Premier League Score Predictor with Infogol GW11: Everton can beat sorry Spurs

Tottenham manager Mauricio Pochettino
Mauricio Pochettino has plenty to ponder

Using expected goals data Infogol predict all the correct scores of a busy Premier League weekend, so you don't have to...

"Tottenham were poor against Liverpool for the most part, and rightly lost, meaning they have won just one of their last five Premier League games. They sit 11th, which according to expected goals, is two places higher than they deserve to be, with their underlying process extremely worrying (1.30 xGF, 1.64 xGA per game)."

This season's Score Predictor tips comes from Infogol, a free downloadable app that uses expected goals to generate the best betting tips and advice. Get your helping of correct score predictions here...

Another road win for Ole

Bournemouth vs Manchester United
Saturday 12:30

1 BOU vs MUN probs.png

Who would have though that David Luiz would have won Bournemouth's goal of the month award for October? Well, it happened, as the Cherries have failed to notch in three successive Premier League games, and rightly so according to xG. Two points from those three games would suggest that Eddie Howe should revert back to the madness that saw his side play exciting football, and will probably need to here. Manchester United got an emphatic win over Norwich last weekend (xG: NOR 0.94 - 4.61 MUN), their best attacking display of the season by a long way, racking up 3.01 non-pen xG. Anthony Martial was the only real difference in that game, providing United with another dimension and another threat. Infogol thinks there will be goals here (63% BTTS, 62% O2.5), but also thinks United will get another away win (49%) - 1-2.

Back the 1-2 @ 10.09/1

More dropped points for Arsenal

Arsenal vs Wolves
Saturday 15:00

2 ARS vs WOL probs.png

Arsenal continue to entertain, with a high-scoring 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace another vintage Arsenal display, as they blew a 2-0 lead (xG: ARS 1.58 - 1.72 CRY). The Gunners followed that up with a 5-5 draw at Anfield against Liverpool's kids, and defensive issues remain at the forefront of their struggles, with Unai Emery's side allowing 1.65 xGA per game. Wolves were unfortunate to only draw with Newcastle last time out (xG: NEW 1.09 - 1.97 WOL), and opted to rest players in the Carabao Cup which looks a wise move given their hectic schedule. They took four points off Arsenal last season, and not too much as changed at either club, so this is another extremely tricky game for the home side. Infogol thinks this will be another game of dropped points for Arsenal, calculating a 54% chance of Wolves or Draw here, in what should be another high-scoring game (60% O2.5, 62% BTTS) - 2-2.

Back the 2-2 @ 15.5

Easy Liverpool win

Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Saturday 15:00

3 AST vs LIV probs.png

Aston Villa were comfortably beaten by Manchester City last weekend, but did give a good account of themselves in the first half especially. They rightly sit 15th in the table, but defensively look extremely vulnerable, allowing 2.08 xGA per game. Liverpool rightly beat Tottenham last weekend to take their record to 9-1-0, racking up 28 points from a possible 30. Their process is fantastic (2.10 xGF, 1.10 xGA per game), and their starters will be well rested after having the Carabao Cup off in midweek. Liverpool are strong favourites to get the win (66%), and the model suggests that they can do so without conceding - similar to Manchester City last weekend - calculating a 55% of BTTS 'no' - 0-2.

Back the 0-2 @ 9.08/1

Three home wins on the bounce for Potter

Brighton vs Norwich
Saturday 15:00

4 BHA vs NOR probs.png

Brighton needed some VAR help to beat Everton, but according to expected goals they rightly picked up a second home win on the bounce. Graham Potter's side sit 7th in Infogol's xG table, so their underlying numbers are very impressive, so will likely build on their recent home success. Norwich were hammered by Manchester United last weekend, another poor defensive display, with Daniel Farke's side allowing a league high average of 2.31 xGA per game. Brighton are expected to get the win here (49%), but Infogol thinks there will be few goals (52% U2.5) in a comfortable home win - 2-0.

Back the 2-0 @ 10.519/2

No respite for Saints

Manchester City vs Southampton
Saturday 15:00

5 MCI vs SOU probs.png

What is the last thing Southampton need after losing 9-0 at home against Leicester... two trips to Manchester City in a week, and they have already lost the first game 3-1 in the Carabao Cup. Manchester City are averaging 3.22 xGF per game this season, so will open Saints up at will here. Southampton haven't been as bad this season as the league table suggests - though were awful against Leicester - and do create good chances in matches (1.57 xGF per game), so will likely get on the scoresheet in this game. City should win (84%), with BTTS (55%) likely in a high-scoring game (79% O2.5) - 3-1.

Back the 3-1 @ 13.5

Burnley to win at the Lane

Sheffield United vs Burnley
Saturday 15:00

6 SHU vs BUR probs.png

Sheffield United earned another good point on the road last weekend, but were fortunate to draw with West Ham, allowing the Hammers to create good chances (xG: WHU 2.61 - 1.23 SHU). While the Blades sit in a lofty 8th position in the table, Chris Wilder's side rank as only the 17th best team on xG, so their process isn't as good as their results would suggest. That is the opposite for Burnley, who have been unfortunate to lose there last two games against Leicester (xG: LEI 1.11 - 1.96 BUR) and Chelsea (xG: BUR 1.93 - 0.86 CHE), and rank as the 8th best team in the league on xG. Sean Dyche deserves a huge amount of credit for turning Burnley's process around, and they have only lost four games this season - all to teams in the top five of the Premier League. Infogol actually makes Burnley favourites to win this game (42%) instead of Sheffield United, though this will be a tightly fought game with few goals (52% U2.5) - 0-1.

Back the 0-1 @ 10.09/1

Much-needed Hammers win

West Ham vs Newcastle
Saturday 15:00

7 WHU vs NEW probs.png

West Ham were left frustrated by Sheffield United and some poor finishing last weekend, as they deserved to win the game thanks to their best performance since gameweek 4. Defensively they are still a mess, but going forward they remain a threat, and have enough to breakdown Newcastle. Steve Bruce's side got another point last weekend against Wolves, but were fortunate to do so after another poor display - albeit against another of the league's top sides. In fact, Newcastle have played seven of last season's top eight already this season, so their schedule will get easier, but their process needs to improve if they are to collect wins. The Hammers are expected to win (51%), in a high-scoring game (55% O2.5) with both teams scoring (56%) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.417/2

Watford to halt Chelsea charge

Watford vs Chelsea
Saturday 17:30

8 WAT vs CHE probs.png

Watford picked up another point last weekend, this time drawing with Bournemouth, as the ship has been steadied by Quique Sánchez Flores, with the Hornets losing just two of their six games under him. They have been unfortunate this season, as although they prop up the table, they rate as the 12th best team on xG, and pose a serious attacking threat (1.35 xGF per game), while they have looked decent defensively if you remove the 8-0 anomaly against Manchester City (1.37 xGA per game - without MCI drubbing). Chelsea were hugely fortunate after a clinical display against Burnley last weekend, scoring four times from chances totalling 0.86 xGF. Their seven game winning run came to an end in the week in the Carabao Cup, and question marks remain defensively, with the Blues allowing 1.34 xGA per game. Infogol thinks Watford will pick up another point in this game, calculating a 52% chance that they avoid defeat, with BTTS (55%) likely here - 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ 9.617/2

Palace to take points off Foxes

Crystal Palace vs Leicester
Sunday 14:00

9 CRY vs LEI probs.png

Crystal Palace earned a good point at Arsenal last weekend, coming from 2-0 down to get a point, after another decent attacking display. Roy Hodgson's side remain an extremely awkward opponent to face, and that will again be the case at Selhurst here, where their only defeat has come against Manchester City. Leicester were ruthless - and clinical - against Southampton last Friday in their 9-0 demolition (xG: SOU 0.33 - 4.85 LEI), but just how much did we learn about this Leicester side from that game? My take, not that much. I still feel that, on the whole this season they are fortunate to be where they are in the table, and there remain question marks over their attacking process. You can read more of my Leicester break down here. Defensively they have been solid (1.15 xGA per game), but this is expected to be a much greater test. Infogol calculates that Crystal Palace have a 58% chance of avoiding defeat here, with BTTS (54%) likely in a low-scoring game (53% U2.5) - 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ 6.611/2

Toffees to pile more misery on Spurs

Everton vs Tottenham
Sunday 16:30

10 EVE vs TOT probs.png

Everton were taking their frustrations out on VAR after a 3-2 defeat at Brighton, but their attacking display was poor. This was unusual from Marco Silva's side, who have been extremely unfortunate this season, as they sit 16th in the table but rank as the 5th best team on xG. Their process is strong (1.61 xGF, 1.27 xGA per game), and can get another home win. Tottenham were poor against Liverpool for the most part, and rightly lost, meaning they have won just one of their last five Premier League games. They sit 11th, which according to expected goals, is two places higher than they deserve to be, with their underlying process extremely worrying (1.30 xGF, 1.64 xGA per game). Infogol makes Everton favourites to get the win here (43%) and pile more misery on Spurs, but both teams will get on the scoresheet (53%) - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ 11.010/1

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Infogol's 19/20 Premier League Correct Score P+L

Staked: 100pts
Returned: 87.4pts
P+L: -12.6pts

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