This season's Score Predictor tips comes from Infogol, a free downloadable app that uses expected goals to generate the best betting tips and advice. Get your helping of correct score predictions here...
Everton to get much-needed win
Everton vs West Ham - Saturday 12:30
Marco Silva is coming under increasing pressure at Everton following four straight defeats, but the Toffee's were unlucky to lose at Burnley prior to the international break (xG: BUR 0.54 - 1.48 EVE), and overall their underlying numbers really aren't bad. Maintain the process we have seen so far (1.56 xGF, 1.32 xGA per game) and it is only a matter of time before results turn around.
West Ham were rightly beaten by Crystal Palace before the break, and their defensive process is awful, allowing an average of 2.05 xGA per game. Infogol thinks this is the breakthrough game for Everton (56% chance win), while goals are likely (58% BTTS, 59% Over 2.5) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.89/1
Goalless at Villa Park
Aston Villa vs Brighton - Saturday 15:00
Aston Villa got an important win at Norwich last time out, a 5-1 success in which they created good chances, but once again allowed plenty. Brighton were one of the standout teams in GW8 after their hugely impressive win over Tottenham (xG: BHA 2.27 - 0.40 TOT), and their underlying numbers this season have been excellent, sitting sixth in Infogol's xG table. They will likely dominate possession in this one, and the Infogol model is pretty much on the fence with this game, and given we aren't expecting goals (61% under 2.5, 55% BTTS 'no'), this could be a dull one - 0-0.
Back the 0-0 @ 13.5
More misery for Norwich
Bournemouth vs Norwich - Saturday 15:00
Bournemouth were a little disappointing at Arsenal last time out, especially by their strong attacking standards, but face a weak Norwich defence here. The Canaries were thumped by Aston Villa 5-1 before the break, after yet another shocking defensive display. Daniel Farke's side have allowed 2.22 xGA per game so far, meaning Bournemouth will be licking their lips here. Infogol gives the Cherries a 55% chance of winning, with a high-scoring game likely (62% Over 2.5, 60% BTTS) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @ 13.012/1
Win and clean sheet for Chelsea
Chelsea vs Newcastle - Saturday 15:00
Chelsea have been extremely impressive of late, both in attack and defence, with solid offensive numbers, and improving defensive figures. They will have no problem creating chances here against this Newcastle side. Steve Bruce oversaw a much-needed win against Manchester United before the break, but were fortunate to get the three points (xG: NEW 0.70 - 1.12 MUN). They rank as the worst team in the league on xG, and by far the worst attacking team (0.74 xGF per game), so are likely to struggle to trouble Chelsea. The Blues have a 60% chance of winning according to Infogol, but few goals are expected (54% Under 2.5), with a shutout likely (56% BTTS 'no') - 2-0.
Back the 2-0 @ 7.413/2
Narrow Foxes win
Leicester vs Burnley - Saturday 15:00
Leicester were rightly beaten by Liverpool last time out, despite many pundits and fans suggesting otherwise, as the Foxes managed just two shots equating to 0.1 xG (xG: LIV 3.67 - 0.10 LEI). Brendan Rodgers' side actually rank as the second worst attacking team in the league after eight games (1.08 xGF per game), so are really not creating as much as they should be. Burnley have been very impressive in this campaign, and are unbeaten against teams that finished outside the top six last season, and will make life extremely difficult for Leicester here. The home side are expected to win (51% chance), but won't have things their own way, with a low-scoring game expected (53% Under 2.5) - 1-0.
Back the 1-0 @ 6.86/1
Spurs to get their mojo back
Tottenham vs Watford - Saturday 15:00
This is a huge game for both teams, with both Tottenham and Watford heading into the international break in poor form. Spurs were humiliated by Brighton - following humiliation by Bayern Munich - and rightly so after a poor performance (xG: BHA 2.27 - 0.40 TOT), and a reaction is needed. Watford are winless and bottom of the table, but they have been unfortunate according to expected goals, ranking as the 11th best team in Infogol's xG table. They have been much more potent in attack than their four actual goals would suggest, averaging 1.46 xGF per game, so will trouble a vulnerable Spurs backline. Infogol makes Tottenham 60% favourites to get a much-needed win, with goals likely (55% BTTS, 58% Over 2.5) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @ 12.011/1
Three in a row for Wolves
Wolves vs Southampton - Saturday 15:00
Wolves caused one of the upsets of the season so far by beating Manchester City at the Etihad, with that win moving them up to 11th, and they are now just four points off the top six. Chances at both ends is the norm for this Wolves team right now, averaging 1.50 xGF and 1.49 xGA per game. Southampton are in the same boat, as they cannot keep teams out, but continue to look a threat in attack (1.70 xGF, 1.48 xGA per game). Goals are expected at Molineux (59% BTTS, 58% Over 2.5), with Wolves expected to get a third straight win (48%) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 9.417/2
No clean sheet, but a win for City
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City - Saturday 17:30
Crystal Palace have made a solid start to the campaign, and got a deserved win over West Ham last time out, a game in which Wilfried Zaha looked to be back to his best (xG: WHU 1.37 - 2.19 CRY). Manchester City were shocked by Wolves last time out, and now find themselves eight points behind Liverpool. Defensively City have serious problems, conceding 14 non-pen 'big' chances (35% chance or greater) in eight games - the third most in the Premier League. In attack they are of course sensational (3.11 xGF per game) and are expected to bounce back here (67%) but are likely to fail to keep a clean sheet again (55% BTTS) in a high-scoring game (62% Over 2.5) - 1-3.
Back the 1-3 @ 11.010/1
Depleted United to halt Liverpool winning run
Manchester United vs Liverpool - Sunday 16:30
Manchester United are in a real tough spot heading into this game, as not only are they struggling in the league, they have even more injury woes, with Paul Pogba and David de Gea ruled out for this one. United have been very poor in attack (1.15 non-pen xGF per game), but boast the best defensive process in the league (0.92 xGA per game), so are capable of keeping things tight.
Can anyone stop Liverpool? They are eight wins from eight after a deserved win over Leicester, but there are a few vulnerabilities. Defensively, their clean sheet percentage is down on last year (53% in 18/19, 25% in 19/20), and their xGA per game is up (0.86 in 18/19, 1.08 in 19/20). Offensively, they have created just 10 non-pen 'big' chances in eight matches, some 14 fewer than Manchester City, and three fewer than Merseyside rivals Everton. Infogol gives Manchester United a 54% chance of avoiding defeat here, with a 55% chance of BTTS - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 8.88/1
Blades to hold Gunners
Sheffield United vs Arsenal - Monday 20:00
Sheffield United have made a good start to the Premier League season, having collected 9 points from eight games, and got a good point at Watford last time out. Chris Wilder's side have been tough to beat this season, running both Leicester and Liverpool close at Bramall Lane, drawing at Chelsea and winning at Everton, so will fancy their chances of getting something here.
Arsenal were far from impressive against Bournemouth last time out, and though they sit third in the table, Unai Emery's side have ranked as only the 9th best team in the league according to xG. The Gunners are allowing an average of 1.72 xGA per game, so Infogol gives Sheffield United a 50% chance of getting something from this game, with a 58% chance of BTTS - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 8.07/1
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