Jake Osgathorpe looks at the first part of GW32 in the Premier League, using expected goals (xG) to assess the likely winners and scorelines of the games...
"Wolves kept their sixth clean-sheet in seven league games against Bournemouth, a comfortable win and another stellar defensive display. They are excellent on the road (1.7 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game), and should get another win here (62%)."
No stopping Wolves' charge
Aston Villa vs Wolves
Aston Villa were again the better team according to xG against Newcastle in midweek, but on the whole have found life difficult this season, even at home (1.5 xGF, 2.0 xGA per game). Wolves kept their sixth clean-sheet in seven league games against Bournemouth, a comfortable win and another stellar defensive display. They are excellent on the road (1.7 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game), and should get another win here (62%), though Villa will have a go in their need for points, so we could see a high-scoring game (59% O2.5, 55% BTTS) - 1-2.
Back the 1-2 @ 9.89/1
Watford to get important win
Watford vs Southampton
Watford were excellent in their last home game against Leicester, with their late equaliser the least they deserved (xG: WAT 1.7 - 1.0 LEI). They have the third best home record in the league since Pearson's arrival, with a very impressive process in that time (1.9 xGF, 1.4 xGA per game). Southampton easy winners against Norwich, and they rank as the eighth best away team according to xG, but do still possess a negative process on the road, conceding good chances (1.6 xGF, 1.7 xGA per game). Watford are fancied to get an important win (41%) in an entertaining game (62% O2.5, 63% BTTS) between two attack-minded teams - 2-1.
Back the 2-1 @ 10.09/1
Dull draw at Selhurst
Crystal Palace vs Burnley
Palace saw their four-game winning run brought to an abrupt end at Anfield, as they were thumped 4-0 at Anfield, a game in which they could only muster 0.1 xGF. Wilfried Zaha's injury was an early blow for Roy Hodgson's side, and if he is missing here, that will seriously hamper Palace's attacking capabilities. Burnley have issues at the moment with players out of contract, injuries and rumours of a fall out with Sean Dyche and the board. Nonetheless, expect a stauncher performance here against a blunt Palace attack (1.0 xGF per game), though they themselves struggle to create away from home (1.1 xGF per away game). The model calculates a 68% chance that the visitors will avoid defeat here, in a cagey game which both teams net (54% BTTS) - 1-1.
Back the 1-1 @ 6.86/1
Brighton vs Manchester United
Brighton have eased their relegation fears with four points from two post-break games, and against Arsenal and Leicester they looked solid defensively, allowing a combined 1.6 xGA. They are a strong side at the Amex (1.5 xGF, 1.3 xGA per game), and should prove a test for top four chasing Manchester United. United were emphatic winners against Sheffield United in what was a thoroughly impressive performance, both in attack and defence. They do look strong, and have done since Bruno Fernandes' arrival (9W, 4D). Ole's side should get another win here, being able to expose Brighton's defence (46%), in what should be a high-scoring game (53% O2.5, 56% BTTS) - 1-3.
Back the 1-3 @ 16.5
Just in time for the return of Premier League action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, More prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net
Infogol's 19/20 Correct Score P+L
Aston Villa 1-2 Wolves: Back the 1-2 @ 9.89/1
Watford 2-1 Southampton: Back the 2-1 @ 10.09/1
Crystal Palace 1-1 Burnley: Back the 1-1 @ 6.86/1
Brighton 1-3 Manchester United: Back the 1-3 @ 16.5