After landing two winners in GW12, Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is back, using expected goals (xG) to predict all the correct scores of a busy Premier League weekend, so you don't have to...
"Both fully deserve to be there according to expected goals, as both sides have conceded a hot of chances regularly in matches. Mourinho will likely try to resolve this as his first act as Spurs boss, but may fall short in this match, having had only three days to prepare."
Not the fairy-tale start for Mourinho
West Ham vs Tottenham
This game all of a sudden has a different look to it, after what transpired in mid-week at Tottenham. Mauricio Pochettino has been relieved of his duties, and replaced by José Mourinho, an intriguing change which I took a closer look at on infogol.net.
This is a huge game for both teams, not only due to the rivalry, but both teams are struggling in the bottom half of the table. Both fully deserve to be there according to expected goals, as both sides have conceded a hot of chances regularly in matches. Mourinho will likely try to resolve this as his first act as Spurs boss, but may fall short in this match, having had only three days to prepare. Infogol calculates a 58% of BTTS here, and we fancy them to get something in this game (56% WHU or draw) - 1-1.
Back the @ 1-1 8.615/2
More goals at the Emirates
Arsenal vs Southampton
Should Arsenal attempt to bring in Mauricio Pochettino now he is available? Is the question many Arsenal fans, ex-players and pundits have been asking. They have a point, as in terms of xG, Unai Emery's team have been bad this season, ranking as only the 10th best team in the league.
Unsurprisingly they continue to concede chances (1.63 xGA per game), so will likely fail to keep a clean sheet for the 11th time in 13 league games here. Southampton are a team that are struggling badly at the wrong end of the table, but their bad run of recent results (4L, 1D) has been largely due to a tough schedule. They continue to create good chances in matches (1.44 xGF per game), and will trouble Arsenal here. Infogol thinks goals are on the cards (66% O2.5, 63% BTTS), and while we aren't as confident of an Arsenal win as the bookies, we still think the Gunners have a 58% chance of getting a much-needed win, though it won't be pretty - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.28/1
Wolves to bite Cherries
Bournemouth vs Wolves
Things were looking up for Bournemouth after three clean-sheets on the bounce, but they went up to Newcastle - the worst attacking team in the league on xG - and conceded nearly 3 xG...Are crazy Bournemouth back?
Let's hope so, because they are a fun team. Over the course of the season so far, Eddie Howe's men have allowed an average of 1.77 xGA per game, and Wolves will be licking their lips at the thought of playing against that defence. Nuno's side are on a seven-match unbeaten run in the league following an impressive display against Aston Villa (xG: WOL 2.66 - 0.68 AST). They are getting close to the levels they showed last season after a slow start, with a process far superior to Bournemouth's (1.60 xGF, 1.38 xGA per game). Infogol thinks they will get the win here (41%), in a high-scoring game (64% BTTS, 62% O2.5) - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ 11.010/1
Brighton to slow Leicester momentum
Brighton vs Leicester
Brighton were comfortably beaten by Manchester United last weekend, with their miserable away form continuing (4L, 1D, 1W), and will be desperately looking forward to getting back to the AMEX, where they have won three in a row. Graham Potter's side have an incredible process in front of their own fans (2.02 xGF, 0.86 xGA per game), and are a hugely dangerous opponent for in-form Leicester.
The Foxes went into the international break second in the table following a 2-0 win over Arsenal, a game that looked comfortable for Leicester, but one in which they again didn't create too many chances (xG: LEI 1.26 - 1.03 ARS). Brendan Rodgers' side sit sixth in our xG table, just two spots above Brighton, and this is another good test for the top four hopefuls. Infogol expects this to be a tight, low-scoring game (53% U2.5), but sees both teams scoring (51%), though we do fancy Brighton to get something from the game (56% BHA or draw) - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 7.06/1
No stopping Liverpool
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Crystal Palace are in freefall after a good start, failing to win in their last four games, though they have had a tough schedule, and it doesn't get any easier here. Roy Hodgson's side sit in a lowly 18th in Infogol's xG table, with a very poor process (1.10 xGF, 1.86 xGA per game), and in the last six matches they have allowed an average of 2.15 xGA per game...not good.
Liverpool extended their lead at the top of the table to eight points following a huge 3-1 win over Manchester City, a game in which they were extremely clinical (xG: LIV 1.10 - 1.68 MCI). The Reds continue to show no sign of slowing down, though they have continually given teams chances in matches (1.11 xGA per game), so don't expect a clean sheet for Klopp's men. Goals are forecast at Selhurst (54% BTTS, 60% O2.5), with a Liverpool win likely (64%) - 1-3.
Back the 1-3 @ 13.012/1
More woes for Norwich
Everton vs Norwich
Everton got a huge win at Southampton to ease some pressure on Marco Silva, but it was another very good display according to expected goals (xG: SOU 0.87 - 2.38 EVE), something we have seen regularly from Everton. They sit 5th in our xG table with a very good process (1.63 xGF, 1.17 xGA per game), and this is must win given the schedule they have coming up (LEI, LIV, CHE, MUN, ARS). Norwich are in trouble.
They sunk to the bottom of the table after a disappointing defeat at home to fellow strugglers Watford, yet another game in which they created very little (averaging 1.14 xGF per game). Defensively they remain wide open (2.29 xGA per game) and rank the worst team in the Premier League. Things aren't looking good. Infogol thinks this will be a comfortable win for Everton (67%), and they will likely keep Norwich out (52% BTTS 'no') - 2-0.
Back the 2-0 @ 8.07/1
Burnley to keep Watford in relegation zone
Watford vs Burnley
Watford got their first win of the season at the 12th time of asking last time out, beating now-bottom Norwich in comfortable fashion, and it was a win that was coming, as they were playing well without getting results. Defensively they remain vulnerable though (1.80 xGA per game), and have to be very careful here against a strong Burnley team. Sean Dyche's side simply blew West Ham away in their last game (xG: BUR 2.28 - 0.47 WHU), and remain in the top half of Infogol's xG table after a solid start to the season (1.41 xGF, 1.27 xGA per game). Infogol thinks Burnley are the better of the two sides here, even with Watford's home advantage, giving the visitors a 40% chance of winning, with goals expected (60% BTTS, 57% O2.5) - 1-2.
Back the @ 1-2 11.521/2
Chelsea to face City backlash
Manchester City vs Chelsea
Manchester City suffered their third defeat of the season at Anfield last weekend, though they were unfortunate to lose that game according to expected goals (xG: LIV 1.10 - 1.68 MCI). Pep's side lost only four games in the whole of last season and won the league by just a point, so they really can't afford too many more slip-ups. City rank as the best team in the league on expected goals, with the best underlying process of any team by a country mile (3.15 xGF, 1.19 xGA per game), creating chances for fun. That xGF average increases to 3.43 per home game, so expect a City onslaught at the Etihad.
Chelsea are the form team in the Premier League, coming into this game on a six-match winning streak and above City in the league, with Frank Lampard deserving a huge amount of credit for their start to the season. Chelsea's early season success has been no fluke, as can be read in my Chelsea breakdown article on Infogol, with their attack the second best in the league according to xG, and their defence rapidly improving. Infogol is expecting a hugely entertaining game at the Etihad (63% O2.5, 53% BTTS), but we think City will get back to winning ways here (69%) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @ 11.010/1
Man Utd to end Sheff Utd run
Sheffield United vs Manchester United
Who would have thought that it would be Sheffield United and not Manchester United in 5th place after 12 games? Just three defeats in that time has meant a fantastic start for the Blades, and they are unbeaten in five coming into this game after a 1-1 draw at Tottenham. However, while they sit 5th, according to xG Sheffield United have been only the 14th best team in the league this season. Their huge over-performance has come in defence, as they have conceded just nine goals from chances equating to 18.13 xGA, a level that is unsustainable over the course of the season. Manchester United have won five of their last six games in all competitions, including an impressive win over Brighton last time out (xG: MUN 3.55 - 1.22 BHA).
They are starting to look more like a team that can contend for a top four spot, with their attacking process getting better as the season goes on and as players return. They rank as the fourth best team on xG this season, and rank as the second best away team in the league according to expected goals, with a very strong process on the road (1.84 xGF, 0.89 xGA per game), so Infogol makes them strong favourites to get the win here (57%), in an entertaining game (54% BTTS, 55% O2.5) - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ 10.09/1
Newcastle good run to continue
Aston Villa vs Newcastle
Aston Villa went into the international break on the back of three successive defeats, all of which have been fully deserved, as they continue to concede a host of good chances on a regular basis (2.18 xGA per game). A rejuvenated Newcastle will look to take advantage of this, as they moved up to 13th thanks to back-to-back wins, and in both games they created a host of chances. In fact, 41% of their total xGF has come in the last two matches against West Ham and Bournemouth, so it looks as though the handbrake has been taken off by Steve Bruce. Newcastle have a good chance of causing Villa a great deal of problems here, but we aren't expecting too many fireworks (42% O2.5), though we think both teams will get on the scoresheet (52%), with the visitors fancied to get something (61% NEW or draw) - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 7.06/1
For more tips and insight on the weekend football, check out the latest episode of Football...Only Bettor
Infogol's 19/20 Premier League Correct Score P+L
West Ham 1-1 Tottenham: Back the @ 1-1 8.615/2
Arsenal 2-1 Southampton: Back the 2-1 @ 9.28/1
Bournemouth 1-2 Wolves: Back the @ 1-2 11.010/1
Brighton 1-1 Leicester: Back the 1-1 @ 7.06/1
Crystal Palace 1-3 Liverpool: Back the 1-3 @ 13.012/1
Everton 2-0 Norwich: Back the 2-0 @ 8.07/1
Watford 1-2 Burnley: Back the @ 1-2 11.521/2
Manchester City 3-1 Chelsea: Back the 3-1 @ 11.010/1
Sheffield United 1-2 Manchester United: Back the @ 1-2 10.09/1
Aston Villa 1-1 Newcastle: : Back the 1-1 @ 7.06/1