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Premier League Score Predictor with Infogol: Why you should back a narrow Liverpool win

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Using expected goals data Infogol predict all the correct scores of a busy Premier League weekend, so you don't have to...

"This will arguably be their toughest test to date though against a high-flying Leicester side. The Foxes have been very impressive this season, and swept Newcastle aside last weekend, but the most impressive aspect of their game has been their defensive process (0.79 xGA per game), which as been the best in the league."

This season's Score Predictor tips comes from Infogol, a free downloadable app that uses expected goals to generate the best betting tips and advice. Get your helping of correct score predictions here...

Spurs to put Bayern result behind them

Brighton vs Tottenham - Saturday, 12:30

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Brighton were comfortably beaten by Chelsea last weekend and were very fortunate not to lose by a wider margin than 2-0 (xG: CHE 3.87 - 0.79 BHA). Tottenham got a much-needed win against Southampton last weekend, but all the confidence and feelgood factor that they had after that game was blown out by Bayern Munich in a 7-2 defeat (seven) in the Champions League. Mauricio Pochettino's side desperately need a win, and Infogol suggests they will get that win here (48% chance), with a 50% chance of BTTS and a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals - a nervy 1-2 looks about right.

Back the 1-2 @ [9.4]

Much needed win for Everton

Burnley vs Everton - Saturday, 15:00

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Burnley were unfortunate not to get all three points against Aston Villa last weekend, and continue to create good chances, while allowing plenty also. Everton put in their best attacking display of the season against Manchester City (2.65 xGF), but also succumbed to their worst defensive display (2.86 xGA). Marco Silva's side are desperate for a win, with Silva's head on the proverbial chopping block, but Infogol suggests the Toffees will get the win here (40% chance) in an entertaining game (57% BTTS, 53% O2.5) - 1-2.

Back the 1-2 @ [11.0]

Narrow Liverpool win

Liverpool vs Leicester - Saturday, 15:00

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Liverpool made it seven wins from seven by beating Sheffield United last weekend, and although it was a goalkeeping error that gifted them the win, the Reds fully deserved the three points (xG: SHU 1.31 - 2.05 LIV). This will arguably be their toughest test to date though against a high-flying Leicester side. The Foxes have looked a fine side this season, and swept Newcastle aside last weekend, but the most impressive aspect of their game has been their defensive process (0.79 xGA per game), which has been the best in the league. They will be difficult to break down, but Liverpool's firepower should be enough edge a tight game, with Infogol giving the hosts a 55% chance of winning in a low-scoring game (55% BTTS 'no', 56% U2.5) - 1-0.

Back the 1-0 @ [8.4]

Cagey draw in six-pointer

Norwich vs Aston Villa - Saturday, 15:00

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Norwich have looked a different team since their victory over Manchester City, losing 2-0 back-to-back against Burnley (xG: BUR 2.11 - 0.91 NOR) and Crystal Palace (xG: CRY 1.69 - 0.64 NOR). Aston Villa were fortunate to get a point against Burnley (xG: AST 1.20 - 1.73 BUR). Both sides have struggled in defence this season, but Infogol is expecting a tight and cagey early season six-pointer. Infogol rates under 2.5 goals as a 60% chance, with BTTS at 55%, so a narrow draw is expected - 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ [8.0]

First win for Watford

Watford vs Sheffield United - Saturday, 15:00

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Watford are still the only winless team in the Premier League this season after a 2-0 defeat at Wolves, but their underlying numbers aren't as bad as results would suggest. This is a huge game for Quique Sánchez Flores in his second term as Watford manager, and it won't be easy. Sheffield United gave a good account of themselves against Liverpool last weekend, but continue to allow good chances this season, and need to tighten up slightly. Watford have the attacking power to pose a serious threat to the Blades, and our Analyst expects a home win (49%), with a 57% chance of BTTS and a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals - 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.2]

Palace to avoid defeat

West Ham vs Crystal Palace - Saturday, 17:30

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West Ham were underwhelming again last weekend, and were very fortunate to get a point at Bournemouth in what was another poor defensive display (xG: BOU 2.54 - 1.55 WHU). The Hammers have allowed an average of 2.03 xGA per game, one of the worst records in the league. Crystal Palace got another good win against Norwich last weekend, and look a solid team that are hard to break down while posing a serious counter-attacking threat. Infogol gives a 59% chance of Crystal Palace getting something in this game, and a 59% chance of BTTS - a tight 1-1.

Back the 1-1 @ [7.6]

Another entertaining Arsenal win

Arsenal vs Bournemouth - Sunday, 14:00

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Arsenal were the better side against Manchester United on Monday, generating the better chances (xG: MUN 1.08 - 2.26 ARS) and were arguably unfortunate not to get the three points. They continue to look vulnerable defensively, and are likely to be involved in another exciting game here. Bournemouth impressed against West Ham, and were unfortunate not to get the three points, as they too continue to be an entertaining team. Arsenal are backed to get the win (57%), with a 68% chance of BTTS and a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals - a crazy 3-2.

Back the 3-2 @ [15.0]

Comfortable City win

Manchester City vs Wolves - Sunday, 14:00

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Manchester City were again in top form in attack last weekend against Everton, and continue to average over 3 xGF per game, so will be tough to stop. Wolves got their first win of the season against Watford last weekend, but come into this after a long trip to Turkey in the Europa League, and this game will be the last one they would want after a lot of travelling. City are heavily fancied to win (76%), but under 3.5 goals (55%) is suggested - an easy 3-0.

Back the 3-0 @ [6.8]

Saints to hold Chelsea

Southampton vs Chelsea - Sunday, 14:00

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Southampton were unfortunate to lose to Tottenham last weekend, in what was another good performance against one of the league's best. They pose a serious threat in attack (1.75 xGF per game) and will trouble Chelsea. The Blues have started to find some consistency, but continue to allow good chances (1.39 xGA per game), and will be tested here. Southampton are chanced to get something here (61% SOU or Draw), while BTTS (55%) and over 2.5 goals (51%) are likely - an entertaining 2-2 is our prediction.

Back the 2-2 @ [15.0]

Much-needed win for United

Newcastle vs Manchester United - Sunday, 16:30

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Newcastle were miserable against Leicester last weekend in a 5-0 defeat, and they were comfortably second best even before they were reduced to 10-men. They have struggled greatly this season, and have had a tough schedule, but it doesn't get any easier. Manchester United have a depleted team and squad, and that was brought to the forefront in their fortunate 1-1 draw with Arsenal. Ole's side continue to allow goals, and are far from prolific, so this is expected to be another struggle, even against this Newcastle team. United have a 52% chance of getting the win, while we are expecting a cagey game - a narrow 0-1.

Back the 0-1 @ [6.6]

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For more tips on the Premier League, check out this week's episode of Football...Only Bettor, with Betfair columnists Kevin Hatchard, Andy Brassel and Jake Osgathorpe joining host Caroline Barker to preview all the weekend action

Infogol's 19/20 Premier League Correct Score P+L

Staked: 70pts
Returned: 62pts
P+L: -8pts

Jake Osgathorpe,

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