
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Bournemouth's display against Crystal Palace in midweek was nothing short of embarrassing, as they played against 10-men for 70 minutes and only generated 0.40 xG... They were unfortunate to lose, but were very poor yet again, in a fourth straight defeat. They are a mess defensively, allowing 1.77 xGA per game, which doesn't bode will in this game. Liverpool were hugfely impressive against Everton in midweek, even with a changed line-up, as Divock Origi and Xherdan Shaqiri played excellently, providing the Reds with some freshness. That win was their 14th in 15 games, as they show no sign of slowing down, and that isn't a surprise given their process (2.03 xGF, 1.16 xGA per game). Infogol thinks Liverpool will win (58%) in a high-scoring game (59% BTTS, 62% O2.5) - 1-3.
Back the 1-3 @ [12.0]
Two conceded again for Spurs
Tottenham vs Burnley
Jose Mourinho's honeymoon period came to an end at his old stomping ground, as Tottenham were rightly beaten by Manchester United after a sluggish display (xG: MUN 1.40 - 0.96 TOT), conceding twice for the fourth straight game. They seemed to struggle to create against a better defensive unit than the teams they have played previously under Jose, and this game poses another tough task for Spurs. Burnley were beaten comfortably by Manchester City in midweek, but that was their first blowout loss since the played Sheffield United (according to xG). Sean Dyche's side sit a place above Tottenham in Infogol's xG table, with a process that is in fact better than Spurs' (1.53 xGF, 1.31 xGA per game), so they will fancy their chances of getting something here. Infogol thinks Burnley have a good chance of avoiding defeat here (52%), with goals to follow Tottenham again (55% BTTS, 53% O2.5) - 2-2.
Back the 2-2 @ [21.0]
Watford to get a rare win
Watford vs Crystal Palace
Watford are yet to appoint a manager following Quique Sanchez Flores' sacking last weekend, and the Hornets were woeful against Leicester in midweek, barely laying a glove on the Foxes. Their performances haven't been good recently, as they slumped back to the bottom of the table and seven points from safety, and something has to change soon, and I hope the handbrake is taken off this talented Watford team. Crystal Palace were again fortunate in midweek, as they beat Bournemouth when a goalless draw would have been a fairer reflection of the quality of chances (or lack of) created in the game. In fact, Palace sit two places below Watford in Infogol's xG table, so are extremely fortunate to sit 7th, as they possess a process we would expect from a relegation candidate (1.04 xGF, 1.79 xGA per game). Infogol thinks Watford have a good chance of getting a rare win here (43%) in a goal laden game (59% BTTS, 57% O.25) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ [11.0]
City to grab derby spoils
Manchester City vs Manchester United
Manchester City demolished Burnley in midweek, taking their wrath out on the Clarets after an unfortunate draw with Newcastle at the weekend. Pep's side continue to set the pace at the top of Infogol's xG table, having won the xG battle in all 15 of their Premier League games, but they do continue to concede goals, which offers Manchester United hope here. Ole's side were good against Tottenham, rightly running out winners, but this is a much bigger test. Can they maintain the same energy and intensity just three days later? One thing they have going for them in this game is that their record in big games this season is good, and they remain unbeaten against the current top five, as well as drawing with Arsenal and beating Spurs. I think these games suit United's counter-attacking preference, which is why they have success, and they could cause City problems here. Infogol fully expects City to win though (69%), but we do see both teams scoring (57%) in a high-scoring game (67%) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @ [11.5]
8 in a row for Foxes
Aston Villa vs Leicester
Aston Villa were beaten in midweek by Chelsea, but don't believe the narrative that Chelsea were 'hanging on', as the Blues were comfortable winners according to expected goals (xG: CHE 2.00 - 1.10 AST). Defensively they remain vulnerable (2.09 xGA per game), but I think that is because they open up and have a go at teams, which makes a nice change. Leicester show no sign of slowing down after another comprehensive win in midweek, as they beat Watford 2-0, their seventh straight win and the fifth in which they have kept a clean sheet. Brendan Rodgers' side are trending in the right direction, with their process improving since the start of the season (1.79 xGF, 1.03 xGA per game), which is a huge worry for the chasing pack. They rank as the best defensive team in the league according to expected goals, so Infogol doesn't expect both teams to score here (48% BTTS) in a low-scoring (48% O2.5) Leicester win (56%) - 0-2.
Back the 0-2 @ [11.5]
Saints to make it a hat-trick
Newcastle vs Southampton
Newcastle made it a good week with a 2-0 win over Sheffield United following a 2-2 draw with Manchester City, but the aggregate xG in those two games was 0.91 - 4.18, so Steve Bruce's side have been exceptionally fortunate. They scored four goals from 12 shots equating to just 0.91 xG... that doesn't happen every week. They sit second-bottom of our xG table, with a really poor process (0.97 xGF, 1.86 xGA per game), and if they continue performing how they are, results will take a turn for the worst. In contrast, Southampton are playing well and getting the results they deserve. They rightly got a point at Arsenal (deserved all three) before beating both Watford and Norwich after much improved defensive displays (1.52 xGA in two games). Saints are trending in the right direction, and they have the firepower (1.57 xGF per game) to hurt Newcastle, and Infogol thinks the visitors will win (40%) a high-scoring game (57% O2.5, 59% BTTS) - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ [11.5]
Blades to be blunted again
Norwich vs Sheffield United
Norwich were rightly beaten at Southampton in midweek, and will be looking forward to getting back to home comforts, especially after their performance against Arsenal last time out at Carrow Road. They have attacking talent, there is no question about that, but they need to be more consistent, starting with this game. Sheffield United were unfortunate to lose to Newcastle in midweek, a run that ended their unbeaten run. The Blades still boast an unbeaten record on the road, but they are very fortunate that this the case, ranking as the fifth worst travelling team in the league, with a poor process on the road (1.13 xGF, 1.84 xGA per game). This could be the game where United's away bubble bursts, and Infogol thinks Norwich will edge this one (39%) in a game that should see goals (52% BTTS, 53% O2.5) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ [12.0]
Wolves to bite Seagulls
Brighton vs Wolves
Brighton picked up a huge three points in midweek, as they went to the Emirates and rightly beat Arsenal 2-1 (xG: ARS 1.03 - 1.99 BHA). They have been threatening that kind of performance in recent weeks through a tough schedule, and now get to return home, though they face another top side. Defensively they are gettable though (1.77 xGA per game), despite offering an attacking threat (1.51 xGF per game), so an intriguing game awaits. Wolves have been sensational following a slow start, and are unbeaten in 10 Premier League games following a 2-0 win over West Ham. They are now at the levels we saw from them last season (1.61 xGF, 1.30 xGA per game), making them hugely dangerous in the top six race, and maybe the top four race. Infogol thinks goals are on the cards in this game between two good attacking sides (55% O2.5, 57% BTTS), but thinks Wolves will prevail here (45%) - 1-2.
Back the @ 1-2 [12.0]
Tight game between two out of form sides
West Ham vs Arsenal
West Ham returned to losing ways at Wolves in midweek, and rightly so after another tame attacking performance, and another woeful defensive performance (xG: WOL 1.98 - 0.60 WHU). They rank as the third worst team on xG this season, so it is no surprise to see them struggling, and defensively they are allowing 2.014 xGA per game, the second most in the league. Arsenal were beaten by Brighton in midweek, another poor performance in which they got exactly what they deserved. They sit 12th in the xG table, with a negative process (1.54 xGF, 1.67 xGA per game), so a huge improvement is needed, and fast. It is hard to make a case for that happening here, even if West Ham are also in a bad moment. Infogol thinks West Ham will avoid defeat here (56%), but Infogol isn't expecting too many goals (60% U3.5), but does see both sides scoring (64%) - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ [9.2]
Infogol's 19/20 Premier League Correct Score P+L
Everton 2-1 Chelsea: Back the @ 2-1 [13.5]
Bournemouth 1-3 Liverpool: Back the 1-3 @ [12.0]
Tottenham 2-2 Burnley: Back the @ 2-2 [21.0]
Watford 2-1 Crystal Palace: Back the 2-1 @ [11.0]
Manchester City 3-1 Manchester United: Back the 3-1 @ [11.5]
Aston Villa 0-2 Leicester: Back the 0-2 @ [11.5]
Newcastle 1-2 Southampton: Back the @ 1-2 [11.5]
Norwich 2-1 Sheffield United: Back the 2-1 @ [12.0]
Brighton 1-2 Wolves: Back the @ 1-2 [12.0]
West Ham 1-1 Arsenal: : Back the 1-1 @ [9.2]