This season's Score Predictor tips comes from Infogol, a free downloadable app that uses expected goals to generate the best betting tips and advice. Get your helping of correct score predictions here...
All square at St Mary's
Southampton vs Bournemouth - FRI 20:00
The Premier League's Friday game should be a cracker, as not only is it a south coast derby, but it sees two strong attacking teams and two defensively frail teams do battle. Both sides are generating over 1.50 xGF per game this season, while also allowing over 1.50 xGA per game, so we should see plenty of quality attacking play and plenty of suspect defending. Infogol calculates a 65% chance of both over 2.5 goals and BTTS, with a 53% chance that Bournemouth avoid defeat, so an entertaining 2-2 is chanced.
Back the 2-2 @ 14.5
Foxes to stun Spurs
Leicester vs Tottenham - SAT 12:30
The early Saturday game should also be a cracker, as top six wannabes Leicester take on another of the 'establishment' after defeat to Manchester United last weekend. The Foxes have been very solid defensively this season, allowing just 0.83 xGA per game, so should have no problem thwarting a Tottenham side that were hugely flattered by a 4-0 win over Crystal Palace last weekend (xG: TOT 1.25 - 0.72 CRY). Spurs have defended poorly this term (1.59 xGA per game), with the Infogol model suggesting Leicester should be favourites to win this game (40%), and calculating a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals, so a home win at nice odds is fancied, 2-0.
Back the 2-0 @ 17.5
Norwich to avoid defeat
Burnley vs Norwich - SAT 15:00
Burnley were extremely fortunate to get a point at Brighton last weekend (xG: BHA 1.62 - 0.44 BUR), and the signs aren't great for Sean Dyche's side after a strong start. Norwich caused the biggest upset of the season so far by beating Manchester City 3-2, creating two 'big' chances against the champions. The Canaries are fancied to avoid defeat here (50%), while over 2.5 goals should be opposed according to the Infogol model, so a low-scoring draw is expected, 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 7.613/2
Another home win for Toffees
Everton vs Sheffield United - SAT 15:00
Everton were unfortunate to lose to Bournemouth last weekend (xG: BOU 1.43 - 1.51 EVE) in what was a tight game according to xG. The Toffees will be looking forward to returning to Goodison Park again. Sheffield United were also unfortunate to lose last weekend against Southampton (xG: SHU 2.10 - 1.57 SOU) and have shown great spirit so far this season. Everton's quality should shine through here though, with Infogol calculating a 62% chance of a home win, a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of BTTS 'no', 2-0.
Back the 2-0 @ 8.88/1
A clean sheet for City
Manchester City vs Watford - SAT 15:00
Manchester City were humbled by Norwich last weekend, and while they won the xG battle (xG: NOR 1.55 - 2.73 MCI), that game was a case of quality vs quantity in Norwich's favour. John Stones' injury forces Pep Guardiola's hand a little here, though he may well have dropped either Stones or Otamendi for this game anyway, with Fernandinho expected to come in, and if he has the same impact as against Shakhtar in midweek (xG: SHA 0.42 - 2.80 MCI), City could keep a clean sheet in an emphatic win. Watford were mightily impressive and unfortunate not to get all three points against Arsenal last weekend, racking up over 3.00 xGF, though this Manchester City side is a much, much tougher proposition than Arsenal. Infogol calculates a huge 84% chance of a home win, a whopping 73% chance of over 2.5 goals, but only a 45% chance of BTTS, so a high-scoring, home shutout is expected, 3-0.
Back the 3-0 @ 9.08/1
Newcastle to get first home win under Bruce
Newcastle vs Brighton - SAT 17:30
Newcastle were comfortably beaten by Liverpool at Anfield, in what was their worst defensive display of the season to date, but prior to that they had looked very solid (allowed 1.38 xGA per game first four). We haven't yet been able to judge Newcastle's attack, as they have faced three of last season's top six in their first five matches. Brighton continue to impress, and were unfortunate not to pick up all three points against Burnley. It has to be frustrating for Graham Potter to continue to see his side squander good chances, but regression will hit at some point soon, and they will start putting chances away at an expected rate. In this game though, Infogol is siding with Newcastle (41% chance), while over 2.5 goals (40%) and BTTS (46%) aren't expected, so a dull home win is chanced, 1-0.
Back the 1-0 @ 7.613/2
Entertaining encounter at Selhurst
Crystal Palace vs Wolves - SUN 14:00
Palace were harshly beaten last week by Spurs in a game that was never a 4-0 game. Nevertheless they struggled to create, though haven't had that problem all season. Wolves were also harshly treated by the scoreline against Chelsea last weekend (xG: WOL 2.22 - 2.70 CHE), but continue to create and concede chances at a decent rate. Infogol is expecting an entertaining game, with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of BTTS, but the model can't split the teams, giving them each a 37% chance of winning, so an entertaining draw, 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 6.611/2
United to pick up another win
West Ham vs Manchester United - SUN 14:00
West Ham were very underwhelming on Monday night against a struggling Aston Villa team, creating a lowly 0.61 xGF while allowing Villa to create a few good opportunities (1.37 xGA). They are conceding an average of 2.10 xGA per game so far this season, so defensively continue to look vulnerable. Manchester United got a good win against Leicester last weekend, limiting the Foxes to just 0.57 xG, and United now boast the best defensive process in the league according to xG (0.78 xGA per game). They need to improve in attack, but should expose this West Ham team, with a 47% chance of a United win, 63% chance of BTTS and a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, an entertaining away win, 1-3.
Back the 1-3 @ 17.016/1
A rare clean sheet for Arsenal
Arsenal vs Aston Villa - SUN 16:30
Arsenal were extremely fortunate to come away with a point against Watford last weekend, losing the xG battle heavily in what was a horrific defensive display (xG: WAT 3.06 - 0.85 ARS). The good news for Arsenal though, is that they face a Villa side this week who are struggling in attack. Villa did create the better of the chances against West Ham on Monday, but are averaging just 1.06 xGF per game this season. Depsite Arsenal's shaky defence, Infogol calculates only a 47% chance of BTTS, and only a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals, while suggesting Arsenal have a 60% chance of winning, a low-scoring home shutout, 2-0.
Back the 2-0 @ 9.28/1
TReds to show superiority
Chelsea vs Liverpool - 16:30
Chelsea were hugely flattered by a 5-2 scoreline at Wolves last weekend, and continue to concede a host of good chances in matches, allowing an average of 1.58 xGA per game this season. Liverpool maintained their 100% winning record in the league this season with a come-from-behind win over Newcastle last weekend, an impressive attacking display (2.91 xGF), and their best defensive display of the season to date according to xG (0.35 xGA). Obviously Chelsea are a much bigger attacking threat than Newcastle, but Liverpool's defence is trending towards what we saw for the majority of last season, so the Blues may struggle to notch here. Liverpool are given a 47% chance of winning by Infogol, while BTTS is a 49% chance and over 2.5 goals a 46% chance, so an impressive and professional away win is expected, 0-2.
Back the 0-2 @ 14.013/1
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For more tips on the Premier League, check out this week's episode of Football...Only Bettor, with Betfair columnists Kevin Hatchard, Mark O'Haire and Jake Osgathorpe joining host Caroline Barker to preview all the weekend action