After an 11.0 winner in GW13, Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is back, using expected goals (xG) to predict all the correct scores of a busy Premier League weekend, so you don't have to...
"Norwich will be fancying their chances of getting something here, despite Emery getting the sack, and Infogol thinks they can heap more misery on Arsenal (51% NOR or Draw)."
City win, but no clean-sheet
Newcastle vs Manchester City
Newcastle's mini-run came to a crashing halt at Aston Villa on Monday night, as Steve Bruce's side were extremely poor in a deserved 2-0 defeat. They remain in the bottom three of Infogol's xG table, with a very poor process, but their process is much better at home than on the road (1.27 xGF, 1.50 xGA per game), especially in attack. Manchester City did just enough to deservedly beat Chelsea last weekend, but were far from their best (xG: MCI 1.30 - 0.88 CHE).
They moved up to third with that win, and need to keep on that trail if they are to successfully chase down Liverpool. Pep's side remain top of Infogol's xG table, with the best process in the league, and should have no issues in this game. However, Infogol thinks Newcastle will get on the scoresheet (50% BTTS) in a high-scoring (67% O2.5) City win (77%) - 1-3.
Back the @ 1-3 11.010/1
No let up for Palace
Burnley vs Crystal Palace
Burnley picked up another mightily impressive win last weekend, as they went to Watford and hammered them 3-0 (xG: WAT 1.01 - 3.20 BUR), the same scoreline they beat West Ham by in GW12.
Sean Dyche's side rightly sit seventh in the league table, with a fantastic process (1.55 xGF, 1.25 xGA per game). Crystal Palace were beaten again last weekend, going down to Liverpool, and don't let anyone tell you they were unlucky, as it was a fully deserved defeat (xG: CRY 1.18 - 1.87 LIV). Palace rank dead last in terms of non-penalty big chances created in the Premier League, and have conceded the second most non-penalty big chances, so Roy Hodgson's team really are trending in the wrong direction. Infogol thinks Burnley will get a third straight win here (55%) in what we expect to be a high-scoring game (59% O2.5, 58% BTTS) - 2-1.
Back the @ 2-1 10.519/2
Pressure piling on Pellegrini
Chelsea vs West Ham
Chelsea saw their six game winning streak come to an end last weekend against Manchester City, but they again showcased signs of improvements in big games. They still rank as the third best team in the league on xG, with a very strong process (2.05 xGF, 1.29 xGA per game), but they continue to find it hard to keep clean sheets (3 in 13). West Ham are a team in free-fall, as they were beaten for the fifth time in six games last weekend in a 3-2 defeat to Tottenham, with the scoreline flattering the Hammers (xG: WHU 0.74 - 2.35 TOT). Manuel Pellegrini's side rank as the third worst team in the league on xG, allowing an average of 2.09 xGA per game, so they have serious defensive issues that are worst than just 'we haven't got Fabianski'. Infogol is expecting Chelsea to inflict another defeat on West Ham (62%) in a high-scoring game (54% BTTS, 59% O2.5) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @ 11.521/2
Another win for Red steam train
Liverpool vs Brighton
Liverpool left it late to beat Crystal Palace last weekend, but it was another fully deserved three points that saw them extend their record to 12 wins and one draw in 13. Klopp's team just don't look like they can be beat at the moment, even more so at home, where their process is exceptional (2.51 xGF, 0.94 xGA per game). Brighton have lost back to back games coming into this match against two of the leagues better sides, going down to Manchester United and Leicester.
The defeats themselves were expected, but the manner of the defeats are worrying, as they have allowed 7.87 xGA, looking extremely vulnerable as they play a very open style of football. The same here would yield the same result. Infogol thinks it will be another win for Liverpool (75%), but a clean sheet looks likely (48% BTTS) in a high-scoring game (65% O2.5) - 3-0.
Back the 3-0 @ 8.415/2
Honeymoon continues for Mou
Tottenham vs Bournemouth
Tottenham have made an entertaining start to life under Jose Mourinho, with their two games seeing 11 goals in two deserved defeats, according to expected goals. They were extremely impressive against West Ham last weekend, and face another poor defensive team this week, which bodes well for Spurs. Bournemouth were poor against Wolves last weekend, and were never really in the game, going down 2-0 before being reduced to 10-men. They have won just one of their last seven in the league, and away from home they are very leaky, allowing 2.03 xGA per game on the road this season. Infogol thinks this will be another high-scoring (58% BTTS, 59% O2.5) Tottenham victory (55%) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @ 11.521/2
Saints to snap out of slump
Southampton vs Watford
A relegation six-pointer at St Mary's, as the current bottom two do battle. Southampton were extremely unfortunate to only draw with Arsenal last weekend, as they were the better team by far on the day (xG: ARS 1.90 - 2.70 SOU). They are unfortunate to be in the relegation zone at this stage of the season, ranking as the 13th best team in the league on xG, and continue to create good chances (1.54 xGF per game). Watford looked to have turned a corner after registering their first win of the season, but were brought back down to earth with a bump by Burnley last weekend in a 3-0 loss. The Hornets continue to concede big chances regularly (1.91 xGA per game), and they show no signs of an upturn in their performances. Infogol calculates a 48% chance of a home win in this one, with goals on the cards (66% O2.5, 66% BTTS) in an entertaining game.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.09/1
Emery's gone but nothing has changed
Norwich vs Arsenal
Norwich got another surprise victory last weekend, as were completely out of form as they went to Everton, but managed to get a fully deserved 2-0 win in what was a really strong all-round performance, as they created good chances and allowed only low-probability ones (xG: EVE 1.02 - 1.95 NOR). The key for Norwich now; repeating that level of performance every week. Arsenal come into this game winless in five league games after a 2-2 draw with Southampton last weekend, though they were fortunate to get a point after another dismal defensive performance (xG: ARS 1.90 - 2.70 SOU). Unai Emery was relieved of his duties after a 2-1 defeat in the Europa League, so it will be very interesting to see the effect that has on the Gunners' process, which is currently that of a bottom-half team (1.52 xGF, 1.71 xGA per game). Norwich will be fancying their chances of getting something here, despite Emery getting the sack, and Infogol thinks they can heap more misery on Arsenal (51% NOR or Draw) in a game where both teams hit the net (58%) - 1-1.
Back the @ 1-1 9.417/2
Wolves to edge 5th vs 6th clash
Wolves vs Sheffield United
A hugely interesting clash at Molineux, as 5th placed Wolves host 6th placed Sheffield United. Wolves have hit their stride after a slow start, coming into this game on an eight match unbeaten run, registering four wins in that time including a comfortable 2-1 win over Bournemouth. Their process is strong (1.59 xGF, 1.34 xGA per game), and they are getting to the same levels they showcased last season. Sheffield United drew 3-3 with Manchester United last weekend in a hugely entertaining game, but they come into this unbeaten on the road (1W, 5D), though they have been extremely fortunate in their away matches. Chris Wilder's side rank as the fourth worst away team in the league this season, with a poor defensive process (1.91 xGA per away game), being fortunate to have only conceded 5 times in six away games (11.45 xGA). Infogol thinks Wolves represent great value to get the win here (62%) in an entertaining game (51% BTTS, 55% O2.5) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.89/1
Desperate Silva to snap Leicester winning streak
Leicester vs Everton
Leicester show no sign of slowing down, as they registered a fifth straight win in the league last weekend in what was an emphatic performance against Brighton (xG: BHA 0.82 - 4.32 LEI). They rank as the fifth best team on xG this season, with a process that is continually improving (1.69 xGF, 1.07 xGA per game), but this is a much tougher game than the league position of the two sides suggests. Everton were extremely poor against Norwich last weekend, with a 2-0 defeat piling more pressure on Marco Silva ahead of a tough run of fixtures. The Toffees though have been extremely unfortunate this season, as they rate as the sixth best team in the league according to expected goals, with a process not too far behind Leicester (1.59 xGF, 1.23 xGA per game). This won't be a cakewalk for Leicester, and Everton won't be as bad as they were against Norwich, and Infogol thinks Everton have a decent chance of getting something (53%) from a low-scoring game (48% O2.5) in which both sides hit the net (51%) - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 8.615/2
Much needed win for Man Utd
Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Manchester United didn't turn up for 80 of the 90 minutes against Sheffield United last weekend, but in the 10 they did, United were extremely dynamic in attack, netting three times. Over the course of the season, Ole's side have ranked as the fourth best team in the league on xG, with a strong process (1.84 xGF, 1.14 xGA per game), and their attacking performances are getting better as the season goes on. Aston Villa were deserved winners against Newcastle on Monday, but had lost their three previous games against three of the best teams in the league, a category that United fall into. Villa are defensively vulnerable (2.09 xGA per game), and Infogol expects goals at Old Trafford (58% O2.5, 52% BTTS) in a home win (68%) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @ 12.011/1
For more tips and insight on the weekend football, check out the latest episode of Football...Only Bettor
Infogol's 19/20 Premier League Correct Score P+L
Newcastle 1-3 Manchester City: Back the @ 1-3 11.010/1
Burnley 2-1 Crystal Palace: Back the 2-1 @ 10.519/2
Chelsea 3-1 West Ham: Back the @ 3-1 11.521/2
Liverpool 3-0 Brighton: Back the 3-0 @ 8.415/2
Tottenham 3-1 Bournemouth: Back the 3-1 @ 11.521/2
Southampton 2-1 Watford: Back the 2-1 @ 10.09/1
Norwich 1-1 Arsenal: Back the @ 1-1 9.417/2
Wolves 2-1 Sheffield United: Back the 2-1 @ 9.89/1
Leicester 1-1 Everton: Back the @ 1-1 8.615/2
Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa: : Back the 3-1 @ 12.011/1