This season's Score Predictor tips comes from Infogol, a free downloadable app that uses expected goals to generate the best betting tips and advice. Get your helping of correct score predictions here...
Saints to get much-needed win
Southampton vs Leicester - Friday 20:00
Southampton remain one of the most unfortunate teams in the league based on xG, and that was the case again last week against Wolves (xG: WOL 0.96 - 1.77). They have a strong xG process, and shouldn't be underestimated here. Leicester on the other hand, are over-performing by a big margin, and were fortunate to get the win against Burnley (xG: LEI 1.11 - 1.96 BUR). Brendan Rodgers' side rank as the second worst attacking team in the league this season on xG. Infogol suggests there will be goals here (BTTS 53%, O2.5 52%), but is siding with Southampton to get the win (41%) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 12.011/1
Easy win for City
Manchester City vs Aston Villa - Saturday 12:30
Manchester City were emphatic winners last weekend against Crystal Palace, again creating a host of chances, with their season average above 3 xGF. Aston Villa needed a red card to turn their fortunes against Brighton, but took full advantage in a deserved win. Dean Smith's side have been extremely poor defensively so far this season, allowing 1.91 xGA per game, which doesn't bode well as they head to the Etihad. A high chance of goals here (70% O2.5), but another clean-sheet is likely for City (41% BTTS) in a home win (85%) - 4-0.
Back the 4-0 @ 9.08/1
Everton to double up
Brighton vs Everton - Saturday 15:00
Brighton were beaten by Aston Villa last weekend, and playing with 10-men hurt them, especially as Graham Potter continued to play in an attacking manner, leading to them conceding a host of chances. Everton got a much-needed bounce back win against West Ham last week, and they were excellent on the day, rightly getting the three points (xG: EVE 2.63 - 0.63 WHU). Their process is strong, much stronger than what we have seen from Brighton so far, so the Toffees are strongly fancied to get the win (47%) in a high-scoring game (50% O2.5, 52% BTTS) - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ 10.09/1
First win for Watford
Watford vs Bournemouth - Saturday 15:00
Watford earned a surprise point against Tottenham last weekend, but it was a deserved one based on xG, and the game could have been different had a dubious ungiven penalty been overturned by VAR. The signs are that their first win of the season is coming, and a repeat of their performance against Sheffield United here would likely see them get it (xG: WAT 1.67 - 0.49 SHU). Bournemouth were held by Norwich to a goalless draw last week, the second straight game they have drawn a blank. Eddie Howe will be looking for a reaction here, especially in attack, so expect a typical end-to-end Bournemouth performance. Goals are expected here (65% O2.5, 66% BTTS), with Watford fancied to register a win (40%) - 3-1.
Back the 3-1 @ 18.017/1
Hammers to end poor run
West Ham vs Sheffield United - Saturday 15:00
West Ham are winless in three coming into this, losing their last two, so need a bounce back here. Defensively they are all over the place (2.12 xGA per game), and have been for a long time, something Manuel Pellegrini needs to rectify urgently.
Sheffield United continue to be extremely impressive, and picked up three points against Arsenal on Monday night. While their away results have been strong, their process has been poor on the road (1.04 xGF, 1.77 xGA per game), with Chris Wilder's side fortunate to have picked up so many points. Given both sides concede good chances in matches (away for the Blades), a high-scoring game is expected (BTTS 56%, 55% O2.5), with West Ham edging things and getting a much-needed win (51%) - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.09/1
Burnley to halt Chelsea charge
Burnley vs Chelsea - Saturday 17:30
Burnley were unfortunate to lose at Leicester last weekend, as they deserved at least a point (xG: LEI 1.11 - 1.96 BUR) based on chances created, as Sean Dyche's side continue to impress this season.
Chelsea are flying at the moment, and were hugely impressive in their 1-0 wins over Newcastle (xG: CHE 2.55 - 0.43 NEW) and Ajax (xG: AJA 0.45 - 1.72 CHE), with defensive solidity starting to occur more regularly. However, this will be a huge test for Chelsea's backline, as Burnley pose an awkward threat in attack, so Infogol isn't expecting another clean-sheet (BTTS 51%). The model suggests Burnley have a good chance of avoiding defeat here (57%), and ending Chelsea's winning streak - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 8.615/2
Another defeat for Newcastle
Newcastle vs Wolves - Sunday 14:00
Newcastle's tough schedule continues this week, as they face Wolves (5th in Infogol xG table 18/19), and they are a team that are struggling. They rank as the worst team in the league on xG, and the worst attacking team (0.70 xGF per game) by a long way, so aren't expected to cause Wolves too many problems. Nuno's side were frustrated by VAR last weekend, with two goals ruled out in a 1-1 draw with Southampton. Their attacking process (1.41 xGF per game) is strong, and Infogol is expecting another win for Wolves (44%), in a low-scoring game (45% O2.5) - 0-2.
Back the 0-2 @ 12.5
Arsenal to drop more points
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace - Sunday 16:30
It was a case of same old Arsenal on Monday night, as they failed to cause many issues for Sheffield United in a 1-0 defeat. That was the second game in a row that they had generated just over 1 xGF, having struggled to create much against Bournemouth either, meaning there are serious question marks surrounding their attacking process, and defensively they haven't looked any better this season (1.65 xGA per game). Crystal Palace were comfortably beaten by Manchester City last time out, but will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing this Arsenal team, a team that they beat 3-2 at the Emirates last season (18/19 xG: ARS 1.56 - 2.19 CRY). Infogol is backing Palace will avoid defeat here (46%), in a high-scoring game (61% O2.5, 60% BTTS) - 2-2.
Back the 2-2 @ 16.015/1
More woes for Spurs
Liverpool vs Tottenham - Sunday 16:30
Liverpool saw their winning streak brought to an end last weekend at Old Trafford, but rightly earned a point in a tight game in which Manchester United's sole aim was to defend. The Reds are flying this season, not only in their results and position in the table, but their underlying process also (2.05 xGF, 1.06 xGA per game), and defensively they have looked excellent in the last two league games, allowing just 1.01 xGA in two games against Man Utd and Leicester. Tottenham's struggles this season continued with a 1-1 draw against Watford, as they again struggled in attack, something that has become a recurring theme for Mauricio Pochettino's side (1.28 xGF per game). Infogol thinks Tottenham will receive another 'L' here, with Liverpool having a 62% chance of winning, and the model suggests we may see Liverpool clean-sheet (49% BTTS) - 2-0.
Back the 2-0 @ 9.417/2
Another low-scoring game for United
Norwich vs Manchester United - Sunday 16:30
Norwich kept their first clean sheet of the season at Bournemouth last weekend, but their attacking process suffered by keeping things tighter. It will be interesting to see if that game was a one-off, as so far this season the Canaries have allowed an average of 2.06 xGA per game. Manchester United were defensively solid again last weekend against Liverpool, and remain as the best defensive team in the league this season (0.96 xGA per game). Attacking struggles continue, as they are averaging a measly 1.12 non-pen xGF per game, so they won't blow Norwich away here. Infogol is expecting a low-scoring game (52% U2.5), and a much-needed MUN win (54%) - 0-1.
Back the 0-1 @ 9.89/1
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