Premier League & FA Cup preview: Iwobi v Kone and other key battles

Alex Keble
20 April 2016

Sam Allardyce can be hopeful of a positive results against Arsenal

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Alex Keble returns with his regular analysis of four key tactical battles ahead of the weekend action in the Premier League and FA Cup, including why Leicester will be OK without Vardy and how Barkley can send Man United out of the FA Cup...

"Francesco Guidolin’s team play in a very wide and expansive style that leaves too much space for centrally located counter-attacks; if Riyad Mahrez moves into centre attacking midfield, Leicester can find joy in the same way Newcastle and Stoke have done in recent weeks."

Everton v Man United

Barkley v Carrick
Saturday, 17:15, Live on BBC One

Amidst all the excitement at the top and bottom of the table Manchester United's regression has gone largely unnoticed, but Louis van Gaal's side have scored just eight goals in their last ten games; defeat in the FA Cup semi-final will surely fast-track Jose Mourinho's appointment, despite rumours of an approach from PSG.

Everton have found greater defensive solidity in the past few games (three conceded in their last four) and thus should not be overly troubled by the threat of Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial.

The key threat to United's goal is Ross Barkley, whose long balls towards Romelu Lukaku could hurt United's defence and ultimately provide space on the right wing for Gerard Deulofeu. Barkley has not been in particularly good form of late, largely because Roberto Martinez has moved him into a deeper midfield role.

However, this should prove effective at Wembley; collecting the ball from deep Barkley's long passing range will be a vital component of the Everton counter. He made lots of these passes in the 1-0 defeat Old Trafford earlier in the month, helping to move the ball quickly into the final third where Deulofeu could cause damage up against Marcus Rojo.

Michael Carrick or Morgan Schneiderlin will be instructed to sit at the base of midfield and sharply close down Everton's playmaker. However, neither player has shown enough mobility or anticipation this season to suggest they are capable of stunting Barkley's influence. If they do not limit his time on the ball then United face elimination.

Recommended Bet
Back Everton to win at 21/10

Leicester v Swansea

Mahrez v Swansea's wide shape
Sunday, 16:15,
Live on Sky Sports 1

Jamie Vardy's suspension makes Leicester's task considerably more difficult, although Swansea's desire to dominate possession should play right into the host's hands. Francesco Guidolin's team play in a very wide and expansive style that leaves too much space for centrally located counter-attacks; if Riyad Mahrez moves into centre attacking midfield, Leicester can find joy in the same way Newcastle and Stoke have done in recent weeks.

Jack Cork and Leroy Fer made no tackles and interceptions in the defensive midfield zone against Newcastle, who dominated this area of the pitch via Moussa Sissoko and Andros Townsend (cutting inside). This follows on from Bojan's mastery of this space in Swansea's previous away fixture (he dribbled to score Stoke's second goal).

The reason for this pattern (and Swansea's abysmal away record) is that Guidolin employs a stretched shape (73% attacks down the wings) that aims at recycling possession - even when playing away from home. Aside from the easy win at Villa Park, Swansea's only other two away triumphs have been against Everton and Arsenal, in which they held 36.1% and 37.2% possession respectively. Such an open formation - with full-backs hugging the touchline whilst Fer and Cork spread out to receive passes from the centre-backs - simply doesn't work outside Wales.

Leicester are well placed to capitalise on this. They will happily sit deep and absorb pressure before launching those lethal counter-attack, but without Vardy things will be more difficult. If Mahrez plays behind Shinji Okazaki then he will find huge amounts of space between Cork and Fer to glide towards goal, and since the Japanese international makes superb supporting runs the league leaders should create chances. Demarai Gray will also prove useful in this scenario; Leicester possess the firepower to win without their talisman.

Recommended Bet
Back Leicester to win at 4/5

Sunderland v Arsenal

Iwobi v Kone
Sunday, 14:05,
Live on Sky Sports 1

This will most likely be a stodgy, clumsy contest between a Sunderland side with a powerful midfield but little technical ability and an Arsenal team easily ruffled by a physical battle. The away side's insistence on intricate build-up play could play right into Sunderland's hands, although the intelligent movement of in-form forward Alex Iwobi will fancy his chances against slow defenders; his head-to-head with Lamine Kone will be key.

Kone (9.9 clearances per match) has been magnificent since signing from Lorient in January. Sunderland have conceded just 1.1 goals per match in which the Frenchman has featured, down from a 2.0 goals per game average prior to his arrival. From the right side of central defence he will be charged with tracking Iwobi's movement on Sunday; Arsenal's teenager creates space for his team-mates with his arcing runs in between the right-back and centre-back.

Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil have both been sloppy in the final third in 2016, and up against a strong trio of Lee Cattermole, Yann M'Vila, and Jan Kirchhoff they are unlikely to be afforded the space they need to conjure opportunities. A lot will rest on Iwobi's movement and his quick one-twos with Welbeck in Kone's zone.

Recommended Bet
Back the draw at 13/5

Spurs v West Brom

McAuley & Yacob v Alli & Eriksen
Monday, 20:00,
Live on Sky Sports 1

Tottenham's thumping victories over Man United and Stoke were most impressive for the fluidity of movement between their attackers in the centre-left position; Dele Alli's drifting runs and position swapping with Christian Eriksen persistently causes confusion in opposition defences, and it is here that West Brom - crouched in a deep defensive shell - must be careful not to find themselves pulled apart.

The Baggies have recovered from a dip in form and are once again very difficult to break down. Tony Pulis' narrow, compact rows of four sit so deep as to refuse space for the through balls, instead forcing opponents to build carefully into the channels. Spurs will not find it easy and indeed will be mostly thwarted in their attempts to prise the defence apart, despite dominating the ball and playing almost exclusively in the West Brom half.

The key battle will take place where Alli and Eriksen operate. These two, accompanied by Harry Kane (who naturally makes runs into the left channel), interlink expertly in between the lines of defence and midfield. As the right-sided centre-back Gareth McAuley must ensure that he is not lured too far from his base position even when right-back Craig Dawson is pulled out by Kane's movement. Claudio Yacob is the man trusted with marking the space Alli primarily floats in, but if he becomes entangled with Erkisen then, once again, it will be up to McAuley to keep the defensive shell compact and organised.

Only quick transitions and constant movement will see Spurs break through, but in this kind of form you wouldn't bet against them.

Recommended Bet
Back under 2.5 goals at 6/5

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